匈牙利金融:最新变化及启示

最近一些年特别是近两年,在国内外多种因素的影响下,匈牙利的金融体系、金融制度也作了较大的调整和改革,取得了有目共睹的成效.本文考察了匈牙利中央银行、货币政策、银行体系和金融监管等方面的改革情况及最新变化,总结了其中的经验教训,指出了对于我国的借鉴和启示意义.     

中国汽车产业组织政策思考

企业自组织理论与产业组织政策理论为汽车产业组织制定奠定了坚实理论基础。反思以往的产业组织政策,进入管制失效、过度保护、支持大企业政策落实不力、汽车消费政策不到位等问题突出。为优化汽车产业组织结构,今后汽车产业组织政策的重点必须以市场化为导向,改革汽车产业的行业管理体制;加快重点国有汽车企业产权改革;营造良好的汽车消费环境;为一些汽车厂商顺利退出创造必要条件。     

中国经济“滞胀风险”的特征研究

利用1991—2010年的数据,对我国的主要经济指标进行分析,做出“中国经济存在滞胀风险”的推论。在互基础上,进一步对我国经济的“滞胀风险”特征做了全面研究。中国经济与社会的发展在“十二五”和“十三五”时期,面临劳动成本上升、人口老龄化、城市化进程加快,经济增长下滑、资源环境恶化等严峻挑战。除了央行已经实施的紧缩货币政策和住房“国十条”等措施外,提出财政政策、收入政策和人力资源政策等政策选择。     

科技金融政策能否提升科技人才集聚水平——基于多期DID经验证据

科技人才是实现我国科技自立自强的核心要素,而科技金融政策是推动我国科技产业发展的重要举措,也是促进地区科技人才集聚的积极探索。以科技金融政策作为一项准自然实验,利用2004—2019年全国281个城市面板数据构建多期双重差分模型,实证分析科技金融政策对城市科技人才集聚水平的影响和作用机制。研究发现：科技金融政策显著提升城市科技人才集聚水平;科技金融政策主要通过政府干预效应、结构升级效应和创新驱动效应提升城市科技人才集聚水平;科技金融政策对科技人才集聚水平的影响随着城市行政级别的提升呈现“边际效应递增”规律。据此,提出对策建议,包括推进科技金融政策有序扩散、强化试点政策的科技人才集聚效应并扩展作用路径、设计科技金融政策梯度发展战略、促进地区间均衡协调发展。     

非对称冲击下的货币政策协调：一个斯塔克尔伯格模型

本文在非对称性冲击的假定下，研究了货币政策协调的斯塔克尔伯格博弈。对模型的斯塔克尔伯格均衡解的分析表明，非对称冲击对货币政策协调的政策效果有着不确定影响。在货币政策协调领域，由于冲击性质的改变，斯塔克尔伯格博弈中领导者的“先发优势”和“先动策略”并不能保证其从货币政策协调中获取确定的政策收益。     

民营企业自主创新的政策与制度制约因素研究

政策与制度因素是影响民营企业自主创新的主要外部因素之一。政策与制度因素对民营企业自主创新的影响不仅表现在自身功能作用上,而且表现在对民营企业自主创新的内部影响因素的作用上。这带来了中国民营企业自主创新的政策与制度制约因素研究的复杂性。这是中国民营企业自主创新制度创新的内在属性。     

商业人身保险与社会保险的协调发展问题探讨

随着我国社会保障体系的不断改革和发展，社会保险已经成为保障劳动者的重要手段。一国社会保障制度的完善程度与其经济发展水平呈正相关关系，因受经济发展水平的制约，我国目前的社会保障制度无论是覆盖率还是保障程度都相对落后，所以我国社会保障制度的现状显然是与社会经济发展的保障需求不对称的。商业人身保险可以充分发挥其机动灵活、富于效率的特点，弥补社会保障的不足。     

Empirical macroeconomic model of the Finnish economy (EMMA)

This paper provides a review of the empirical macroeconomic model (EMMA) built for forecasting purposes at the Finnish Labour Institute for Economic Research. The model is quite small, consisting of 71 endogenous and 70 exogenous variables. The number of behavioural equations is 15. The basis of the model is Keynesian, although the model has some novel properties. They are the treatment of the supply side and prices that follow the routes of the neoclassical synthesis. The parameters of the model are estimated from quarterly data that cover the years 1990–2005. The model also contains a Kalman-filtered variable to control the deep recession in Finland at the beginning of the '90s. This special feature brings the model closer to the new calibrated models.     

Clusters as a driving engine for FDI

This paper develops a model that highlights the importance of clusters for attracting foreign direct investment. It shows from a game theoretical perspective how the combination of setting up a cluster and implementing policy reforms will be a key engine for attracting FDI. Based on agglomeration externalities, the paper shows that the very emergence of clusters can make investment so profitable that investors can even afford to tolerate more policy-induced distortions than otherwise. With perfect information, it shows the existence of multiple equilibria, in which some countries attract FDI while others do not. An extension to the context of imperfect information refines the analysis to a unique equilibrium, in which some investors respond to reforms, while others do not. The paper presents case studies to support the findings.     

Institutional capacity to dynamically innovate: An application to the Portuguese case

The present paper addresses the dynamics of innovation, by extending the analysis beyond a static-economic perspective. It offers a dynamic-institutional mapping of relational capacities to dynamically innovate. Its main goal is to contribute to the above-mentioned research theme by presenting a new methodology able to pinpoint different trends in the relational capacities of institutions when they are innovative. Thereby, major characteristics in the networks of innovation are identified. This investigation uses an extended set of private institutions and public organizations located in Portugal, evaluated by their WebPage contents. To this data set a new combination of multivariate statistical methods is applied to detect group performances, to compare them, and to identify gradients of capacity to dynamically innovate. The results demonstrate that this method can provide extremely useful and tailor-made information for policy evaluation at regional or national levels.