环境规制与区域技术创新——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

波特假说认为,恰当的环境规制政策能够促进技术创新.为了验证波特假说在我国的适用性,本文首先利用1999～2007年的中国省际面板数据对环境规制与技术创新的关系进行实证研究.实证结果显示,环境规制对核心创新指标产生了显著的正的影响,环境规制强度每提高1%,发明专利数量和实用新型专利数量就会分别增加0.17%和0.07%.结合实证研究结果,从改变资源配置、影响产业结构两种途径探讨了环境规制对区域技术创新的影响.从环境规制政策和技术创新激励政策的制定等角度提出了政策建议.     

克拉申“自然习得顺序假说”对二语习得研究的影响

＂自然习得顺序假说＂作为Krashen二语习得理论的重要组成部分,受到了二语研究者的普遍关注,同时也受到了很多的质疑。探讨＂自然习得顺序假说＂的理论基础,评述其研究方法,并且指出＂自然习得顺序假说＂存在的合理性,有助于进一步的理解该假说对二语教学与研究的指导意义。     

经济增长对实际汇率的影响:基于巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的分析

巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应假说认为经历高速经济增长的国家,其贸易品部门的生产率提高较快,这将导致实际汇率升值。本文利用1978-2010年的中国年度时间序列数据对巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应假说进行实证检验,结果表明巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应在中国是显著成立的,从长期看中国两部门相对劳动生产率的提高会带来人民币实际汇率的升值。     

注意力配置对投资决策行为影响的间接检验

现代金融市场中,海量的信息与投资者注意力的有限性使人们不得不有选择性地配置注意力,选择注意是投资者获取投资信息的前提,也是投资决策过程中的一个重要环节,利用我国证券市场相关的实际数据,间接实证注意力配置对投资决策行为的影响。实证结果表明,股评信息确实吸引了投资者注意并作出了反应,股评信息发布的形式、位置、表述方式等与股评内容一样影响着注意力配置的效果。     

New evidence on the impact of size and taxation on the seasonality of UK equity returns

The paper investigates the extent to which capital gains taxation and the portfolio rebalancing hypothesis may account for the seasonality of UK equity returns. The empirical results show that in small firm portfolios during the period of capital gains taxation, April but not January seasonality is consistent with the tax-loss selling hypothesis. The January seasonality, which is detected even before the introduction of capital gains taxation, is also consistent with the portfolio rebalancing hypothesis until the 1980s, when such seasonality becomes increasingly insignificant.     

Background filtrations and canonical loss processes for top-down models of portfolio credit risk

In single-obligor default risk modeling, using a background filtration in conjunction with a suitable embedding hypothesis (generally known as ℍ-hypothesis or immersion property) has proven a very successful tool to separate the actual default event from the model for the default arrival intensity. In this paper we analyze the conditions under which this approach can be extended to the situation of a portfolio of several obligors, with a particular focus on the so-called top-down approach. We introduce the natural ℍ-hypothesis of this setup (the successive ℍ-hypothesis) and show that it is equivalent to a seemingly weaker one-step ℍ-hypothesis. Furthermore, we provide a canonical construction of a loss process in this setup and provide closed-form solutions for some generic pricing problems. Financial support by the National Centre of Competence in Research “Financial Valuation and Risk Management” (NCCR FINRISK) is gratefully acknowledged. NCCR FINRISK is a research program supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF). The authors would like to thank Monique Jeanblanc and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions. Parts of this paper were presented at RiskDay 2006, Zurich. All remaining errors are our own. Comments and suggestions are very welcome.     

An experiment on cash and in-kind transfers with application to food assistance programs

The impact of providing food assistance in kind (via food, stamps, or restricted debit cards) vs. cash has long been a subject of debate. Prior efforts to causally identify the effects of the two types of transfers have been hindered by concerns over non-random selection into assistance programs, misreporting of program benefits, and identification of inframarginal households who, theoretically, should treat cash and in-kind transfers identically. This paper reports the results of an economic experiment designed to cleanly test some conceptual issues associated with in-kind vs. cash giving in a lunchroom meal setting. Given current debates about the healthiness of food assistance recipients’ diets, we also consider the impacts of placing restrictions on in-kind transfers that either prohibit soda purchases with the transfer or require the transfer be spent on fruits and vegetables. Overall, we find that, as theory predicts, in-kind transfers have the same effect on food expenditures as an unrestricted cash transfer for inframarginal consumers, and for extramarginal consumers, food expenditures are higher for in-kind than cash transfers. Participants also respond to the fruit and vegetable restriction as theory would predict. However, in contrast to the theoretical prediction, the soda restriction reduces soda expenditures for more than half the inframarginal consumers.     

Examining the forward pricing function of the Australian equity index futures contract

The relationship between the Australian equity index futures and spot prices is examined. Tests indicate that futures prices with one, two and three months to maturity are unbiased predictors of the spot and hence provide an efficient hedging mechanism for Australian equity index market participants, while six‐, nine‐ and twelve‐month futures prices are biased predictors of spot prices, indicating that speculative opportunities may exist in futures contracts for these time spreads. An analysis of the short‐run dynamic properties of the long‐run equilibrium relationship found that for all time spreads the futures prices respond to changes in the long‐run equilibrium, and for the twelve‐month contract, both futures and spot prices adjust to return to the long‐run equilibrium.     

对凯恩斯消费函数的实证分析——以中国城市居民消费支出为例

英国经济学家凯恩斯以1929～1933年的经济大萧条为时代背景,在《通论》中提出了消费函数的概念。凯恩斯认为虽然有众多的因素都影响着居民的消费支出,但是具有决定意义的是居民收入水平。凯恩斯的消费函数理论自问世以来受到其他的消费理论的质疑,包括相对收入消费理论、生命周期消费理论和永久收入消费理论等。对于这些质疑,我们可以用实证的方法来验证凯恩斯消费函数。     

养老保险改革对家庭储蓄率的影响:中国的经验证据

本文利用1995年和1999年城镇住户调查数据(CHIPS)分析中国养老保险制度改革对家庭储蓄率的影响,从一个新的角度解释20世纪90年代中后期中国家庭储蓄率上升的原因。1995—1997年间中国对城镇企业职工进行的养老保险制度改革使得企业职工养老金财富发生变化,这种养老金财富的变化具有外生性,因而这项改革可以作为一项政策实验用来识别养老金财富对家庭储蓄率的影响。研究结果表明:中国的储蓄行为可以由生命周期模型解释;养老金财富对于家庭储蓄存在显著的替代效应,这一效应平均为-0.4—-0.3左右;但不同家庭这种替代效应有明显差异,户主年龄在35—49岁的家庭,储蓄率会显著受到养老金财富的影响,其他家庭这一影响并不显著。