关于天然气批发环节客户评价体系及精准营销的思考

近年来,中国天然气行业市场化改革不断深化,市场原有竞争格局受到挑战,但供应商现有客户评价管理较为粗放,客户评价体系不尽完善。新形势下的天然气行业客户评价及精准营销体系亟待建立,新体系遵循的原则包括:多维衡量,因地制宜;分类细化,量化评价;结合场景,灵活运用。可依据"销量、价格、效益、信用、协作"5个维度及15个指标,选取所需指标并赋予权重,获取指标数据源,运用分数归类定级方法进行判断。客户评价是工具,精准营销是措施。建议从做好精准营销基础项目、立足本职工作替客户分忧、运用大数据探索精准营销3个层面进行规划与升级。     

基于Stacking模型融合的店铺销量预测

为了实现企业产品销量预估,提高生产供应的准确性与效率,提出了基于Stacking模型的融合算法进行销量预测。算法设计了两层堆叠的模型结构,初级学习器采用随机森林、支持向量回归、差分整合移动平均自回归、轻量级梯度提升机器和门控循环单元5种单模型,将分类与回归树作为次级学习器构成Stacking融合模型,并对数据进行了预测。预测结果显示,使用Stacking模型融合后得到了较好的预测结果,比单模型中效果最好的模型的均方根误差更小,平均绝对误差更小,决定系数值更大,表明Stacking融合模型的预测准确率更高。所设计模型可用于对企业店铺的产品销量进行预测,帮助企业更好地安排生产、营销活动,为减少库存、缩短生产销售周期提供数据支持,对企业生产决策有一定的参考价值。     

Securities Transaction Tax and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Japanese Experience

This study examines the effect of transaction costs on the time series behavior of stock returns over a period surrounding the April 1989 changes in tax rates on securities transactions and capital gains in Japan. We find significant decreases in estimates of the first-order autocorrelation in returns for Japanese stocks listed in Japan, but no changes for Japanese stocks dually listed in the United States as American Depository Receipts (ADRs), which were not subject to the tax law change. We also find lower price basis between the ADRs and their underlying Japanese stocks. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that a reduction in transaction costs improves the efficiency of the price discovery process.

公平与效率:资产证券化的税收政策取向

资产证券化作为当今国际资本市场上最具活力与最有效的一种金融工具正风靡全球,也进入了中国.资产证券化作为一项复杂的结构性融资安排,将受法律、税务、会计等多种制度的影响.本文力图在资产证券化税负分析框架的基础上,阐释税收作用机理,剖析我国税收政策缺失,探索税制优化路径.     

国民政府时期超然主计思想变迁研究

超然主计制度是国民政府时期财政会计制度改革的产物,在联综组织中处于中心环节地位。文章阐释了超然主计思想提出的时代诱因,剖析了专家学者超然主计思想的产生情况,深入发掘了思想论争对于该制度深层次变迁的重要影响。     

"可税与否"未改变我国GDP与税收的基本关系——基于1978～2005年数据的实证检验

文章对我国GDP构成中不可税部分加以剔除,计算出1978~2005年可税GDP。使用相关性分析和时间序列分析的方法,研究了我国1978~2005年税收和可税GDP的总量及增量之间的关系,以及税收与可税GDP增长率之间的关系。研究结果发现:税收、可税GDP的总量和增量是协整的,并且具有高度的相关性。可税GDP增长率与税收增长率的相关性微弱,并且实际GDP增长率对实际税收增长率的解释能力很低。对照剔除前的计算结果,文章发现对GDP不可税部分的剔除并没有明显改变税收与GDP在总量、增量和增长率方面的基本关系。     

Why Have Corporate Tax Revenues Declined? Another Look

The relative constancy of non-financial corporate tax revenuesas a share of US GDP masks offsetting trends in the ratio ofcorporate profits to GDP (declining) and the average tax rate(increasing). The average tax rate rose steadily between 1996and 2003, an increase largely attributable to the importanceof tax losses. This rise casts some doubt on the role of taxplanning activities in reducing corporate taxes. So, too, doesthe relative stability of the rate of profit (relative to netassets), which might be expected to have declined had the understatementof profits for tax purposes been increasing. (JEL code: H25,G32)     

Can Capital Income Taxes Survive? And Should They?

The article surveys some main results in the theory of capitalincome taxation in the open economy; reviews recent trends ininternational taxation and discusses alternative blueprintsfor fundamental capital income tax reform from the perspectiveof an open economy faced with growing mobility of capital incometax bases. (JEL code: H21, H25)     

Reforming the Taxation of Multijurisdictional Enterprises in Europe

In 2001, the European Commission proposed replacing the currentsystem of taxation of multinational companies by the taxationof a consolidated base, computed at the level of all the Europeanentities of a multinational enterprise, and then distributedfor taxation purposes among the various jurisdictions in whichthese entities operate, according to pre-established criteria.In this article, we propose a discussion, especially focusingon two related issues, the choice of the formula and the compositionof the consolidating area—either the entire European Union(EU) or some Member States within an Enhanced Cooperation Agreement—,as well as on their impact on the size and distribution of taxrevenue and economic activity, and on the intensity of tax competition.Our tentative policy conclusion is that the reform deservessupport provided that (i) the formula puts emphasis on criteriathat the firm may not too easily manipulate, (ii) the activitiesof the multijurisdictional enterprise are enough mobile, (iii)the consolidation is made compulsory within the consolidatingarea and (iv) the consolidating area protects its capacity toactually levy tax by adopting a crediting system vis-à-visthe rest of the world. (JEL code: H32, H73, H87)     

Managerial,organizational, and external drivers of sales effectiveness in export market ventures

The authors extend sales management theory by considering the role of export sales management in small- and medium-sized firms, and they develop an integrated model of export sales organization effectiveness. Specifically, the authors test 16 hypotheses that examine the relationships among export sales management control, export territory, psychic distance, export sales performance, and export sales organization effectiveness. Using a mail-survey approach, data were collected from U.K.-based export sales managers in 146 direct exporters of industrial products. Though certain anomalies are observed, the research findings support many of the hypothesized associations, confirming the robustness of existing sales management concepts and theories in an export-marketing context.