基于成都田园城市的农村地区理财方式研究

在成都建设"世界现代田园城市"的过程中,农村居民走在城市化的道路上,他们的资产结构发生了变化,他们的重要目标是实现资产的保值增值。在政策的支持下,在金融机构的配合下,如果他们能够合理选择银行存款、基金投资、证券投资等投资工具,提高农业生产技术水平,那么他们就能够达到资产管理目标,实现城乡和谐发展。     

中国工业企业投资的资本成本敏感性分析

本文以新古典投资模型为分析框架,首次使用1999—2007年中国全部国有及规模以上工业企业数据库,采用GMM动态面板方法估计了中国企业投资的资本成本敏感性,并检验了市场化改革是否显著提高了国有企业投资的资本成本敏感性。估计结果显示:(1)中国工业企业投资的资本成本敏感性显著为负,但相比净现金流系数,企业投资受资本成本的影响较小;(2)私营和外资企业的投资对资本成本较为敏感,而国有和集体企业的投资对资本成本不敏感;(3)市场化改革显著弱化了各类型企业的融资约束,但并没有显著提高各类型企业尤其是国有企业投资的资本成本敏感性。中国目前利率传导机制不畅的重点环节在企业投资,双轨制的利率模式和管制利率的低估扭曲了利率的价格信号作用,并创造了资金套利空间,加重了资金市场的二元结构特征,加快利率市场化步伐和继续深化国有企业改革是提高价格型货币政策工具有效性的必要途径。     

Monetary policy with signal extraction from the bond market

Monetary policy is conducted in an environment of uncertainty. This paper presents a model where the central bank uses real time data from the bond market together with standard macroeconomic indicators to infer the current state of the economy more efficiently, while taking into account that its own actions influence the bond market and therefore what it observes. That the central bank uses the information in the term structure to set policy creates a link between the bond market and the macroeconomy that is novel to the literature. The estimated model suggests that there is some information in US yields of maturities of less than 1 year that can help the Federal Reserve to identify shocks to the economy on a timely basis.     

House Prices and Local Taxes in the UK

In this paper, estimates of the effects of local domestic property taxes (rates) on local house prices are presented, and the effect of local taxes on owner-occupied dwelling prices is calculated for a number of English cities for the period up to 1990. The methods used enable estimation to be made of the effect of the introduction, during 1990, of the Community Charge or poll tax in England, when the local tax base was moved from housing consumption onto individual residency. It is estimated that the reform could have increased house prices by around 15 per cent and contributed substantially to house price inflation.     

Junp-Diffusion Interest Rate Process: An Empirical Examination

We investigate a jump-diffusion process, which is a mixture of an O-U process used by Vasicek (1977) and a compound Poisson jump process, for the term structure of interest rates. We develop a methodology for estimating the jump-diffusion model and complete an empirical study in comparing the model with the Vasicek model, for the US money market interest rates. The results show that when the short-term interest rate is low, both models predict an upward sloping term structure, with the jump-diffusion model fitting the actual term structure quite well and the Vasicek model overestimating significantly. When the short-term interest rate is high, both models predict a downward sloping term structure, with the jump-diffusion model underestimating the actual term structure more significantly than the Vasicek model.     

Modelling regime shift behaviour in Asian real interest rates

In this paper we investigate whether real interest rates for a number of Asian economies are constant but subject to occasional jumps using the Markov switching technique. We find evidence that all six rates under consideration have generally been stable, only shifting in response to either international or country-specific shocks.     

The age-dependent value of time: a life cycle analysis

A life cycle framework is developed to examine how the value of time (VOT) changes as one ages. We consider two risk-sharing schemes, the Tonti scheme under which wealth is actuarially insured, and the Robinson Crusoe scheme under which insurance institution is entirely absent. For the first time in the literature, we characterize the condition, in terms of key parameters for valuating VOT, under which VOT may increase, decline, or even display more complicated profiles, as one ages. Our analysis reveals the crucial role played by the relative magnitude of the market interest rate to other parameters (including the parameter of time preference, the age-specific mortality and the wage growth rate) in determining the age profile of VOT, and the difference in VOT that is caused by the insurance scheme.      

Euro adoption and Maastricht criteria: Rules or discretion?

In connection with the prospective euro adoption by the new EU members, the issue of how strictly to enforce the Maastricht criteria for joining the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has been discussed for some time. Arguments have been made in favor of a more flexible interpretation of some Maastricht criteria to take into account the specific conditions of the new member states (NMS). This paper makes a case for a more flexible interpretation of the Maastricht inflation criterion and proposes a different specification. Further, it examines the compatibility of inflation and exchange rate Maastricht targets and argues that under the specific circumstances of euro adoption, and taking into account the way these targets are defined, meeting both of them during a limited period of time should not pose a problem. Finally, the paper argues that both for short-term cyclical and long-term sustainability reasons, the NMS may aim at somewhat more ambitious fiscal targets before euro adoption than required by the Maastricht fiscal criteria.     

Decreasing Yield Curves in a Model with an Unknown Constant Growth Rate

The effect of incomplete information on the term structure ofinterest rates is examined in the framework of a pure exchangeeconomy under uncertainty where aggregate output grows at aconstant rate. If the growth rate is known, the term structure isflat. In contrast, the term structure is a decreasing curve whenagents do not know the growth rate. Long term yields are less thanthe short rate and the yield of long term bonds is determined bythe worst possible realizations of future short rates.     

The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy: The role of the exchange rate regime

It is often argued that many economies are affected by conditions in foreign countries. This paper explores the connection between interest rates in major industrial countries and annual real output growth in other countries. The results show that high foreign interest rates have a contractionary effect on annual real GDP growth in the domestic economy, but that this effect is centered on countries with fixed exchange rates. The paper then examines the potential channels through which major-country interest rates affect other economies. The effect of foreign interest rates on domestic interest rates is the most likely channel when compared with other possibilities, such as a trade effect.