Compact Urban Form and Expansion Pattern Slow Down the Decline in Urban Densities: A Global Perspective

The faster growth rate of urban land than population results in the persistent decline in urban densities over time, increasing the cost of land in urbanization. We attempt to quantify influences of urban form and expansion pattern on the decline in densities in 200 global cities. We use openness and proximity to represent the fragmentation and compactness of built-up areas and collect proportions of expansion in three patterns (infill, extension, and leapfrog expansion). We first use correlation analysis to identify significant explanatory variables and then build regression models with the annual change rate of densities as the dependent variable. During two periods (1990–2000 and 2000–2014), urban form and expansion pattern can explain 1/3 variance of density changes. A one standard deviation increase in openness accelerates the decline in densities by 44 %–52 %. A one standard deviation increase in the proportion of infill expansion slows down its decline by 38 %–40 %, but extension expansion accelerates its decline by 20 %–27 %. We further build regression models in five world sub-regions and four groups of different-sized cities, and results verify the stable and robust influences of urban form and expansion pattern. We conclude that compact urban form and expansion pattern can slow down the decline in density. Land-use policies supporting compact growth are encouraged to slow down the decline in urban densities, particularly in fast urbanizing populous regions.     

The effects of population density on subjective well-being: A case-study of Slovakia

The main objective of the study is to examine the effects of population density on individuals’ subjective well-being (SWB). The physical characteristics of the built environment have recently received more attention regarding their role in influencing well-being. The research is based on two waves of a representative survey EU-SILC (2013: N = 12,791 and 2018: N = 14,665). The study focuses on the emotional domain of SWB and uses a score based on the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5). In order to remove the potential problem of reverse causality, a two-stage least squares regression model with instrumental variables is used. It shows that population density positively affects the SWB score. The results reported in this study can be useful for urban planning aimed at optimizing spatial structure while taking into account the factors which positively affect subjective well-being. The findings can also be beneficial for assessing the resilience and vulnerability of cities.     

长三角地区住房反向抵押养老保险需求研究--基于“医养结合”一体化视角

我国人口老龄化问题凸显,给传统社会养老保障体系带来巨大挑战。住房反向抵押养老保险作为"医养结合"养老模式下的新型商业养老保险,可拓宽养老金融筹资渠道,缓解社会养老压力。本文在对长三角地区人口老龄化背景下住房反向抵押养老保险需求情况进行问卷调查的基础上,运用logistc回归模型和交叉列表分析法对数据进行了分析,认为我国推行住房反向抵押养老保险应在政府推动下进行。     

The biological determinants of long-wave behavior in socioeconomic growth and development

In this paper, it is claimed that the effective causality of long-term macroeconomic rhythms, most commonly referred to as long waves or Kondratieff waves, is founded in our biological realm. The observed patterns of regularity in human affairs, manifest as socioeconomic rhythms and recurrent phenomena, are constrained and codetermined by our natural human biological clocks, themselves the result of instructions impressed in the human genome and human cognitive capacity by the physical regularity of fixed cosmic cycles. Considering that a long wave can be conceived as an evolving learning dissipative structure consisting of two successive logistic structural cycles, an innovation cycle and a consolidation cycle, and applying considerations from population dynamics, chaos theory and logistic growth dynamics, a Generational-Learning Model is proposed that permits comprehension of the unfolding and time duration of the phenomenon. The proposed model is based on two kinds of biological constraints that impose the rhythm of collective human behavior — generational and cognitive. The generational consist of biologically based rhythms, namely, the Aggregate Virtual Working Life Tenure and the Aggregate Female Fecundity Interval, both subsets of the normative human life span or human life cycle. The cognitive consist of a limiting learning growth rate, manifest in the alternating sequence of two succeeding learning phases, a new knowledge phase and a consolidation phase. It is proposed that the syncopated beats of succeeding effective generational waves and the dynamics of the learning processes determine the long-wave behavior of socioeconomic growth and development. From the relationship between the differential and the discrete logistic equations, it is demonstrated that the unfolding of each structural cycle of a long wave is controlled by two parameters: the diffusion-learning rate δ and the aggregate effective generation t_G, whose product maintained in the interval 3<δt_G<4 (deterministic chaos) grants the evolution and performance of social systems. Moreover, it is speculated that the triggering mechanism of this long-term swinging behavior may result from the cohesion loss of a given technoeconomic system in consequence of reaching a threshold value of informational entropy production.     

