Real Exchange Rate in China：A Long-run Perspective

This paper investigates the RMB exchange rate from a long‐run viewpoint. Whether China's rapid economic growth brought about real exchange rate appreciation between 1975 and 2002 is empirically examined, based on a supply‐side model, the Balassa—Semuelson Hypothesis (BSH). The same test is conducted on Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India. Our result indicates that the BSH only exists where the industrial structure has been upgraded and the economy has been successfully transformed from an agricultural economy to a manufacturing economy. Interestingly, China, among those where the BSH does not present, appears to be upgrading its industrial and trade structure. We then try to answer the question of why past rapid growth has no significant relationship with the RMB real exchange rate and what factors are underlying the trend of the RMB real exchange rate. We expect an appreciating trend of RMB real exchange rate in the foreseeable future, presuming that China's industrial upgrading process continues and the factors pertaining to the BSH's prediction, such as rise of wage rates in both tradables and nontradables, become more significant. (Edited by Xiaoming Feng)     

产业内贸易对劳动力市场调整的影响分析——基于中国制造业面板数据的SAH检验

随着中国经济全球化进程的深化,外贸对国内经济的影响日益显著。根据平滑调整假说(SAH),劳动力市场调整成本会随着产业内贸易水平的提高而降低。基于中国制造业22个细分行业面板数据进行检验,本文发现间隔3年的边际内产业指数最为有效,且产业内贸易水平对劳动力市场调整具有滞后效应,但回归分析结果并不支持SAH。随着产业内贸易比例扩大,劳动力的产业间调整增加,而并非产业内的调整。此外,劳动生产率和国内显性需求对劳动力市场调整有很大影响,在产业内贸易水平较高的行业内,劳动生产率的这种影响更加显著,而显性需求和产业内贸易水平影响作用较弱。     

论现行刑法之人文精神——关于人性、人道、人权问题的思考

法律因人的需要而产生，也必然是为了满足人的需要而存在，以人的需求得到满足为归佰．因此．人是法律的核心。掌握人的生杀予夺大权的刑法．更应当将人作为其研究的起点和归宿，树直起尊重人性、提倡人道、保障人权的人文精神。文章拟参照古今中外刑法，探究人性、人道、人权的应有之义．审视我国现行刑法在人文关怀方面的得失，探讨其完善路径。     

宏观材料学的结构——技术科学分支的思考

本文讨论宏观材料学的结构 ,并思考技术科学的分支。全文分三段共十八个论点。“释题和思考”中 ,讨论材料学、宏观材料学、学科分支及结构四个命题 ;“宏观材料学的结构”中 ,提出了表征系统中组元和关系的结构图 ,论述了十个组元——逻辑、系统、简易材料论、材料史、材料经济、材料法律、材料选用、材料人才、材料科研、材料展望 ;最后提出四点启示——专科实用人才的人文素质 ,仕而优则学 ,交叉结合的新岗位 ,终生学习。     

以人文素质教育为基础全面推进素质教育

为适应知识经济发展的需要 ,加强大学生人文素质教育已势在必行 ,本文首先分析了人文素质教育的内涵 ,人文精神与科学精神的关系 ,然后从四个方面分析了加强大学生人文素质教育的必要性 ,最后提出了加强大学生人文素质教育的具体措施。     

一种基于族类划分理论的保险营销信息获取方式研究

保险营销中的传统信息获取模式存在弊端，本文提出一种假说，利用历史资料推断客户的保险购买模式，从而获得客户更加完整的购买信息。这首先需要对商品进行族类划分。本文探讨了一种创新型的商品族类划分的基本理论以及操作方法，并对其方法进行了部分检验。     

Institutionalized pollution havens

A multiple-principal, multiple-agent lobby group model suggests that the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on environmental policies is conditional on the structure of host countries' political institutions such as the number of legislative units (veto players). The model also yields the novel concept of “aggregate honesty” which combines veto players and corruption. FDI raises environmental policy stringency where the number of legislative units are many (aggregate honesty is high), but reduces it where the legislative units are few (aggregate honesty is low). Our panel data evidence is fully consistent with these predictions. An additional contribution is to show the empirical importance of endogenizing environmental policy in Pollution Haven Hypothesis studies. Only when treated as endogenous does environmental policy have a significant negative effect on FDI.     

Trade and Specialisation in Pollution Intensive Industries: North–South Evidence

Abstract

The pollution haven hypothesis (PHH) and the capital-labour hypothesis (KLH) state that the relative level of a country's environmental regulations and capital and labour endowments determines its comparative advantage respectively. Since these hypotheses lead to conflicting predictions as to whether the North or the South will specialise in pollution-intensive production, this paper examines whether changes in trade and specialisation patterns allow us to distinguish between pollution haven and factor endowment effects. We employ a methodology that enables us to present North-South trade patterns over time and to identify those periods when trade patterns were consistent with either the PHH and/or the KLH as a foundation for undertaking more detailed econometric studies.     

经济学的科学性意味着什么——经济学的双重属性及其研究思维

经济学的研究对象涵盖了人与自然以及人与社会这两个关系层面,涉及到自然世界和生活世界两大领域,因此,经济学本身具有人文性和科学性的双重特性,它们也典型地体现在经济学理论研究的两个相应阶段上.但是,不管在对经济学性质的认知上存在何等的不同,经济学都不能直接归入自然科学的范畴,因为无论是在科学的内涵、研究的目的还是研究的方法上,经济学与自然科学都存在很大差异:经济学注重思辨性,其理论也带有强烈的主观性和规范性.因此,尽管我们强调经济学要朝科学化的方向发展,但其科学性的麦加并非就是以物理学为代表的自然科学.     

国际贸易与环境——相关假说的评述

国际贸易对环境的影响问题在自由贸易论者与环境保护论者之间,引发了激烈的争论。自由贸易论者认为自由贸易将使环境质量得以改善,而环境保护论者则认为贸易自由化会导致环境质量的退化。在双方的争论过程中,形成了国际贸易对环境影响的几个假说。本文对这几个假说进行了简要评述,并指出了其合理性及存在的缺陷。