Randomly evolving tastes and delayed commitment

We consider a decision maker with randomly evolving tastes who faces dynamic decision situations that involve intertemporal tradeoffs, such as those in consumption savings problems. We axiomatize a recursive representation of choice that features uncertain consumption utilities, which evolve according to a subjective Markov process. The parameters of the representation, which are the subjective Markov process governing the evolution of utilities, and the discount factor, are uniquely identified from behavior. We relate the correlation of tastes over time and the desire to delay commitment to future consumption.     

上市公司融资方式选择的偏好顺序分析——来自四川的经验数据

论文以2006-2010年四川省53家上市公司为样本,对其融资方式选择的偏好顺序及影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果与融资优序理论相悖,四川上市公司的融资偏好顺序依次为短期债务融资、股权融资、长期债务融资、内部融资。其中,短期偿债能力、长期偿债能力、资产营运能力、资产盈利能办、市场竞争能力、股利支付能力在不同程度上分别影响上市公司的内部融资度、债务融资度和股权融资度。     

基于偏好分层理论的个体行为选择分析框架

传统经济理论假定个体服从理性判断,遵循选择逻辑,并据此演绎出个体行为选择分析的两种方法.但无论是基于偏好法的效用理论还是反其道而行的显示偏好理论,本质上均无法解释清楚现实中的个体选择何以是丰富多彩的.本文引入偏好分层理论,构建“偏好-行为”分析框架,认为个体偏好可以分为内核层、基本层、表象层和行为层四个层次,该分层的偏好体系决定了个体的知识结构,而特定的知识结构将对个体行为进行损益分析,促使个体做出策略选择并付诸行动.这一理论重新解释微观行动主体在不同场景下的行为选择问题,能够较好地解释现实经济活动中个体的目标驱动行为和规则遵循行为,从而避免新古典经济学效用分析法和显示偏好法在解释个体行为上的局限.     

政府支持对中国风险投资业影响的实证研究

基于1997～2010年中国27个省、市风险投资项目数量的动态面板数据,实证检验了政府支持对中国风险投资业发展的影响,得出了三个主要结论。一是税收激励政策对风险投资业的发展有积极影响,但并不明显,尤其是种子期、初创期受到的激励效果极其微弱。二是引导基金政策抑制了风险投资的发展,事实上也确实如此。三是人均GDP与风险投资业的发展存在显著的正相关关系。因此,在政府支持风险投资业发展的过程中,一定要遵从经济规律,注重发挥其引导作用。     

Assessing consumer willingness to pay for Arctic food products

The food industry increasingly seeks to differentiate food products based on sustainability assurances, the use of traditional or ‘authentic’ production methods, a unique origin, or an association with a distinct cultural identity, often relying on certification to enhance the credibility of a quality claim. The natural conditions of the Arctic circumpolar region, its pristine environment, and the relational tie to Indigenous cultures in many circumpolar Arctic nations, distinguish Arctic foods from other commercially available foods, however, little is known about how consumers respond to foods from the Arctic. This paper examines consumers’ perceptions of and willingness to pay (WTP) for foods originating from the Canadian Arctic, and their receptivity to certification for sustainability, authenticity, and origin in the presence of multiple credence attributes. Data from an online survey of 1342 Canadian consumers show that preferences for Arctic foods are driven by the unique geographic origin and a connection with Indigenous cultures and traditions, as well as a desire to improve social and economic conditions in northern Canada. A discrete choice experiment featuring Arctic char elicits consumers’ WTP for attributes related to origin, certification, wild vs farmed fish, and Indigenous vs non-Indigenous fishers. Random parameters logit and generalized mixed logit models allow for both preference and scale heterogeneity. The analysis informs strategies to promote the Arctic food system, both from a Canadian regional economic development context and across the broader Arctic circumpolar region. Limitations imposed by the current seafood labelling regulatory environment in Canada are noted.     

