Perceptual Density of Guava Juice: The Effect of Image Location and Surface Texture

Guava is known for its rough (astringent) appearance and texture; feature attached to its nutritional benefits but rejected from consumers’ point of view. This study deals with the rough property of guava juice through packaging expecting to influence its perceived density. Two studies were designed by manipulating (a) the location of the image on the bottle and (b) the surface texture of the bottle, controlling for transparency. Results confirm that it is possible to shift the perception of density in guava juice (a) locating the image of the fruit on the top (not the bottom) of the bottle and (b) using a smooth surface texture (not a rough) on an opaque bottle. Concerning practical implications, agribusinesses should enforce the use of sensory marketing strategies to sell the best of fruits and vegetables.     

Evaluating density forecasts from models of stock market returns

Density forecasts have become important in finance and play a key role in modern risk management. Using a flexible density forecast evaluation framework that extends the Berkowitz likelihood ratio test this paper evaluates in- and out-of-sample density forecasts of daily returns on the DAX, ATX and S&P 500 stock market indices from models of financial returns that are currently widely used in the financial industry. The results indicate that GARCH-t models produce good in-sample forecasts. No model considered in this study delivers fully acceptable out-of-sample forecasts. The empirical findings emphasize that proper distributional assumptions combined with an adequate specification of relevant conditional higher moments are necessary to obtain good density forecasts.     

秦人先祖伯益事迹考略

伯益本名大费，为嬴姓之祖，其名号与本部族玄鸟崇拜有关。伯益历事尧、舜、禹三朝，事迹主要在舜、禹两朝。其事迹主要有佐禹平治水土，担任朕虞执掌山林川泽，佐禹平三苗之乱，长于占岁、凿井和造箭，提倡德治法度、主张勤政爱民等五个方面。伯益因功勋卓著而成为大禹选定的继承人，但后被大禹之子夏启所杀。伯益曾获三个封地：“费”为伯益固有居地，“嬴”乃伯益获姓受封之地，“秦”为最后所封之地。嬴秦先祖历史由伯益而展开。     

Assessing the uncertainty in central banks’ inflation outlooks

Recent research has found that macroeconomic survey forecasts of uncertainty exhibit several deficiencies, such as horizon-dependent biases and lower levels of accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation uncertainty forecasts from the Bank of England, the Banco Central do Brasil, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank and the Sveriges Riksbank to assess whether central banks’ uncertainty forecasts might be subject to similar problems. We find that, while most central banks’ uncertainty forecasts also tend to be underconfident at short horizons and overconfident at longer horizons, they are mostly not significantly biased. Moreover, they tend to be at least as precise as unconditional uncertainty forecasts from two different approaches.     

Forecasting cryptocurrencies under model and parameter instability

This paper studies the predictability of cryptocurrency time series. We compare several alternative univariate and multivariate models for point and density forecasting of four of the most capitalized series: Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ripple and Ethereum. We apply a set of crypto-predictors and rely on dynamic model averaging to combine a large set of univariate dynamic linear models and several multivariate vector autoregressive models with different forms of time variation. We find statistically significant improvements in point forecasting when using combinations of univariate models, and in density forecasting when relying on the selection of multivariate models. Both schemes deliver sizable directional predictability.     

The measurement and transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from the U.S. and BRIC countries

We propose a new measure of macroeconomic uncertainty that incorporates a rich information set from U.S. SPF density forecasts. Our measure has two key advantages over traditional measures: (i) it reflects the subjective perceptions of market participants; and (ii) it is an ex ante measure that does not require a knowledge of realized outcomes. We study the features of this measure of macroeconomic uncertainty and explore its impact on real economic activities within the U.S., as well as its spillover effects for BRIC countries.     

An exploration of the environmental and rider characteristics associated with disability paratransit trip delay

Over the past two decades, a number of studies have been published on the efficiency of paratransit service for persons with disabilities. Although speed, delay, and pick-up duration can significantly affect overall efficiency of paratransit service, studies that have focused on these performance measures have been rare. This study examines how these performance measures are associated with local environmental characteristics such as density and the characteristics of the trip makers. It uses a dataset containing detailed information on a large volume of trips made by the registered clients of Access Link, a paratransit service operated by NJ TRANSIT for persons with disabilities. To measure speed and delay, network distances for 1.91 million trips were estimated by the ArcGIS Network Analyst extension. Analysis of variance and regression models were used to examine the associations between the performance measures and a set of variables pertaining to trips, passengers, and characteristics of pick-up and drop-off locations. Models for the entire study area as well as specific Access Link regions show that there is a significant association between local environmental and personal characteristics of passengers and the performance measures. Evidence was found that higher density of population, employment, and intersections at the local level may have a significant adverse effect on service efficiency because of lower speed and higher delay. Planning implications of the findings are discussed.     

当前经济形势与2012年财政政策

本文系统分析了当前的国内外经济形势和2012年的宏观经济政策。结论表明,在国内外经济形势已经发生实质性变化的背景下,2012年的宏观经济政策,即便在名义上仍旧维持"积极加稳健"相搭配的格局,相对于以往,其实际内容也应当且必须做出相当的调整。就积极财政政策布局而言,这种调整主要包括:预算赤字规模,宜在去年的基础上略有增加;减税而非增支,将成为主要载体;结构性减税的操作,应锁定流转税并以增值税为主;增加支出的操作,宜将重点放在改善民生上。     

Managing change in South Africa: developing people and organizations

The interaction of Western and non-Western management practices is a growing issue in transitional and emerging economies through the world, not least within the multicultural context of South Africa. This is characterized in this article as an antithesis between instrumental and humanistic views of people in organizations, which is fundamental to the way change is being managed. In order to better understand how the management of people and change may be related to this antithesis, the results of an exploratory study, involving focus-group methods with thirty managers, and of a survey of some 200 employees in participating organizations are presented. Indicative results suggest that, despite best efforts from organizations which may represent best management and development practice, issues concerning the value attached to people in these organizations are still not being properly addressed. It may be only through understanding and reconciling this antithesis that change concerning the development of people, in South Africa as well as in other emerging economies, may be successfully achieved.     

认真落实人民银行工作会议精神 做好2010年上海总部工作

本文结合人民银行工作会议精神,在认真分析形势的基础上,结合上海总部辖区特点,全面部署了人民银行上海总部2010年的各项工作。