The Euro and Internal Economic Policy Coordination

This paper reviews, mainly from an institutional angle, the objectives, forms, scope, levels, implementation and challenges involved for internal economic policy coordination after the introduction of the euro on 1 January 1999. In particular, it identifies six different aspects of coordination (procedures, exchange of information, analytical framework, monitoring, policy interactions and joint determination of policies) and analyses the rationale for coordination in eight different policy areas. After presenting some of the challenges lying ahead, the paper concludes that although an appropriate institutional framework seems in place, it still has to undergo its baptism of fire.     

Economic gains from technology-intensive trade: an empirical assessment

National investment in technological activity is commonly justifiedin terms of the positive impacts upon productivity, internationalcompetitiveness and related aspects of national economic performance.This premise has found a supportive theoretical framework inthe new technology and growth models. Based on extended technology-gapmodels, this study examines cross-country empirical evidenceon the relationship between technology-intensive trade performance(as a proxy for technological output) and per capita economicperformance, utilising 1978 to 1992 data for around 45 nations.The results provide some support for a positive relationshipbetween trade performance and economic returns. However, theweak and often inconsistent results suggest that the unconditionalpursuit of technology-intensive trade improvements may not necessarilyhave the expected net benefits.     

Econometric modelling in the presence of evolutionary change

A methodology is offered which can be used to construct an econometricmodel in the presence of structural change of an evolutionarytype. The theoretical basis for such modelling is drawn fromthe self-organisation approach and operationalised in the contextof the logistic diffusion growth model. The latter is augmentedto allow for the impact of exogenous effects upon both the diffusionrate and boundary limit. We show how the hypothesis of augmentedlogistic diffusion can be falsified using econometric methods.An illustrative case study is used, namely the growth and declineof Australian Building Society Deposits. With the aid of thisexample, it is shown how the approach could be of use to botheconomic forecasters and regulators in conditions of structuralchange where conventional econometric methods are often inappropriate.     

加快广西有色金属工业发展的思考

文章结合我国《有色金属产业调整和振兴规划》和广西有色金属工业的实际，提出了加快广西有色金属工业发展的5条路径。     

Externalities, expectations, and growth

Summary. The paper studies a model of accumulation and growth where a continuum of heterogeneous firms play dynamically optimal strategies along a (rational expectations) equilibrium. The key feature of the model is that firms' technological decisions are assumed subject to both friction and external effects. This gives rise to a wide multiplicity of equilibrium behavior, any path of sustained growth requiring that the economy tackle a never-ending chain of fresh coordination problems. This setup is modelled as a (non-atomic) dynamic game, suitable conditions being provided that partially characterize when sustained growth is a possible (never the unique) equilibrium outcome. Received: May 25, 1995; revised version: March 25, 1998     

中国财政创新激励政策的增长绩效分析

新一轮积极财政政策已全面启动并付诸实施,财政政策如何影响并激励研发创新成为理论界和实际部门关注的焦点。本文在融合资本积累、研发创新、财政创新激励政策等变量的经济增长理论模型基础上,按中国经济发展的实际情况给模型中的外生变量或参数赋值,做数值模拟试验,研究结果发现:税收优惠和研发资助两种财政创新激励政策都有助于提高研发创新量和经济增长率;税收优惠与市场研发互补,研发资助则具有一定程度的替代性,从而税收优惠政策比研发资助政策对经济增长的冲击力度更大,但研发资助政策的作用时滞更短;为提高增长绩效,应根据两种创新激励政策各自的优缺点审慎选择适用领域。     

The Otus theory of hotel demand and supply

The structural balance of an economy and the economic policies that influence its development are shown to be determinants of the volume and structure of hotel supply. Similarly, these features of an economy are also shown to be determinants of the volumes of domestic hotel business and leisure demand.     

Petty corruption

This paper analyzes a petty corruption model in which the entrepreneur’s type is drawn from an absolutely continuous probability distribution function F over [0, 1], and perfect Bayesian equilibrium is adopted as the solution concept for a one-stage game. In the one-stage game, if there is more than one bureaucrat, no project is approved with a strictly positive probability. For an infinitely repeated game, I show that the single window policy strictly increases the social benefits in a socially optimal equilibrium. I would like to thank Mukul Majumdar for valuable guidance and encouragement. I am also grateful to Kaushik Basu, Fernando Vega-Redondo, an anonymous referee, seminar participants at the international meeting for public economic theory (PET07) and especially Ani Guerdjikova and Roy Radner for helpful comments. Thanks are due to Hideaki Goto and Eunkyeong Lee for useful conversation.     

The evolution of a national banking market in pre-war Japan

This paper assesses banking market integration in Japan during the period 1889-1938 using annual data on loan rates and spreads between loan and deposit rates. Banks in prefectures further from the financial centers exhibited higher loan rates and greater spreads than banks closer to the center, however, distance effects diminished over time, suggesting that banking markets became increasingly integrated due to declines in transaction costs. Additionally, loan rates and spreads varied negatively with the intensity of local bank competition, consistent with the notion of market segmentation. We speculate that Japan’s anti-competitive banking regulation might have slowed the process of banking market integration.     

Econometrics and inconsistencies in the national accounts

Economic data are typically inconsistent with national accounting identities, contain measurement errors and are sometimes unavailable. A generalized conditioned least square procedure for the adjustment of data is proposed to deal with these problems. It is shown how the resulting data may be used for FIML estimation of the parameters of dynamic models (and the data themselves) with the aid of the Kalman-Bucy filter. An illustrative application of the proposed techniques to UK data is reported.