Estimating the credibility of an exchange rate target zone

Recent breakthroughs in the theory of exchange rate target zones have not been followed by similar contributions on the empirical side. The drift adjustment method of evaluating the credibility of a target zone has become common practice. However, the estimates of the expected rate of depreciation inside the band do not model knowledge of the band in the agents' information set. In this paper, a rational expectations limited-dependent variable method to estimate the expected rate of depreciation is used to remedy this weakness. In the case of the franc-mark target zone with daily data covering a 4-year period, we show that expected rates of devaluation of the order of 2.5% were still present in the early 1990s. Their reappearance in the autumn of 1992 may thus not be surprising.     

我国生物资产准则与IAS41的比较与思考

本文对我国生物资产会计准则与IAS41的异同点进行了比较分析,并在此基础上对当前和今后我国生物资产准则的完善进行了探讨。作者认为,我国生物资产准则与IAS41相比,在规范范围,生物资产确认、计量和披露诸方面实现了“大同”,但也存有“小异”;“大同”是我国实现会计国际趋同的客观要求,“小异”则是我国当前会计环境和会计改革进程的必然。从长远看,生物资产的计量应逐步由以历史成本为主转为以公允价值为主,实现计量属性选择优先序与IAS41的一致,同时,应在未来修订的生物资产准则和应用指南中充实、细化其信息披露的相关内容。     

Financial statement data in assessing the future potential of a technology firm: The case of Nokia

The paper introduces a financial statement method to assess the future potential of a firm. First, the last strategic steady phase is identified. Second, growth rate for total expenditure is estimated (growth process). Third, the revenue generating potential of total expenditure is evaluated by a distributed lag function (revenue-generating process). This function is used to recalculate expenses and assets using alternative depreciation theories. Third, financial behavior is modeled by analyzing financial assets, taxation, interest expenses and revenues, and dividends (financial process). Fourth, these processes are used to assess the future potential. The method is illustrated by the case of Nokia for the period 1990-2000.     

Entry regulation as a barrier to entrepreneurship

Using a comprehensive database of European firms, we study the effect of market entry regulations on the creation of new limited-liability firms, the average size of entrants, and the growth of incumbent firms. We find that costly regulations hamper the creation of new firms, especially in industries that should naturally have high entry. These regulations also force new entrants to be larger and cause incumbent firms in naturally high-entry industries to grow more slowly. Our results hold even when we correct for the availability of financing, the degree of protection of intellectual property, and labor regulations.     

野生纤维之王——罗布麻

文章阐述了罗布麻纤维的物质组成、形态结构,探索了提取罗布麻纤维的初加工工艺流程,分析了其药用价值和纺织保健开发价值。     

The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: evidence from three small open economies

This paper studies the impact effect of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rate in Australia, Canada, and New Zealand during the 1990s. Shocks are identified by the reaction of three month market interest rates to policy announcements that were not themselves endogenous to economic news on the same day. The main result is that a 100 basis point contractionary shock will appreciate the exchange rate by 2-3 percent on impact. The association of interest rate hikes with depreciations that is sometimes observed during periods of exchange market pressure is mainly attributable to reverse causality.     

Dynamic risksharing in the United States and Europe

We use a panel VAR model to improve upon the existing methodologies to analyze interregional risksharing and consumption smoothing channels. First, we endogenize the output process within a more general multi-equation framework, capturing the dynamic feedback between output and various smoothing channels. Second, in line with dynamic general equilibrium open economy models of risksharing, we exploit impulse response functions to trace the role of each smoothing channel over time, in the presence of different structural shocks (temporary vs. permanent and output vs. smoothing channels). In the application to the US and OECD countries, we find different dynamic properties of different smoothing channels. We compare our results with the predictions of standard risksharing and consumption theories, and tackle some of the puzzles in the literature, such as the “international risksharing puzzle” and the “consumption-output correlation puzzle.” We are also able to address such policy issues as whether fiscal stabilizers have been substitutes or complements for financial market diversification activities and whether further financial market integration is likely to provide countries with more shock-absorption tools. A key result is the strong substitutability between capital and credit smoothing in the US, and between fiscal and credit smoothing in the OECD.     

Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis

This paper investigates the determinants of business cycle comovement between countries. Our dataset includes over 100 countries, both developed and developing. We search for variables that are “robust” in explaining comovement, using the approach of Leamer (Amer. Econom. Rev. 73 (1983) 31). Variables considered are (i) bilateral trade between countries; (ii) total trade in each country; (iii) sectoral structure; (iv) similarity in export and import baskets; (v) factor endowments; and (vi) gravity variables. We find that bilateral trade is robust. However, two variables that the literature has argued are important for business cycles—industrial structure and currency unions—are found not to be robust.     

Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates

We find that in a sample of emerging economies business cycles are more volatile than in developed ones, real interest rates are countercyclical and lead the cycle, consumption is more volatile than output and net exports are strongly countercyclical. We present a model of a small open economy, where the real interest rate is decomposed in an international rate and a country risk component. Country risk is affected by fundamental shocks but, through the presence of working capital, also amplifies the effects of those shocks. The model generates business cycles consistent with Argentine data. Eliminating country risk lowers Argentine output volatility by 27% while stabilizing international rates lowers it by less than 3%.