The role of inventories and capacity utilization as shock absorbers

We examine the role of inventories and capacity utilization (of both capital and labor) for the propagation of business cycle fluctuations. We document a new set of facts regarding the U.S. cyclical regularities of inventories and capacity utilization. First, we find that capital utilization and the flows of services from both capital and labor are procyclical, and comove with the holdings of inventories. Second, we find that labor utilization is procyclical as well, but is weakly negatively correlated with inventories. We build a model that accounts for these facts, and also accounts for the stylized inventory facts, i.e., inventory holdings are procyclical, while the inventory-to-sales ratio is countercyclical. The analysis is centered on the effects of two possible shocks: preference (demand) shocks and technology shocks. Our model shows that inventories and the rate of capital utilization are mostly complements, while inventories and the rate of labor utilization are mostly substitutes. It further shows that temporary demand shocks emphasize the role of inventories as being a “shock absorber,” whereas high-persistence demand shocks, as well as technology shocks of any persistence, emphasize the role of inventories as being a complement to consumption.     

Is a Policy of Free Movement of Workers Sustainable?

In this paper, we study the costs and benefits of the adoption of a policy of free movement of workers. For countries to agree on uncontrolled movements of workers, short‐run costs must be outweighed by the long‐term benefits of better labor‐market flexibility and income smoothing. We show that such a policy is less likely to be adopted when workers are more impatient and less risk‐averse, when production technologies display stronger decreasing returns, and when countries trade a significant share of their products.     

Land prices and unemployment

We integrate the housing market and the labor market in a dynamic general equilibrium model with credit and search frictions. We argue that the labor channel, combined with the standard credit channel, provides a strong transmission mechanism that can deliver a potential solution to the Shimer (2005) puzzle. The model is confronted with U.S. macroeconomic time series. The estimation results account for two prominent facts observed in the data. First, land prices and unemployment move in opposite directions over the business cycle. Second, a shock that moves land prices also generates the observed large volatility of unemployment.     

Production complementarities and flexibility in a model of entrepreneurship

The focus of this paper is the flexibility in working hours as a motive for entrepreneurship. The model exhibits inflexibilities for workers and entrepreneurs, which arise due to complementarities in production. In addition, it allows for volatile value of leisure to make flexibility in hours desirable. Differences in occupation-specific flexibility, disciplined with the observed patterns in hours (level, persistence, dispersion) and income (persistence, dispersion), can explain relatively low income levels of entrepreneurs in the US and the occupation-specific distributions of working hours and income. Policy relevance of the model features is discussed using experiments of workweek restrictions and income taxation.     

美国劳工组织对中美贸易关系的影响——以PNTR案和货币操控案说起

中美贸易关系历来受多种因素影响,美国国内劳工组织在中美贸易摩擦的两个典型个案中起到了一定的影响。其行动的一般规则及目的需要进一步研究及分析,从而利用这些规则来为中美贸易关系润滑,减少不利因素最终提高贸易关系成功的可能性。     

Austrian economics and the analysis of labor markets

Theory and policy relating to labor markets is dominated by the mainstream labor market model, although a less well-known, socioeconomic version can also be identified. The mainstream model is methodologically flawed and forced, thereby, to relegate any (serious) investigation of labor market institutions and/or social structures to the margins of its analysis. The socioeconomic account is not so much methodologically flawed, as methodologically ambivalent. While this ambivalence does not actually prevent the investigation of institutions and/or social structures, it does promote ambiguity whenever we inquire into the precise nature of the interaction between them and labor markets. Insights from Austrian economics, when used in collaboration with critical realist methodology, can play a part in augmenting the socioeconomic account, generating a totally new approach to the analysis of labor markets.

中国劳动力错配对TFP的影响分析

文章利用一个资源错配对TFP影响的核算框架和中国改革开放30年的宏观经济、产业相关数据,估算了当前中国农业部门就业比重过大对全要素生产率产生的影响。结果显示,改革以来,劳动力错配对TFP有着明显的负效应,以不同的指标计算,在-2%到-18%之间,并呈逐渐扩大趋势。这种负的效应随着发展和改革的历程有明显的波动趋势;把总效应分解为工资差异效应和部门份额效应以后,显示中国当前的劳动力错配对TFP产生的负效应主要是由于部门间的工资差异所致。     

基础设施、拥挤性与城市生产率差异——来自中国267个城市市辖区数据的实证研究

针对我国城市空间结构和劳动生产率差异明显的现状,对我国267个地级城市的基础设施情况进行指标评价,并根据评价结果实证分析了基础设施水平、城市拥挤性对城市生产率的影响。研究结果表明,基础设施和就业密度对我国城市生产率的积极作用,同时两者的合力对城市生产率具有较强的驱动作用。     

通货膨胀、劳动力市场与工资率走势

当前的通货膨胀,属内外结合的复合型通胀。本文提出劳动年龄人口供给变动的三个阶段：第一阶段是2010年以前的总体过剩阶段,表现为劳动力买方市场,工资率被人为压低;第二阶段是劳动年龄人口占比越过峰值,但尚未达到绝对数量峰值,劳动力市场由供大于求向供求平衡转变,工资率处于劳资博弈状态;第三阶段是2017年以后,即占比和绝对数量总体短缺阶段,工资率将呈持续上涨趋势。当前处于第二阶段,由于劳动年龄人口供大于求的逐步结束和工资欠账较多,工资率理应有一个较大幅度的提升;不过要适度,因为总体上还处于劳动力由供大于求向供求平衡转变;更要着眼于实际工资的提升,因为仅仅名义工资的提升是有害的,对通胀治理不利。     

劳动合同解除的预告期制度研究

我国劳动法规定,除特殊情形外,用人单位或劳动者欲解除劳动合同,应提前三十日通知对方当事人,这三十日的期间,被称为劳动合同解除的预告期。我国劳动合同解除的预告期制度存在简单化、一刀切的缺陷,使得这一规定的制度价值被遮蔽,而违反预告期规定的法律责任的缺失又造成了该制度的虚设状态。因此应在借鉴产业发达国家和地区解约预告期制度的基础上,逐步完善我国的劳动合同解除的预告期制度。