A VERY BRITISH PHENOMENON? INDUSTRIAL POLITICS AND THE DECLINE OF THE JAPANESE COAL MINING INDUSTRY SINCE THE 1950S

This paper describes how the Japanese government gradually abandoned its support for coal mining after 1945. Drawing parallels with the British experience during the 1930s, this article shows how coal miners and owners in Japan were able to slow the pace of economic adjustment from the 1950s. The government's initial reluctance to act reflected its willingness to put industrial politics to the fore, preferring to avoid alienating political support and aggravating a vocal unionised sector of the labour force. It eventually accepted and acted upon the need for draconian retrenchment.     

Winners and Losers during a Deep Economic Crisis: Firm‐level Evidence from Indonesian Manufacturing*

What happens to firms during periods of deep economic crisis? Depending on the nature of the crisis, the general effects are well known. However, owing to data availability, there are relatively few detailed firm‐level studies. With the aid of an unusually rich database, the present paper investigates the effects of Indonesia's 1997–1998 crisis on manufacturing establishments. Consistent with studies of other crisis episodes, foreign ownership and prior export orientation are found to be highly significant determinants of survival and recovery. The effects of firm size are ambiguous. The industry in which firms are located, in particular its factor proportions, is also found to be significant.     

Yesterday's Bad Times Are Today's Good Old Times: Retail Price Changes Are More Frequent Today Than in the 1890s

This paper documents differences in the nominal rigidity of retail prices across two 28-month periods: 1889–91 and 1997–99. The most striking finding is that prices changed much less frequently in 1889–91. In the late-1800s when price changes did occur they were smaller on average and more narrowly distributed with fewer small or large price changes. Further, price changes were more permanent 100-plus years ago. These differences are consistent with a high occurrence of temporary price shocks and a higher cost of changing prices in 1889–91 than in 1997–99.     

FOREIGN TRADE, COMMERCIAL POLICIES AND THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE SONG AND MING DYNASTIES OF CHINA

The paper presents a framework to explore the trade-off between pro-authority and pro-efficiency foreign trade policy. The former is exemplified by the tributary foreign trade system in Imperial China, while the latter by the government-supervised private foreign trade. In the Song Dynasty (960–1276), a strong external enemy compelled the monarchy to choose a pro-efficiency trade policy to finance the army, whereas during the early Ming Dynasty (1368–1644) when China was strong a pro-authority trade policy was favoured. During the late Ming, as the dynasty weakened, accompanied by external threats and internal mismanagement, the imperial government once again chose a pro-efficiency trade policy.     

REGIONAL GDP IN BRITAIN, 1871–1911: SOME ESTIMATES

The paper builds on a method proposed by Geary and Stark for estimating regional incomes in Victorian Britain. This is modified by using tax data to allocate non‐wage income across regions. The results suggest that the coefficient of variation of regional GDP per head was rising rapidly prior to World War I in similar fashion to the late 20th century such that its level in 1901 and 2001 was about the same. In both episodes of globalization there were big winners and big losers among British regions.     

Human capital and economic development

This paper develops a general equilibrium model of fertility and human capital investment with young adult mortality. Because young adult mortality is negatively related to average young adult human capital, human capital accumulation lowers mortality, inducing demographic transition and industrial revolution. Data confirm that young adult mortality is related negatively to schooling, and the rate of return to schooling, and positively to fertility. The data indicate a negative relationship between TFP growth and schooling accumulation. The model fits the data on country populations, per capita incomes, human capital, total fertility rates, infant mortality, life expectancy and conditional life expectancy.     

Calculating the cost of irrigation induced soil salinization in the tungabhadra project

Irrigation projects in developing countries have a history of poor performance. Inefficiencies result as water applications deviate from plans and induce greater than projected rates of soil degradation through water logging and salt accumulation. Over time, the collective impact of these forces will converge to an equilibrium with a level of output that may be far below the system’s potential. The Tungabhadra Project in south west India is experiencing all of these problems. Integrating geographic, hydrologic, biologic and economic features, the lost production value is estimated for a range of equilibria to which this system may converge. For the lower left bank main canal of the Tungabhadra project, the total economic cost of soil degradation are approximately 14.5% of the system’s productive potential while sub-optimal distribution losses may approach 37.1%.     

International trade and finance: Complementaries in the United Kingdom 1870-1913 and the United States 1920-1930

Do international trade and finance flow together? In a variety of theoretical models, trade and finance can be shown to have the potential to be substitutes or complements, so the matter must be resolved empirically. We study trade and financial flows from the United Kingdom from 1870 to 1913 and the United States in the interwar years. These were the two major capital exporters and key financial centers in each era. We find that trade and finance were robustly correlated for each case. We consider simultaneity issues. We also discuss evidence from the British Empire which casts doubt on the idea that trade is a punishment device in the event of a default.     

A historical overview of financial crises in the United States

One of the few constants since the United States declared its independence is the presence of frequent financial crises with similar causes. In the nineteenth century, these panics were frequent with eight occurring over the century. However, following the Second World War there was a period of relative calm, which may have led to complacency. The Savings and Loans and the current financial crises have shown that these events remain a very real threat to economic stability.