Export entry and exit by German firms

Export Entry and Exit by German Firms. — While exports have played an important role in German business cycles, little is known about the export supply response of German firms. This paper presents a dynamic model of the export decision by a profit-maximizing firm. Using a panel of German manufacturing plants, we test for the role of plant characteristics and sunk costs in the entry decision. We find evidence for substantial sunk costs: exporting today by a plant increases the probability by 50 percent that the plant will export tomorrow. This advantage depreciates quickly, falling by two-thirds in a year. The authors also find evidence that plant success, as measured by size and productivity, increases the likelihood of exporting.     

On the Magnet Effect of Price Limits

The ‘magnet’ or ‘gravitational’ effect hypothesis asserts that, when trading halts are rule‐based, investors concerned with a likely impediment to trade advance trades in time. This behaviour actually pushes prices further towards the limit. Empirical studies about the magnet effect are scarce, most likely because of the unavailability of data on rule‐based halts. In this paper, we use a large database from the Spanish Stock Exchange (SSE), which combines intraday stock specific price limits and short‐lived rule‐based call auctions to stabilise prices, to test this hypothesis. The SSE is particularly well suited to test the magnet effect hypothesis since trading halts are price‐triggered and, therefore, predictable to some extent. Still, the SSE microstructure presents two particularities: (i) a limit‐hit triggers an automatic switch to an alternative trading mechanism, a call auction, rather than a pure halt; (ii) the trading halt only lasts 5 minutes. We find that, even when prices are within a very short distance to the price limits, the probability of observing a limit‐hit is unexpectedly low. Additionally, prices either initiate reversion (non limit‐hit days) or slow down gradually (limit‐hit days) as they come near the intraday limits. Finally, the most aggressive traders progressively become more patient as prices approach the limits. Therefore, both the price patterns and the trading behaviour reported near the limits do not agree with the price limits acting as magnetic fields. Consequently, we conclude that the switching mechanism implemented in the SSE does not induce traders to advance their trading programs in time.     

Defence and firm financial structure in France

European defence firms are progressively being privatized and the recourse to private finance in the defence sector is increasing. We use data on French firms to examine at the firm level the impact of defence dependence on firms' financial structure at the end of a period characterised by a decline of defence purchasing. In terms of leverage and financial ratios, we find many significant differences between defence and non-defence firms but also between different categories of defence firms. The results provide some support for the hypothesis of a relationship between defence dependence and financial structure.     

Implied volatility and future portfolio returns

Prior studies find that the CBOE volatility index (VIX) predicts returns on stock market indices, suggesting implied volatilities measured by VIX are a risk factor affecting security returns or an indicator of market inefficiency. We extend prior work in three important ways. First, we investigate the relationship between future returns and current implied volatility levels and innovations. Second, we examine portfolios sorted on book-to-market equity, size, and beta. Third, we control for the four Fama and French [Fama, E., French, K., 1993. Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics 33, 3–56.] and Carhart [Carhart, M., 1997. On persistence in mutual fund performance. Journal of Finance, 52, 57–82.] factors. We find that VIX-related variables have strong predictive ability.     

European steel policies in the 1980s: Hindering technological innovation and market structure change?

European Steel Policies in the 1980s: Hindering Technological Innovation and Market Structure Change? — This paper examines the effects of the European Commission’s Manifest Crisis Policy of production quotas on the growth of European minimills during the 1980s. In particular, the study seeks to determine whether the Commission-approved secondary market for the quota rights created sufficient flexibility to ensure that low-cost suppliers increased production during this period of steel industry rationalization. The empirical results indicate that the policies did significantly hinder minimill growth during the quota period but did not prevent later minimill expansion.     

STATIONARITY TESTS IN GEOGRAPHIC MARKETS: AN APPLICATION TO SOUTH AFRICAN MILK MARKETS

The paper focuses on the delineation of geographic markets in competition analysis, investigating the use of tests of price co‐movement in the market definition exercise. To this end, the first part is devoted to a conceptual framework for market definition (adopted from Haldrup (2003 )). Thereafter, a variety of price tests are explored that can be applied within the quantitative part of the framework. Similar to Forni (2004 ), the paper emphasizes the use of stationarity tests (that is, tests for the existence of unit roots) – illustrating their application to a recent competition investigation in South Africa.     

Pre‐commitment to an Exclusive Contract under Partial Regulation

This article examines the welfare implications of an incumbent’s pre‐commitment to an exclusive contract in a partially regulated environment. It shows that the contract offered to customers in a competitive market makes the first‐best allocation infeasible in the partially regulated environment. However, the contract can have a welfare‐enhancing property through the exclusion of inefficient entry or cream skimming in the competitive market, especially when the regulated price ceiling is low and the incumbent’s technology is characterized by a large proportion of common cost in total cost.     

Shareholders' choice

We address the question of which production decisions are reached via shareholder voting, if the firm's shareholders disagree. The median-voter approach is applied. Three dichotomies are explored: the one-man-one-vote versus the one-share-one-vote rule, naive versus sophisticated investors, before- versus after-trade voting. Novel asymptotic results are obtained.     

The Euro and European financial market dependence

A time-varying copula model is used to investigate the impact of the introduction of the Euro on the dependence between 17 European stock markets during the period 1994–2003. The model is implemented with a GJR-GARCH-MA-t model for the marginal distributions and the Gaussian copula for the joint distribution, which allows capturing time-varying, non-linear relationships. The results show that, within the Euro area, market dependence increased after the introduction of the common currency only for large equity markets, such as in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. Structural break tests indicate that the increase in financial market dependence started around the beginning of 1998 when Euro membership was determined and the relevant information was announced. The UK and Sweden, but not other European countries outside the Euro area, are found to exhibit an increase in equity market co-movement, which is consistent with the interpretation that these countries may be expected to join the Euro in the future.     

Regulation of credit rating agencies

Financial regulators recognize certain credit rating agencies for regulatory purposes. However, it is often argued that credit rating agencies have an incentive to assign inflated ratings. This paper studies a repeated principal-agent problem in which a regulator approves credit rating agencies. Credit rating agencies may collude to assign inflated ratings. Yet we show that there exists an approval scheme which induces credit rating agencies to assign correct ratings.