Who voted for Brexit? Individual and regional data combined

Previous analyses of the 2016 Brexit referendum used region-level data or small samples based on polling data. The former might be subject to ecological fallacy and the latter might suffer from small-sample bias. We use individual-level data on thousands of respondents in Understanding Society, the UK's largest household survey, which includes the EU referendum question. We find that voting Leave is associated with older age, white ethnicity, low educational attainment, infrequent use of smartphones and the internet, receiving benefits, adverse health and low life satisfaction. These results coincide with corresponding patterns at the aggregate level of voting areas. We therefore do not find evidence of ecological fallacy. In addition, we show that prediction accuracy is geographically heterogeneous across UK regions, with strongly pro-Leave and strongly pro-Remain areas easier to predict. We also show that among individuals with similar socio-economic characteristics, Labour supporters are more likely to support Remain while Conservative supporters are more likely to support Leave.     

'THE LAW OF STORMS': EUROPEAN AND INDIGENOUS RESPONSES TO NATURAL DISASTERS IN COLONIAL INDIA, c. 1800–1850

Focusing on collective response to storms and floods in early colonial India, the paper explores obstacles to successful disaster response with one example related to meteorology of cyclones and the other the use of embankments. In both these examples, there was an attempt to build public-private partnerships, which succeeded in the case of weather prediction and failed in river embankment. The failure is explained by two factors. Coordination and contracting were costly when the private partners had variable capacities and interests. Furthermore, whereas meteorology predicted nature, embankments interfered with nature, an intervention which carried social and economic costs.     

SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS AND NETWORKS IN THE CASE OF SEMICONDUCTOR LASER TECHNOLOGY IN THE US AND JAPAN, 1960s–2000s

United States organisations took a clear lead in semiconductor laser research until the mid‐1970s. After the 1980s, many important breakthroughs were developed by Japanese organisations. Exploring the journal Applied Physics Letters, this study examines how semiconductor laser technology developed in these two countries and how this change in the country‐level industrial leadership in the scientific research occurred. Examining the relationship among industrial organisations, research networks, and scientific breakthroughs, it discusses how these coevolved and how breakthroughs were channelled in different directions. R&D targets were channelled into small markets in the US, but were concentrated into the same markets in Japan.     

Market‐Supporting Institutions,Gild Organisations,and the Industrial Revolution: A Comparative View

This article investigates the conditions for the emergence of the agents of the Industrial Revolution by comparing the market‐supporting institutions in pre‐modern England and China. Market‐supporting institutions in pre‐modern England supported group mobility and expansion of laws, which permitted the forthcoming of new entrepreneurs critical for launching industrial ventures. By contrast, market‐supporting institutions in pre‐modern China, although supporting individual mobility, led to stable social stratification and stagnancy in law development, which did not provide appropriate conditions for the emergence of industrial entrepreneurs.     

SOJOURNERS OR A NEW DIASPORA? ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE MOVEMENT OF CHINESE MINERS TO THE SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC GOLDFIELDS

Chinese gold seekers were the largest non-British group on the goldfields of Australasia and constituted the largest nationality on some diggings. In considering the movement of Chinese miners to and throughout the goldfields colonies of the southwest Pacific, this articles argues there existed a more complex pattern of migration than that suggested by the sojourner model of arrival, brief stay and departure. It examines the links between migration patterns and economic activity, and argues that economic history perspectives complement the insights offered by recent social and cultural history in the field.     

The Economic Benefits of the Biological Control of Rabbits in Australia, 1950–2011

Wild European rabbits are serious agricultural and environmental pests in Australia; myxoma virus and rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus have been used as biocontrol agents to reduce impacts. We review the literature on changes in rabbit numbers together with associated reports on the economic benefits from controlling rabbits on agricultural production. By using loss–expenditure frontier models in with and without biocontrol scenarios, it is conservatively estimated that biological control of rabbits produced a benefit of A$70 billion (2011 A$ terms) for agricultural industries over the last 60 years. The consequences for ongoing rabbit control and research investment are discussed.     

Structural stability of P/E ratios of common stocks

Earlier studies have reported that the average price/earning ratios (P/E ratios) of groups of firms tend to maintain over time their ranks within their industry classes. This study looks at the rank stability of P/E ratios of individual stocks, without regard to their industry labels. Based on a sample of 429 stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange, and covering the period 1960–1976, this study concludes that individual stocks exhibit significant stability in their P/E ratio ranks, more strongly so over shorter periods of time. This tendency has implications in investment management.     

Preferences for compensation options

An analysis of preferences for compensation options was performed for a sample of employees in one organization. The organization was sampled at two points in time, approximately one year apart. The first sample was a stratified random sample of managerial and nonmanagerial employees (N = 101). The second sample contained a repeat sample of 48 individuals and a random sample of 80 individuals for a total (N = 128). The sampling procedure allowed for both cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis. The analysis of compensation preferences was based on the set of compensation items currently available to all employees. The results indicated a marked stability of preferences for the longitudinal sample (N = 48), and a systematic crosssectional variance in preferences at both time periods based on age and salary levels of employees. The results of this research lend credence to both cafeteria-style compensation programs and portable pensions.     

The internal impact of a customs union; Baden and the Zollverein

Tariffs can affect the growth of states. But how do they affect regional growth within states? Using Baden's 1836 entry into the Zollverein, the customs union of German states, I investigate the internal impact of a change in tariffs. With a new data set of regional employment data I demonstrate that the Zollverein had a substantial positive effect. Two market access effects are shown, one follows the standard market access predictions and the second triggers the direct investment by Swiss entrepreneurs in German regions close to their home base. Furthermore occupational change within the crafts sector was shifting labour towards higher taxed occupations and towards the region close to Switzerland.