De-industrialisation and the balance of payments in advanced economies

This paper defines de-industrialisation as a secular declinein the share of manufacturing in national employment. De-industrialisation,in this sense, has been a widespread feature of economic growthin advanced economies in recent decades. The paper considersbriefly what explains this development and quantifies some ofthe factors responsible. It then examines the experience ofBritain and America, which are two countries that have combinedrapid de-industrialisation with a strong overall economic performance.The paper considers both the domestic situation of manufacturingindustry in these countries and its foreign trade performance.It concludes by examining in detail the British balance of payments,and documenting how improvements in the non-manufacturing spherehave helped offset a worsening performance in manufacturingtrade.     

国外开展环境绩效评估的情况及对我国的启示

环境绩效评估是一种开放的而且有效的环境管理工具。随着人们对环境问题认识水平的不断深化,环境绩效评估在各种层次上都获得广泛应用。国外的环境绩效评估研究和实践已经取得了一定成果,而国内的相关研究和实践却相对落后,这与当前我国环境污染严峻形势和任务要求相比极不相称。首先,阐述了环境绩效评估的相关概念;然后,就OECD EPR、GMA EPA以及EPI三种具有代表性的环境绩效评估方法进行了评述;进而探讨了国外的经验对我国开展环境绩效评估的启示。希望有助于我国环境绩效评估的开展。     

Is the environmental performance of industrialized countries converging? A ‘SURE’ approach to testing for convergence

In this paper, we test for convergence in the environmental performance of a sample of OECD countries, with data ranging from 1971 to 2002. First, we use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to compute two environmental performance indicators (EPIs) in the production theory framework. Second, we propose the use of a sequential multivariate approach to test for convergence in environmental performance. These tests allow us to reconcile the time series literature with the cross-sectional dimension, which is basic when testing for convergence in regional blocs. The SURE technique is used, which allows for the existence of correlations across the series without imposing a common speed of mean reversion. The empirical results show that the group of countries as a whole, as well as the majority of countries considered on an individual basis (results for some countries vary between EPIs), are catching-up with Switzerland (the benchmark country).     

Harnessing the political economy of environmental policy: David Pearce’s contribution to OECD

During 34 years, David Pearce made major contribution to OECD work on environmental economic issues, with a particular focus on cost–benefit analysis, economic instruments, biodiversity and distributive issues. This article provides a brief review of David Pearce’s contributions. This work was particularly useful in enhancing the political economy of environmental policy which is at the core of OECD work. The opinions expressed in this paper reflect the author’s perception of this long history of the development of environmental economics at OECD; it does not necessarily reflect the views of the OECD and its member countries. Many thanks to Jonathan Fisher, Nick Johnstone and Michel Potier for their comments on an earlier draft.     

A comparison of the poverty impact of transfers, taxes and market income across five OECD countries

This paper compares the poverty reduction impact of income sources, taxes and transfers across five OECD countries. Since the estimation of that impact can depend on the order in which the various income sources are introduced into the analysis, it is done by using the Shapley value. Estimates of the poverty reduction impact are presented in a normalized and unnormalized fashion, in order to take into account the total as well as the per dollar impacts. The methodology is applied to data from the Luxembourg Income Study database.     

市场准入规范化对绿色增长水平的影响——基于经济合作与发展组织绿色增长战略视角

为了考察市场准入规范化对绿色增长水平的影响,本文基于经济合作与发展组织绿色增长战略视角测度中国绿色增长水平,并且将国务院于2015年10月发布的《国务院关于实行市场准入负面清单制度的意见》作为政策冲击事件,采用双重差分法进行实证检验。研究结果表明：（1）1998—2017年,中国绿色增长水平无论是总体层面,还是东部、中部、西部地区都呈现逐年波动上升的趋势;（2）中国绿色增长水平排名较高的省份主要集中在东部地区,而西部地区排名较为靠后;（3）负面清单制度实施有利于提高中国绿色增长水平。在经济转型时期,本文为厘清中国市场准入规范化改革关键性政策,促使市场发挥对资源配置的决定性作用,以及政府实现分工合理、权责一致、运转高效的机制提供有力的理论支撑和经验参考。     

农业支持政策结构变迁的国际比较分析

[目的]在多哈回合谈判再次要求削减黄箱政策背景下,通过量化比较分析典型发达国家和地区在多哈回合谈判前后农业支持政策结构变化趋势,为中国农业供给侧结构性改革背景下农业支持政策改革提供方向借鉴。[方法]使用OECD农业政策评价指标对比分析欧盟、美国、日本和中国4个国家和地区农业支持力度、支持结构的变化趋势。[结果]发达国家和地区积极创新农业支持手段以替代市场价格支持,加快农业支持政策的市场化转变,强调支持政策与资源环境保护的交互作用,注重对农业知识和创新体系的资金投入。[结论]我国应持续加大对农业的支持力度,逐渐减少市场价格支持比重,创新支持工具并强化政策间的协调性,优化一般服务支持结构,加大对农业知识和创新体系的财政投入。     

Recessions and Potential Output: Disentangling Measurement Errors,Supply Shocks,and Hysteresis Effects*

This paper investigates expert revisions of potential output (PO) estimates following recessions. Using data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), we show that downward revisions are substantial, permanent, and mostly driven by supply shocks. In contrast, PO estimates do not significantly react to demand shocks. Revisions are also partly caused by mismeasurement of PO before recessions. In particular, we show that the length of the preceding boom and pre-recession values of the current account balance and credit volumes are correlated with post-recession PO revisions. Our results call for improved methods for estimating PO and provide evidence against the existence of substantial hysteresis following demand shocks.     

Comprehending the outward FDI from Latin America and OCED: A comparative perspective

This study examines the determinants of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) from Latin American countries and compares it with their OECD counterparts. Our analysis is based on a sample of 45 countries, 13 from Latin America and 32 from the OECD, over the period 2001–2012. We find that the outward FDI from Latin America is more likely to be located in geographically proximate countries and in countries with similar culture and language than that from their OECD counterparts. We also show that Latin American outward FDI is less likely to be resource seeking. This presumably reflects the rich natural resource endowments and agricultural potential in major Latin American countries. Further, outward FDI from Latin America is more likely to be concentrated in countries with a similar corruption environment than that from their OECD counterparts. This might indicate a broadly similar nature of corruption across Latin America due to shared cultural, political and economic legacies.     

Patents vs publications and R&D: three sides of the same coin? Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) for OECD and BRICS countries

The paper aims to define the optimal thresholds of publications and Research and Development (R&D) expenditure and to investigate their impacts on patenting in OECD and BRICS countries. To do so, we use a dataset of 25 countries divided into two country sub-samples for the period 1996–2013, employing the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. The results indicate that the threshold of publications after which patenting activity is promoted is 8417 publications for the OECD countries and 20,848 for the BRICS countries, while the share of R&D in % of GDP should not exceed 1.683% for the OECD countries and 0.975% for the BRICS countries.