The accuracy of long-term earnings forecasts in the electric utility industry

This paper examines the accuracy of various methods of forecasting long-term earnings growth for firms in the electric utility industry. In addition to a number of extrapolative techniques, Value Line analyst forecasts are also evaluated. Value Line analyst forecasts for a five-year time horizon are found to be superior to many of the extrapolative models. Among the extrapolative models examined, implied growth and historical book value per share growth rate models performed best. These results provide strong support for using Value Line growth forecasts in cost of capital estimates for electric utilities in the context of utility rate cases. Value Line forecast errors could be explained by changes in dividend payout ratios, the firm's regulatory environment and bond rating changes.     

Foreign Institutional Ownership and the Global Convergence of Financial Reporting Practices

This paper investigates whether foreign institutional investors affect the global convergence of financial reporting practices. Using several measures of reporting convergence, we show that U.S. institutional ownership is positively associated with subsequent changes in emerging market firms’ accounting comparability to their U.S. industry peers. We identify this association using an instrumental variable approach that exploits exogenous variation in U.S. institutional investment generated by the JGTRRA Act of 2003. Further, we provide evidence of a specific mechanism—the switch to a Big Four audit firm—through which U.S. institutional investors affect reporting convergence. Finally, we show that, for emerging market firms, an increase in comparability to U.S. firms is associated with an improvement in the properties of foreign analysts’ forecasts.     

Are analysts' cash flow forecasts useful?

This study provides evidence that the cost of equity capital decreases with the number of analysts who issue both cash flow and earnings forecasts (cash analysts). The evidence also shows that cash analysts reduce information asymmetry and predict long‐term earnings more accurately than analysts who issue only earnings forecasts. Taken together, these findings suggest that cash analysts provide market participants with high‐quality information and, as a result, firms benefit from cash analyst coverage in the form of a reduced cost of equity capital.     

Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals

Focusing on a set of central banks that publish inflation forecasts in real time, this paper aims to establish whether central bank inflation forecasts influence private inflation forecasts. The response is positive in the five countries studied: Sweden, the United Kingdom, Canada, Switzerland, and Japan. Three hypotheses may explain this central bank influence: central bank forecasts are more accurate than private ones, are based on different information sets, and/or convey signals about future policy decisions and policymakers’ preferences and objectives. We provide evidence that the source of these central banks’ influence is not linked to their forecasting performance.     

Technology spillover through trade and TFP convergence: 135 years of evidence for the OECD countries

Using a new dataset on imports of technology and total factor productivity (TFP) over 135 years for the OECD countries, this paper tests whether knowledge has been transmitted internationally through the channel of trade. The empirical estimates show that there is a robust relationship between TFP and imports of knowledge and that 93% of the increase in TFP over the past century has been solely due to imports of knowledge. Furthermore, it is shown that knowledge spillovers have been an important contributing factor behind the TFP convergence among the OECD countries over the period 1870 to 2004.     

Modelling the housing market in OECD countries

Recent episodes of housing bubbles, which occurred in several economies after the burst of the United States housing market, suggest studying the evolution of housing prices from a global perspective. We utilise a theoretical model for the purposes of this contribution, which identifies the main drivers of housing price appreciation, such as, for example, income, residential investment, financial elements, fiscal policy and demographics. In a second stage of our analysis, we test our theoretical hypothesis by means of a sample of 18 OECD countries from 1970 to 2011. We employ the vector error correction econometric technique in terms of our empirical analysis, which permits us to model the long-run equilibrium relationship and the short-run dynamics, which also helps to account for endogeneity and reverse causality problems.     

Is the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Ready for China?

Abstract:

The re-emergence of China as a global economic power has intensified calls for the urgent reform of Western-dominated international organizations. We evaluate efforts by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to adapt to the challenge of China. From the first decade of the 2000s, the OECD has undertaken reforms to boost its significance as a key policy actor in the global economy. Part of this effort involves bringing China closer to the organization. To date, only limited progress has been made. We set out three bold policy reforms the OECD could implement that would deepen the OECD’s relationship with China as well as with other emerging economies.     

Competition among exchanges through simplified disclosure requirements: evidence from the American and Global Depositary Receipts

In this study, we address the ongoing debate as to whether the competition among the world's major exchanges through simplified disclosure requirements is justified. Companies from across the globe have a choice of cross-listing shares as either American or Global Depositary Receipts (ADRs and GDRs, respectively). The former are primarily listed on the US exchanges – NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX – whereas the latter are issued into non-US markets such as the London Stock Exchange (LSE). The GDRs listed on the LSE are subject to simplified disclosure requirements compared to their exchange-listed ADR peers that have to meet more stringent compliance standards. Proponents of the ‘light touch’ approach argue that firms cross-listing as GDRs are not subject to the higher reporting costs faced by ADRs yet still face similar valuation benefits. Those who challenge this approach argue that simplified disclosure requirements set by the LSE will ultimately be recognised by the market as ineffective, diverting traders from investing in GDRs. This study provides evidence that supports the LSE's ‘light touch’ approach and shows that the benefits of information risk reduction for ADRs and GDRs are comparable. The explanation for this finding is that the two avenues through which information asymmetry is expected to be resolved after cross-listing – disclosure and analysts – are substitutive and make equally important contribution to information risk reduction, eventually leading to similar cost of capital decline for ADRs and GDRs.     

Analysts' Forecasts Following Forced CEO Changes

This paper examines analysts' earnings forecasts during the period of uncertainty following a change of chief executive officer (CEO). It distinguishes between forced and non‐forced CEO changes, and examines whether analysts utilize their information advantage to reduce the heightened uncertainty of a forced change of CEO. Examining a sample of Australian companies followed by analysts between 1999 and 2009, we find that forecasting accuracy is lower and earnings forecasts are more optimistic for firms experiencing forced CEO turnover compared to firms not undergoing such a change. However, dispersion is not statistically different. The results suggest that forced CEO turnover events provide a challenge to the forecasting environment for analysts. During CEO changes, investors should be aware that forecasts are less accurate and have an optimistic bias.