Please,talk about it! When hotel popularity boosts preferences

Many consumers post on-line reviews, affecting the average evaluation of products and services. Yet, little is known about the importance of the number of reviews for consumer decision making. We conducted an on-line experiment (n = 168) to assess the joint impact of the average evaluation, a measure of quality, and the number of reviews, a measure of popularity, on hotel preference. The results show that consumers’ preference increases with the number of reviews, independently of the average evaluation being high or low. This is not what one would expect from an informational point of view, and review websites fail to take this pattern into account. This novel result is mediated by demographics: young people, and in particular young males, are less affected by popularity, relying more on quality. We suggest the adoption of appropriate ranking mechanisms to fit consumer preferences.     

Optimal assignment of aircrew trainees to simulator and classroom training sessions subject to seniority and preference restrictions

We develop an integer programming model and an exact solution methodology for assigning aircrew members to training sessions which they need to attend in order to fulfill the requirements for renewal of their flight capability. The aim is to find the optimal assignment that minimizes the number of unassigned trainees, while also satisfying a variety of seniority, preference, capacity and language compatibility restrictions. The proposed methodology partitions the aircrew members into distinct groups based on their seniority, making the optimal assignment decisions pertaining to each of these groups sequentially. We present extensive computational results demonstrating that the proposed methodology enables the solution of realistic size problems in moderate computational times.     

Gender and central banking

Female Central Bank chairs represent but a tiny minority. To understand why, this article analyzes socio-economic and socio-political characteristics of the countries where women have chaired Central Banks. Then, it suggests that gender differences in preferences as regards monetary policy goals may have some influence. This hypothesis is based on an empirical analysis showing that female Central Bank chairs focus more than their male counterparts on achieving the price stability goal. This means, then, that women are more resistant than men to political pressures. Finally, it concludes that gender differences in degree of conservatism may be an explanatory factor in female underrepresentation in the Central Bank chairs.     

Cue-recognition effects in the assessment of movie trailers

In the past, the role of recognition in inferential choice has often been investigated within the recognition heuristic (RH) that focuses on the recognition of options. In the present study I investigate instead whether the recognition of a cue influences the assessment of movie trailers. This extension of the RH to cues provides important and more comprehensive insights into recognition in everyday decision-making. One hundred and eighty-eight participants were randomly assigned to one paired comparison and had to decide which of two movie trailers (Epic and The Croods) was about to become more successful. All pairwise comparisons consisted of the same two unknown animated movie trailers. They differed merely from a fade-in of a short unknown or known movie title (e.g., “From the makers of Ice Age”). The central objective of this study was to test whether or not the participants judged movie trailers to be more successful and likeable when associated with the famous movie title and thus decide on the basis of the recognition of this cue. In fact, it was shown that people in this context often revert to this recognition cue. However, the prerequisite for this effect was that the faded-in title should be appropriate for the trailer. Furthermore the preference of animated films was identified as a key factor. Volunteers who liked animated films less, often decided due to the recognized cue. Moreover it is shown that participants increasingly use the recognized cue to decide if they specify a preference and high success for this faded-in movie.     

European consumer preferences for beef with nutrition and health claims: A multi-country investigation using discrete choice experiments

The European Union (EU) nutrition labelling policy aims to facilitate consumers’ food choice, stimulate innovation and facilitate the circulation of foods bearing claims across countries. However, the beef industry has not fully taken advantage of utilizing nutrition and health claims based on the EU nutrition labelling policy to differentiate beef products in the market. This study investigates consumer preferences for nutrition and health claims on lean beef steak. Two choice experiments were conducted among 2400 beef consumers in four EU countries (Belgium, France, the Netherlands, United and United Kingdom). Multinomial logit and error component models were estimated. Our results generally suggest that consumer valuation of nutritional and health claims varies across countries. In Belgium, the Netherlands and France, nutrition and health claims on saturated fat yielded higher utilities than claims on protein and/or iron, while the opposite was found among consumers in the UK. The results imply that marketing opportunities related to nutrition and health claims on beef are promising, but that different nutritional marketing strategies are necessary within different countries.