DOES CONTRACEPTION BENEFIT WOMEN? STRUCTURE,AGENCY, AND WELL-BEING IN RURAL MEXICO

The authors of this paper examine Amartya Sen's contributions to the concept of human well-being from a gender perspective and argue that this concept is particularly useful for explaining women's decisions on contraceptive use. The study draws on data collected in six rural communities of Chiapas, Mexico. It emphasizes the ways in which public discourse articulates the apparent benefits of having small families; the context of the household and community in which rural women make reproductive decisions; and the impact of family planning programs on women's sense of subjective well-being. In particular, it questions the assumption that reduced fertility through contraception necessarily enhances women's well-being and points to the importance that women attach to being a party to reproductive decisions. The authors also explore the links between women's assessment of these decisions and of paid work, and their actual education levels and real possibilities of employment.     

Measuring the spatial accessibility to fire stations using enhanced floating catchment method

Enhancing the spatial accessibility of population to fire services is a key strategy to help improve emergency response, minimise property loss, and reduce injuries and deaths. Given its significance for fire service policy and strategic planning, we draw on small area population forecasts, fire station locations and the road network, and employ the enhanced two-step floating catchment method to compute the levels of spatial accessibility of population to fire services in relation to current and future population growth in Brisbane, Australia. Results show that lower levels of spatial accessibility to fire services exist in the most populated areas compared to those that are least populated. Further, we reveal that some areas are more likely to suffer a reduction in spatial accessibility than others. Spatial accessibility of population to fire services over the period to 2036 is likely to reduce as a consequence of rising demand for service. The identification of locales that experience lower levels of accessibility to fire services will enable fire services agencies to strategically plan infrastructure investment and help enhance the operational efficiency of emergency response.     

Population pressure and soil quality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Panel evidence from Kenya

Population pressure on farmlands can have two opposing effects on soil quality. It can negatively affect soil quality due to more frequent and intensive use of farmlands, but also can induce transition of farming methods towards more intensive farming in which more fertilizer and improved seeds are used in order to make smaller farmlands more productive. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the net effect is likely to be negative given the region’s current low fertilizer use. Recent studies, however, show evidence of agricultural intensification in regions with high population pressure. It is important to analyze the extent and speed of soil degradation and its relationship with population pressure. Nonetheless, empirical studies on this topic are almost non-existent, partly because soil quality is shaped over a long time horizon, and quality panel data on this issue are rare. We use unique panel data for rural households containing soil quality information from Kenya to elucidate the effect of population pressure on soil quality. We find that population pressure reduces soil quality and also induces agricultural intensification. This suggests that although farmers are trying to mitigate the negative effect of population pressure on soil quality, the rate of soil degradation is outpacing that of intensification.     

Changes of livelihood due to land use shifts: A case study of Yanchang County in the Loess Plateau of China

Studies of land use policies are commonly based on the environmental impacts or on people's direct responses to the policies. However, research on the impact of policy implementation on people's livelihood and activities and the subsequent economic development of an area is incomplete. We selected Yanchang County as an example to track land use changes and their effects on the livelihood of the local population following the implementation of a new land use policy known as the Grain for Green Project (GGP). The data were collected from statistical yearbooks, questionnaire surveys, and satellite imagery from 1990, 2000, and 2008. We found that dramatic land use changes have occurred in Yanchang County. The vegetation coverage improved significantly from 1990 to 2008, as the grassland and forest areas increased from 44.1% to 60.1% and from 17.7% to 18.4% of the total land area, respectively. The cultivated land declined from 37.3% to 20.7%. With the agricultural area and grain production decreasing from 64 × 10³ tons to slightly over 20 × 10³ tons per year, an increasing number of local people sought employment in towns and cities. The non-farm income increased, and the local income structure shifted. Migrant and orchard worker income contributed the most to the balance of the total household income. We narrowed our focus to discuss how the GGP accelerated the changes in the participants’ lifestyles and what might be done to sustain the long-term effects of the GGP. While the GGP has brought about considerable environmental benefits, a comprehensive study of environmental–social systems is still needed to achieve a more efficient land use policy. The research results presented in this paper demonstrate that changes in land use and people's activities were triggered by policy changes. We aim to pave the way for studies on the “policy-land-use-social development” chain and to provide references for new policies.     

Pension reforms and saving gains in the United Kingdom

The empirical validity of the effect of pension reforms on domestic savings in the UK has been investigated using an Auto‐regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model capable of testing for the existence of a long‐run relationship regardless of whether the underlying time series are individually I(1) or I(0). The total savings response to change in pension savings is positive and significant, but an increase in occupational pension saving appears offset by a decrease in other forms of saving. This paper concludes that there is no firm evidence that aggregate savings increase considerably because of privately funded pension schemes.     

重读《公开信》 再论生育观——兼谈我国人口政策的未来选择

1980年9月5日中共中央《关于控制人口增长问题致全体共产党员、共青团员的公开信》所引发的人口发展方式和生育观念的双重转变,彻底改变了我国人口发展大局以及支撑人口发展的生育文化氛围。继续推进先进生育文化建设,以及坚持数量控制为先,同时兼顾对结构问题的治理,是《公开信》给我国人口未来发展带来的重要启示。