Wages,participation and unemployment in the economic transition of urban China1

Wages, participation and unemployment are major topics for researchers of the labour market. How have these measures evolved in the economic transition of urban China? Have they evolved in accordance with those in the Statistical Yearbook of China (produced by the National Bureau of Statistics, China) and previous studies? We find that the estimated wage level based on Urban Household Survey (UHS) data was higher than that in the Statistical Yearbook in earlier years, but the relationship has reversed since 1999. Our estimated participation rate is lower than that of Giles et al. (2006) but higher than Dong et al. (2007) and Maurer‐Fazio et al. (2007) . The analysis shows that the unemployment rate is lower than that estimated with the China Urban Labor Survey data in Giles et al. (2005) . Our estimation results on unemployment rates turn out to be more similar to those in Dong et al. (2007) but are different from those in Hu and Sheng (2007) . This analysis provides the first systematic comparison of the wage level from different sources, and supplements the existing estimates on participation and unemployment using a more representative dataset for urban China.     

The pecuniary and non-pecuniary costs of job displacement—The risky job of being back to work

This paper investigates the effect of displacement on workplace injury risk and earnings using Italian administrative data on work histories merged with data on individual job-related accidents. Compared to a control group of non-displaced workers selected with propensity score matching techniques, re-employed displaced workers are exposed to moderate earnings losses and experience approximately a 79% increase in workplace injuries. This sizeable reduction in the quality of non-pecuniary working conditions is driven by the transition to new occupations and the risk imposed by new work environments.     

社会主义和谐社会的构建途径——基于社会利益多元化的视角

社会利益多元化是改革的必然结果,也是今后进一步深化改革的重要动力,在促经社会进步的同时,也带来一系列的社会问题。构建社会主义和谐社会,实质上就是解决这些问题,主要是通过建立和完善利益表达、利益协调、利益均衡和利益整合相应机制的途径来实现。     

Bills of exchange, interest bans, and impersonal exchange in Islam and Christianity

A vast economic history literature suggests that medieval institutions supporting contract enforcement were necessary for impersonal exchange to emerge. Yet this literature cannot account for the bill of exchange, an important financial instrument that had positive legal standing in both the medieval Islamic and Christian worlds but remained relegated to personal networks only in the former. This paper suggests that a seemingly innocuous difference - the involvement of currency exchange in European but not Middle Eastern bills, a difference resulting from the secular legalization of interest in Europe - encouraged divergent endogenous processes resulting in these distinct institutional arrangements.     

中日比较视角下利率完全市场化的均衡效应研究

利率作为经济运行中调控资本的比价，其市场化概率的大小对资源合理配置起着关键性的作用。通过对日本和中国利率市场化路径进行剖析，探讨日本利率完全市场化对经济的利弊，进而对中国利率完全市场化提供正反借鉴价值，最后得出中国实现利率完全市场化的诸多方略。     

Nature in Economics

Nature has been ill-served by 20th century economics. When asked, economists acknowledge nature’s existence, but most would appear to deny that she is worth much. If ecologists worry about the contemporary nexus between population size (and growth), the standard of living, and the natural environment, we economists point to the accumulation of capital and technological progress and say Malthus got it wrong. In this paper I show by an appeal to theory that economics has been so badly misused, that it has deflected attention from deep problems at the nexus that are faced both regionally and globally. Text of the President’s introductory remarks at the proceedings of Section F (Economics) of the BA (British Association for the Advancement of Science) Festival of Science 2006, at the University of East Anglia, September 2006.     

Implied volatilities,stochastic interest rates,and currency futures options valuation: an empirical investigation

Different models of pricing currency call and put options on futures are empirically tested. Option prices are determined using different models and compared to actual market prices. Option prices are determined using historical as well as implied volatility. The different models tested include both constant and stochastic interest rate models. To determine if the model prices are different from the market prices, regression analysis and paired t-tests are performed. To see which model misprices the least, root mean square errors are determined. It is found that better results are obtained when implied volatility is used. Stochastic interest rate models perform better than constant interest rate models.     

印度利益集团对其贸易政策的影响

本文利用贸易政策形成的需求供给分析框架及利益集团影响贸易政策形成的机制，分析了印度利益集团对印度贸易政策确立与演变的影响。虽然印度各种利益集团的相互博弈在一定程度上影响了印度贸易政策的形成与发展，但利益集团发挥的作用是有限的，印度政党对利益集团的利用是充分的。印度历届政府经常利用利益集团之间的斗争，推进贸易自由化进程。     

Learning about the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting

In this paper, we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in the New Keynesian model and analyze optimal policy under uncertainty about private sector expectations and the degree of inflation persistence. The novel result of our paper is that for large deviations of inflation from its target, the active learning policy is less activist—in the sense of responding less aggressively to the state of the economy—than a myopic policy, which ignores the learning channel. Moreover, for most initial beliefs, the incentive for active learning increases as monetary policy’s leverage over the long‐term interest rate increases.     

The zero-lower bound on interest rates: Myth or reality?

Unconventional monetary policy tools are based on the belief that there exists a zero-lower bound on interest rates. This paper argues, based on economic theory and the empirical evidence, that this belief is a myth and not a reality. It is shown that a negative default-free spot rate of interest is consistent with an arbitrage-free term structure evolution in a competitive and nearly frictionless market. It is not frictionless to the extent that consumers, firms, non-bank financial institutions, and banks have some realistic constraints imposed on their trading activities.