Households' Preferences and Exchange Rate Overshooting

Abstract

This paper uses a ‘New-Open-Economy Macroeconomic’ model to study the effect of a shock to Households' preferences on exchange rate dynamics. The special features of the model are that Households' preferences exhibit a ‘catching-up with the Joneses’ effect and that international financial markets are imperfectly integrated. Results of numerical simulations of the model demonstrate that these features imply that, in an otherwise standard ‘New-Open-Economy Macroeconomic’ model, a shock to Households' preferences can give rise to an overshooting of the exchange rate.     

新企业所得税制对我国引进外资的影响及效应研究

本文通过对外商投资规模、产业结构、区域结构等方面的数据分析,研究2008年实施的新企业所得税制,相对减少外商投资企业税收优惠背景下,新企业所得税制实施对引进外资的影响及其效应。其结论是新企业所得税法实施后,虽然外商投资于中国境内的企业数量、绝对规模并未减少,且有一定增长趋势,但引资规模的增长幅度下降;投资于第一产业的企业数量和金额在三大产业中所占比重一直极低,投资于第二产业比例逐渐降低,投资于第三产业比例相对提高,对引导外商进入高新技术行业和基础设施建设激励不够明显。进而提出适度延长中西部地区企业所得税税收优惠期并加大优惠力度,对高新技术企业等实施一定期限的所得税免税优惠,适度延长基础设施建设的减免税期限或改变优惠方式等完善企业所得税制度的建议。     

信任的测度

信任在人类社会关系中扮演着重要的角色,被认为是合作秩序的基石、社会维系正常运行的润滑剂。本文讨论了两种信任测度方法的区别及其一致性问题,讨论了信任行为背后的个体偏好——主要包括涉他偏好和背叛规避偏好的分解与测度问题,最后介绍了浙江大学跨学科社会科学研究中心（ICSS）针对中国被试所做的信任测度实验及结论。     

信用突变下商业银行信用风险预警模型及应用

在信用突变环境下,传统的基于模糊评价技术的信用风险预警模型存在较大的功能局限性。对此,文章运用偏好信息熵与物元可拓理论相融合的偏好熵权物元可拓方法,构建了基于偏好熵权物元可拓的商业银行信用风险预警模型,并进行了预警模型的实证分析。文章认为,基于偏好熵权物元可拓的信用风险预警模型的优势在于,通过偏好信息熵与物元可拓理论相融合的偏好熵权物元可拓方法,使得信用突变下信用风险的预警结果具有较好的平滑性与客观性,此外,该模型的综合关联度预警功能,提高了信用风险预警结果的精确度,很好地解决了信用突变下商业银行信用风险的预警问题。     

A multilevel study on preferences for self-service technology versus human staff: Insights from hotels in China

Rapid technological developments bring with them an inevitable, still unresolved debate over high-tech versus high-touch service. Technology adoption usually involves multilevel phenomena (e.g., individual, organization, and industry-wide). Moving beyond previous work, which has focused primarily on individual-level adoption, this research aims to develop a hierarchical framework integrating multiple domains. Based on 59 in-depth interviews with hoteliers and customers, the framework unveils the mechanisms of organizational and individual preference construction for self-service technologies compared with human-delivered services. Findings reveal that the interplay between the external environment, organizational context, internal service encounters, and core customer experience influences customers’ and hoteliers’ preference construction. Results further show that organizations pay more attention to the environment and organizational context, whereas individuals tend to highlight differences between customers more strongly. Theoretical and practical implications are also discussed.     

A purchase decision support model considering consumer personalization about aspirations and risk attitudes

Ranking alternative products to help consumers make better purchase choices is a valuable research topic. Most previous decision support models cannot be well applied to heterogeneous consumers. This paper focuses on establishing a personalized interactive model to assist consumers make better buying decisions with less effort. For the alternative products provided by consumers, we collect online reviews and parameter configurations of alternative products and then obtain the fusing evaluative information. As consumers are dominated by bounded rationality, they only provide partially key attribute weights, based on which, we construct an optimizing model to obtain the optimal attribute weights of customers for products. Then, a satisfaction function is proposed by uniting aspiration levels and risk attitudes of consumers and a compensatory decision rules is established to rank and recommend the brands to consumers. Finally, practicability of this study is illustrated with a real car purchase case. Through the case study, it can be seen that the proposed decision support model generates a personalized list of alternatives based on consumer's own utility function about risk attitudes, aspiration levels, and preferences for product attributes, which further confirms that the proposed model can capture the personalized needs of consumers. Theoretical and managerial implications of this model as well as advantages are further illustrated.     

Heterogeneity in preferences for redistribution and public spending: A cross-country analysis

Political coordination and policy outcomes may be the result not only of the position of the ‘median voter’ in a political scale but also of the heterogeneity of preferences around the median. Depending on the level of government and the type of policy, such heterogeneity may lead to lower public spending and redistribution. We assess this issue empirically by analyzing the relationship between the distribution of preferences for redistribution and the amount of public expenditure at different levels of government and for several types of spending in 23 European countries. Our results suggest a negative and significant correlation between heterogeneity of preferences for redistribution and public spending that is stronger at the local level and for redistributive functions, independent of the median individual's preferences.     

Arrow’s theorem as a corollary

Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem is derived from a general result on social aggregation in ‘property spaces’ (S3 convex structures) obtained in prior work. In the derivation, the specific structure of Arrowian aggregation as an aggregation of weak orders plays a purely combinatorial role.     

财政分权和西部地区的发展

西部地区明显落后于东部地区，形成了比较严重的区域发展不平衡，解决西部地区发展问题，不但需要国家在资金上给予扶持，更为重要的是国家政策的倾斜，其中一项政策就是财政税收政策。财税政策倾斜的重点不仅仅是转移支付，还应该包括给予西部地区以财税政策的制度权，使西部各省能够根据自身情况制定优惠政策，以达到吸收外部资金和民间资金的目的，只有增强西部地区自我发展能力，才能真正实现西部地区的发展。     

非现金支付的发展及其规律性的分析

本文分析了2013年至2017年我国非现金支付发展情况及其规律性,建立了关于非现金支付工具选择偏好的模型。数据分析发现,在这段时间传统的非现金支付业务出现了较大幅度的下降,而新型的电子化支付工具迅速发展,特别是网上支付和移动支付业务规模出现爆发性增长。理论研究表明,非现金支付工具的选择主要决定于安全性、便利性和使用成本,而这三项因素又受到交易规模的影响。交易规模越大,人们对支付工具的安全性要求越高,对便利性要求越低,也可以接受付费和较高的使用成本;交易规模越小,人们对支付工具的便利性要求越高,对安全性要求降低,也不可以接受付费和较高的使用成本;在交易规模一定的情况下,越安全、越便利、使用成本越低的支付工具越能得到使用。本文建议,应将非银行支付机构的账户余额纳入M1范围,加强对非现金支付工具的统计分析,加快开发中央银行主导的新型非现金支付工具。