Partial moment volatility indices

Forward‐looking partial moment volatility indices are developed using state‐pricing, called the bear index (BEX) and bull index (BUX). Using S&P 500 index (SPX) option prices, we find that BEX and BUX provide superior forecasts for the lower and upper partial moments of future market realised volatility, respectively. We examine the relation between SPX returns and changes in BEX and BUX at the daily level. Results are consistent with the volatility feedback hypothesis. Further, we show that BEX may be more suitable as the ‘investor fear gauge’ than VIX.     

Shadow costs of incomplete information and short sales in the valuation of the firm and its assets

This paper presents a simple framework for the valuation of compound options within shadow costs of incomplete information and short sales. The shadow cost includes two components. The first component is the product of pure information cost due to imperfect knowledge and heterogeneous expectations. The second component represents the additional cost caused by the short-selling constraint. Information costs are linked to Merton's (1987. Journal of Finance 42, 510) model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information, CAPMI. This model is extended by Wu et al. (1996. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 7, 136) who propose an incomplete-information capital market equilibrium with heterogeneous expectations and short sale restrictions, GCAPM. This model is used in our paper to provide for the first time in the literature analytic solutions for derivatives in the presence of both shadow costs of incomplete information and short sales.When deriving the compound call option formula, we consider a call option on a stock, which is itself an option on the assets of the firm. Our methodology incorporates shadow costs of incomplete information and short sales on the firm's assets as well as the effects of leverage in the capital structure. The formula can be useful in the valuation of several corporate liabilities in the presence of information uncertainty and short sales constraints about the firm and its cash flows. Our analysis can be used for the valuation of several real options.     

The importance of security for hostel price premiums: European empirical evidence

Our aim is to study the impact of hostel guest reviews posted on a consumer-generated website on hostel price premiums. More specifically, we study the effect of guests' ratings of six hostel characteristics—atmosphere, cleanliness, facilities, location, staff and security—on hostel price premiums. Given the importance of security, location and cleanliness to hostel price premiums, we analyse whether the impact of guests' ratings of these three characteristics is higher for hostels in countries with the highest crime indexes. To answer our research questions, we collect data on consumer reviews of 383 hostels in 12 European capitals, which are grouped according to crime level, from Hostelworld.The results show that guests are willing to pay a higher price and/or higher price premium in European countries with the highest crime indexes if a hostel has higher levels of security, cleanliness and location. These findings are consistent with previous studies in other fields.     

Price and quality decisions in a vertically-differentiated supply chain with an “Online-to-Store” channel

Because of the prevalence of “Online-to-Store (OS)” channel, customers can purchase differentiated products online and pick up in-store. We develop a Stackelberg game-theoretic model to study the impact of an OS channel on quality levels, demands, prices, and profits of a manufacturer and a retailer in a supply chain. We assume that the retailer acts as a Stackelberg leader, and the manufacturer acts as a Stackelberg follower. The manufacturer produces and sells two products with vertically-differentiated quality levels to the retailer who in turn sells the products to customers through a Store channel, an Online channel, or an OS channel. The retailer incurs a handing cost if the OS channel is available, and consumers bear a shipping cost and a transaction cost when the products are purchased from the Online and Store channels, respectively. We find that the manufacturer should reduce both products’ quality levels and wholesale prices, whereas the retailer can increase the selling prices for a relatively small shipping cost and a not too small handling cost. When the products are available both online and in-store, however, the quality levels, wholesale prices and selling prices might increase for a small shipping cost and a not too small handling cost. Compared to the case in which both products are available online only with the OS channel, adding the Store channel is always beneficial for both parties. The intuition behind these results hinges on the trade-off between the handling cost and the increased market demand for the retailer. Moreover, the quality levels, the wholesale prices of both products, and the selling price of the low-quality product would decrease, while the selling price of the high-quality product increases for a sufficiently low transaction cost and a not too small shipping cost.     

A game theoretic approach for analyzing the competition between national and store brands by considering store loyalty

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Product price and performance level in one market or two separated markets under various cost structures and functions

Market characteristics, including intrinsic demand and customer sensitivity on price and product performance level, are distinct at different markets. Comparisons of various product development strategies in one market or two geographically separated markets are conducted for three classes of products: development intensive products (DIPs) with constant unit cost, marginal cost-intensive products (MIPs) with constant fixed cost, and marginal and development intensive products (MDIPs) with non-constant unit cost and fixed cost. Results show that larger demand size, less customer sensitivity on price and/or more sensitivity on performance level lead to more profit, a higher sale price and a not-lower product performance. The customer reservation or the saturation performance level should be generally adopted though the optimal performance level does exist occasionally. Unit cost and/or fixed cost must increase in performance at an increasing rate for the existence of one optimal performance level. Due to the impact of demand size, one high-end (low-end) MDIP or DIP could be introduced into one low-end (high-end) market at a different price if the demand size is significantly large in the low-end market. For DIPs, offering one niche high-end product is not worse than offering the low-end product into two markets. For MIPs with negligible fixed cost, the product line strategy is not worse than the standard product development strategy. Additionally, the product cost reduction approach adopted in one product line has significant effects on the best product development strategy and sequence.     

预售模式下酒店客房定价及最优超售量确定的研究

创新驱动战略下国内服务业的发展取得了长足进步．为服务业提供了完善的预订制度且高效的预订系统，酒店业是一个采用预订系统销售自身产品的典型服务业，其预订流程非常完善。分析了在预售期内带有预订取消现象且预订未取消的旅客随机到达的情况下．构建数学模型就预售期内服务产品的定价及产品最优超售量问题进行了研究。     

Financial markets with volatility uncertainty

We investigate financial markets under model risk caused by uncertain volatilities. To this end, we consider a financial market that features volatility uncertainty. We use the notion of G-expectation and its corresponding G-Brownian motion recently introduced by Peng (2007) to ensure a mathematically consistent framework. Our financial market consists of a riskless asset and a risky stock with price process modeled by geometric G-Brownian motion. We adapt the notion of arbitrage to this more complex situation, and consider stock price dynamics which exclude arbitrage opportunities. Volatility uncertainty results in an incomplete market. We establish the interval of no-arbitrage prices for general European contingent claims, and deduce explicit results in the Markovian case.     

Estimating the duration of different seasons and their impact on hotel room prices

The purpose of the study is to accurately measure the span of different seasons and its effect on the fluctuation of the occupancy rate and the average room rates in the hospitality sector. While prior studies have concentrated on measuring seasonality using calendar months, this study takes a different approach by measuring seasons in terms of the date count so that the exact starting and ending date of a season can be identified. This step involves adopting a non-parametric methodology that split the time scale into several small parts to obtain a better fit of the relationship and that can detect the starting and end of the season when given specific dates.     

The effect of specific discount pattern in terms of price promotions on perceived price attractiveness and purchase intention: An experimental research

This study aims to investigate consumer perceptions and reactions in terms of specific discount patterns (fixed price, 40% discount, discount from 500 TL to 300 TL and 20% + 25% discount) in price promotion. According to the results, specific discount patterns in price promotion have a significant effect on perceived price attractiveness and purchase intention. When the specific discount patterns in price promotion and gender interaction were analyzed in terms of perceived price attractiveness, the scenario of the “discount from TL 500 to TL 300” significantly differentiated from both the control scenario (fixed price) and experimental scenarios for female. For males, no significant difference was found between the control and experimental scenarios. In terms of purchase intention, a significant difference was found between the fixed price scenario and the discount scenario from 500 TL to 300 TL and between the fixed price and 20% + 25% discount scenario. The theoretical managerial implications of the study were discussed, and future research suggestions were presented.