养老基金投资偏好研究综述

养老基金作为重要机构投资者,在投资时主要考虑投资的安全性、谨慎性、流动性、交易成本、公司业绩、投资风格以及公司治理.国外学者对此进行了大量的理论和实证研究,而我国在这一领域还处于起步阶段,有待进一步深入研究.     

上山下乡经历与家庭风险金融资产投资——基于断点回归的证据

本文使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2010年家庭和个人层面数据,考察了户主的上山下乡经历对于家庭风险金融资产投资决策的影响。结果表明,上山下乡经历显著提高了家庭对于股票及广义风险金融资产的投资概率和投资规模。机制分析表明,此经历主要通过提升家庭投资的风险偏好和投资能力来影响家庭的风险金融资产投资。分样本讨论结果表明,上山下乡经历对家庭风险金融投资产生的正向影响在高人力资本、高收入和高社会资本群体中更为显著。     

共享资源治理制度转型中个体认知状态的实证研究

基于对认知行为与制度演化的认识,在偏好分层理论框架下,本文针对“既非家庭私有又非社会公有的被一定范围内私人共享”的共享资源治理制度转型,通过对南京市两次截面数据(2003年878个、2005年865个样本)的统计分析,考察了共享资源治理制度转型中个体认知状态:面临转型期复合场景信号作用,个体外层偏好关系和认知状态发生冲突———趋于支配共享资源决策权利、同时回避与之对应、对等的供给责任。对两次截面数据所做的方差分析显示,存在认知冲突的个体比例未发生显著变化,但各变量特征变化表明,新场景下治理关系的认知状态调整将有利于共享资源治理转型。     

Temporal stability of preferences and willingness to pay for natural areas in choice experiments: A test–retest

The main objective of this paper is to test the temporal stability of stated preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) values from a Choice Experiment (CE) in a test–retest. The same group of participants was asked the same choice tasks in an internet-based CE, conducted twice with a time interval of one year without interviewer interference. We examine choice consistency at individual choice task level and transferability of the underlying indirect utility function and associated WTP values. The results show that choices are consistent in 57 percent of the choice occasions. Comparison of the choice models over time shows that the estimated preference and scale parameters are significantly different, suggesting that choice behaviour changed between the two surveys. Differences between marginal WTP estimates for individual choice attributes are statistically significant only at the 10 percent level. However, we show that this can result in significantly different WTP values for policy scenarios. The instability of estimated mean WTP values for different policy scenarios asks for caution when including WTP values in cost-benefit analysis.     

Choice modelling with search and sort data from an interactive choice experiment

We present a highly structured, online, interactive choice environment containing a large number of alternatives, a search tool that eliminates alternatives that fail specified criteria, and a sort tool. A conceptual framework is developed that links tool usage and preference heterogeneity, and tested in the context of long-haul flight choice. Individuals who sort on price are more price sensitive; individuals who search on certain attributes have a greater marginal (dis)utility for that attribute; and individuals who perform certain non-price searches have a lesser price disutility. The method shows promise as a means for providing a richer picture of preference heterogeneity.     

Grocery shopping and an ageing population: research note

This study focuses on grocery shopping and an ageing population. It hypothesizes that as a population ages so there will be a change in preferences for certain service and product factors associated with grocery shopping. Survey responses were collected from 393 people and the results confirmed the expectations. To analyse the data, a multiplicative determinance model was used. The study concludes with a discussion of the implications of the findings for retailers.     

整体偏好次序下个体偏好次序的变化研究

研究整体偏好次序和个体偏好次序的关系发现,当整体中的个体具有学习能力和理性时.个体为了自身的稳定存在和发展,其偏好次序会自发地向整体偏好次序趋同.     

Accounting for optimism and pessimism in expected utility

We provide a preference foundation for decision under risk resulting in a model where probability weighting is linear as long as the corresponding probabilities are not extreme (i.e., 0 or 1). This way, most of the elegance and mathematical tractability of expected utility is maintained and also much of its normative foundation. Yet, the new model can accommodate the extreme sensitivity towards changes from 0 to almost impossible and from almost certain to 1 that has widely been documented in the experimental literature. The model can be viewed as “expected utility with the best and worst in mind” as suggested by Chateauneuf, Eichberger and Grant (Chateauneuf, Alain, Eichberger, Jürgen, Grant, Simon, 2007. Choice under uncertainty with the best and worst in mind: NEO-Additive capacities. Journal of Economic Theory 137, 538–567) or, following our preference foundation, interpreted as “expected utility with consistent optimism and pessimism”.     

Using stated response choice data to enrich revealed preference discrete choice models

There is growing interest in exploring the view that both revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data have useful information and that their integration will enrich the overall explanatory power of RP choice models. These two types of data have been independently used in the estimation of a wide variety of discrete choice applications in marketing. In order to combine the two data sources, each with independent choice outcomes, allowance must be made for their different scaling properties. The approach uses a full information maximum likelihood estimation procedure of the hierarchical logit form to obtain suitable scaling parameters to make one or more data sets comparable. We illustrate the advantages of the dual data strategy by comparing the results with those obtained from models estimated independently with RP and SP data. Data collected as part of a study of high speed rail is used to estimate a set of illustrative mode choice models.     

区域贸易优惠与最惠国待遇关系的冲突与法律协调——兼论我国之应对措施

区域贸易合作与多边贸易体制虽具有互补性,但彼此不能相互替代;区域贸易优惠与多边最惠国待遇实质上存在冲突,但它作为一项特殊例外存续于世贸组织体制之内。世贸组织规则确立了区域贸易优惠的合法性,从而为区域贸易提供了前所未有的发展机遇。分析区域贸易合作与多边贸易体制的关系、区域贸易优惠与世贸组织最惠国待遇的冲突,以及世贸组织规则对两者间关系的协调,有助于了解区域一体化发展进程,及时采取积极的应对措施。