A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy

This article extends earlier efforts at redating the US industrial cycles for the prewar period (1890–1938) using the methodologies proposed by Bry and Boschan (1971) and Hamilton (1989) and based on the monthly industrial production index constructed by Miron and Romer (1990) and modified by Romer (1994). The alternative chronology detects 90% of the peaks and troughs identified by the NBER and Romer (1994), but the new dates are consistently dated earlier for more than 50% of them, especially as regards the NBER troughs. The new dates affect the comparison of the average duration of recessions and expansions in both pre-WWI and interwar eras. Whereas the NBER reference dates show an increase in average duration of the expansions between the pre-WWI and interwar periods, the new dates show evidence of shortened length of expansions. However, the new dates confirm the traditional finding that contractions lasted longer in the post-war period than during the pre-war period.     

Relationship between city size and firm productivity – A new interpretation using the Chinese experience

This paper contributes to the literature on the relationship between city size and firm productivity by focusing on agglomeration, selection (market competition), and sorting (presence of firms with diverse productivity) effects using Chinese firm-level data for 1998–2013. Contrary to the existing literature, our parametric regression estimates from nearly two million firms show that when the selection effect is controlled, productivity advantage in big cities is reversed. This outcome is explained through a quantile regression showing the existence of left-sided sorting (inefficient firms sort themselves to larger cities) in big cities which is not captured in existing empirical literature. We further find that (1) left-sided sorting is stronger in exporters than non-exporters; (2) is also generated mainly in enterprises with high asset-liability ratios; and (3) selection has a positive effect on firm productivity, suggesting that market competition is key in an explanation of the rapid growth of big cities in China.     

Agglomeration economies and university program creation in the knowledge economy

Existing academic literature on the relationship between agglomeration economies and university activities is both under-theorized and relatively sparse in terms of empirical examination. This paper addresses each of these voids by contributing and analyzing a market model of pro-revenue education program creation such as graduate-level executive business education (e.g. EMBA) that reveals some intriguing characteristics. For instance, it shows that demand for these pro-revenue programs is inelastic and therefore uniquely determines their availability. More specifically, we show that through agglomeration economies these types of education programs are more likely to emanate from universities located in metropolitan areas and from less academically prestigious universities. Regression analysis of a cross-section of national public universities lends support to important facets of our formal model by suggesting that agglomeration economies continue to increase the probability of offering EMBA programs through a city size of approximately 2.12 million and that the probability that a given business school will offer an EMBA is negatively related to the academic prestige of the institution to which it is affiliated.     

智慧专业化视角下区域资源集聚与区域创新驱动发展

传统发展动力逐渐式微，创新驱动成为区域经济发展的新引擎。走创新驱动发展道路，需要新的经济理论解释、构建并指导各区域经济增长方式和发展模式转型。智慧专业化是一种新兴经济理论，能够较好解释区域创新驱动发展的内在动力。智慧专业化有效支撑区域资源集聚与区域创新驱动发展相关性研究，从资源内存性和外向性、资源技术和经济属性以及资源支持程度3个方面，论述区域创新驱动发展的动力来源与动力持续性，进而解释区域创新驱动发展资源集聚对区域创新驱动发展绩效的影响。     

广西工业品牌拓展东盟市场的路径探析

东盟市场已经成为广西工业产品的主要出口市场,广西著名工业品牌、一般工业品牌、新创工业品牌在品牌知名度、产品质量、技术先进性、国际经营人才和经验等方面有较大差异,这些品牌所在企业在开拓东盟市场时"创建品牌"、"推广品牌"、"亮响品牌"、"伸展品牌"的路径和过程就不同,采取"单独开拓"、或"与文化产业联姻开拓"、或"与国内外品牌联姻开拓"的方式也有别,应针对不同品牌特性,采取不同的路径和对策,进一步拓展东盟市场,促进广西工业品在东盟市场的转型升级。     

咸阳市产业结构与经济增长关系的实证研究

通过对2000—2012年咸阳市产业结构和经济增长关系进行实证研究,结果表明:这一期间,对咸阳市经济增长拉动作用最大的是第二产业,产业每增长1%会引起GDP增长0.524%,第二产业对经济增长的贡献要明显高于全省整体水平,第一产业稍低于全省水平,第三产业则明显低于全省水平。未来在继续壮大第二产业的同时,更应该深挖咸阳自身的资源优势,抓住大西安建设的历史机遇,加快现代农业和第三产业的发展速度。     

东莞市产业结构与土地利用结构的相关性研究

经过改革开放后三十多年的发展,东莞市已经成长为典型的劳动密集型的制造业城市。城市在不断地发展,土地资源的有限性与社会经济发展的矛盾日益突出,使得东莞市的产业结构和土地利用结构与改革开放初期时的状态有明显不同。本文通过分析该市2005-2012年间产业结构和土地利用结构的数据及相关性,进一步理清两者之间的关系,并依此提出如何优化东莞市产业结构,提高土地利用效率的建议。     

产业升级进程中职业技术技能的发展趋势及学习提升分析——以制造业为例

分析了产业升级与技术技能升级关系,产业升级进程中企业一线员工职业技术技能的发展趋势,探讨了如何促进职业技术技能的学习提升。     

要素禀赋、政策支持与金融资源配置:产业转移的承接模式研究

本文以商务部认定的湖南、江西省四个加工贸易梯度转移重点承接地为样本,对比分析要素禀赋、政策支持和金融资源配置的异同及其影响,在总结归纳各自承接模式的特点的基础上,提出了"精品园区+核心企业+直接融资+金融助推"的较优模式,认为政策支持是影响承接产业转移的直接因素;要素禀赋的影响力有弱化趋势;金融资源配置是影响承接力和产业结构优化升级的重要因素;对待处于不同生命周期的产业转移企业,承接的工作重点应各有侧重.因此,承接产业转移要与"转方式、调结构"的战略方向一致.注重与本地的产业互补相结合,并需要金融部门的主动参与和服务创新.     

WHICH AGGLOMERATION EXTERNALITIES MATTER MOST AND WHY?

This paper revisits the ongoing discussion on the importance of agglomeration externalities – specifically specialization, diversity and competition effects – that may contribute to innovation, productivity and urban employment growth. Previous meta‐analyses suggested that the evidence on agglomeration externalities is strongly context‐specific. Expanding an earlier analysis of 31 articles, we seek to draw in this paper more robust conclusions by means of the statistical evidence for agglomeration externalities presented in 73 scientific articles, all building on the seminal work of Glaeser et al. (1992). Our results confirm that the heterogeneity among studies is huge and can only be partially accounted for by means of an ordered probit analysis. Additionally, some evidence of publication bias is found. We conclude that the conventional lines of inquiry in this literature may now have reached strongly diminishing returns. New lines of inquiry, using rich micro‐level data on firms and workers, dynamic general equilibrium models at the macro level, more attention for spatial and temporal variation in the impacts of agglomeration, and further investigations into the spatial scope of externalities are promising avenues for further research that can enhance our understanding of how agglomeration externalities continue to fuel our increasingly urbanized world.