Revision of conjectures about the opponent’s utilities in signaling games

In this paper we apply the concept of preference conjecture equilibrium introduced in Perea (2005) to signaling games and show its relation to sequential equilibrium. We introduce the concept of minimum revision equilibrium and show how this can be interpreted as a refinement of sequential equilibrium     

中国与“一带一路”沿线国家与地区机电产品贸易强度动态变化及其影响因素研究

“一带一路”倡议的提出和实施为中国与“一带一路”沿线国家与地区间机电贸易合作提供了新机遇。基于“一带一路”沿线60个国家与地区2010—2018年机电产品贸易数据,使用改进的双边显示性贸易偏好指数测度中国同“一带一路”沿线国家与地区机电产品贸易强度的动态变化,并采用扩展引力模型检验其主要影响因素。研究结果表明:中国同“一带一路”沿线国家与地区的机电产品贸易强度日益增加,且出口强度高于进口强度,周边邻国高于其他国家;技术差距、“一带一路”沿线国家与地区的市场需求、外贸开放度、政府规模、地缘优势等因素可以显著促进中国同“一带一路”沿线国家与地区双边机电产品贸易强度。     

审计师行为选择与其独立性偏好关系分析

现行关于审计师行为实证研究中,大都基于审计意见类型推断审计师独立性,没有对审计意见类型为什么能代表审计师独立性进行分析和讨论,本文采用偏好、选择与效用经济学基础理论来进行分析和证明。通过逻辑分析、模型构建和推导发现,对审计意见类型的选择结构能够推断审计师对独立性的偏好关系,这种关系是基于审计师效用最大化做出的。     

资产选择、风险偏好与储蓄存款需求

本文以消费者最优资产选择模型为基础,采用局部均衡分析方法探讨了通货膨胀、股市收益波动、消费者风险偏好对储蓄存款需求的影响。2001年6月以后,通货膨胀方差下降,股市持续下跌,股市收益率下降,收益率方差也有所下降,但货币需求却加速增长。本文根据不同的相对风险回避指数,模拟了利率、通货膨胀、股市收益率、股市收益率方差等因素对2001年6月至2005年9月平均储蓄存款的影响。在适当的相对风险回避指数下,储蓄存款增加的30%左右可以由这些因素解释;如果不考虑GDP等规模变量,股市收益率下降是导致平均货币需求增长的主要因素。     

放弃成本、政府偏好与资本控制:一个审慎的机会主义汇率制度选择模型

本文在Obstfeld(1 996)第二代货币危机模型的基础上 ,建立了一个考虑经济结构、供给冲击以及金融风险的多因素汇率制度选择模型 ,以成本分析为工具解释了资本控制、各类成本和政府偏好对均衡的影响以及对汇率制度选择的影响。研究表明 :(1 )资本控制可以通过多种途径对均衡产生影响 ,在一定条件下可以利用资本控制措施使经济避免多重均衡 ;(2 )放弃成本对汇率制度选择发挥关键作用 ;(3 )较大的政府偏好促使政府选择固定汇率制度 ,在放弃成本不足够大的条件下 ,决策者也可以通过提高政府偏好或者实施资本控制措施来保护本国固定汇率制度 ;(4)对人民币现行汇率制度的放弃成本的估计表明 ,当前人民币汇率制度放弃成本正处于中间水平 ,因此有必要增大政府对固定汇率制度的偏好并且对资本帐户实施适度管理以保持人民币汇率的稳定 ,防范金融风险。至于未来人民币汇率波动幅度的扩大、资本项目自由化的进程以及人民币汇率制度何时回归真正的“管理浮动” ,应主要取决于人民币汇率制度放弃成本的有效降低     

Application of Fuzzy Benchmarking Approach for Strategic Planning of Tourism Destination

The quality of strategic planning and resulting strategies is a key factor for the competitiveness of tourism destinations. Even though this is not a typical field where benchmarking methods are widely used, such an approach can be successfully applied. This article drafts a methodology for strategic benchmarking based on a quality evaluation of development strategies in tourism destinations. These strategies are evaluated by key regional stakeholders. The evaluation of fifteen selected strategies of the Czech, Slovak, and British regions has been made by an on-line application incorporating carefully defined criteria designed to operate with fuzzy data. The best strategies—as an etalon of good practice—are selected by the means of the fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. The Region of Vysocina was selected for realization of the benchmarking gap analysis towards all strategies from the etalon with the aim to identify the opportunities for quality enhancement and corresponding good practices.     

Role of constraints in Chinese calligraphic landscape experience: An extension of a leisure constraints model

The study of constraints in the leisure and tourism context has been a growing research theme during the past four decades. This article focused on participants' constraints that inhibit an experience of Chinese calligraphic landscapes. The purpose of this study was to determine whether three types of constraints existed in the context of a calligraphic landscape experience. A confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the fitness of the collected data for the hierarchical constraints model. This study also extended this hierarchical model to prove that some constraint dimensions do influence tourists' preference, participation and satisfaction. This research concluded that intrapersonal constraints had a negative influence on preference, while neither interpersonal nor structural dimension influenced tourists' participation or satisfaction.     

完善我国高等学校税收政策研究

随着经济体制的转轨,高等学校要满足市场经济条件下的高等教育办学要求,必须进行包括经费来源渠道多元化、后勤社会化、科研产业化等在内的各项改革,这对高校税收政策提出了新的要求,因此,要全面认识我国高校税收政策,克服其弊端,充分发挥税收政策特有的调节作用,合理运用税收优惠等工具,完善其政策内容,支持高校各项改革深入开展,促进高等学校健康和可持续发展.     

Interpreting life-cycle inequality patterns as an efficient allocation: Mission impossible?

The life-cycle patterns of consumption, wage and hours inequality observed in U.S. cross-sectional data are commonly viewed as incompatible with a Pareto efficient allocation. We determine the extent to which these qualitative and quantitative patterns can or cannot be produced by Pareto efficient allocations in models with preference shocks, wage shocks and full information.     

Why more restricted stocks,less stock options?--An explanation based on the preference of regulators of China?

This paper provides an empirical explanation of the more frequent use of restricted stock plans for executives than stock option plans, to reveal the determinants of a restricted stock plan and understand its subsequent effects. We find that firms with higher growth opportunity, smaller size, higher executive ownership, smaller rent-seeking probably, and dividend payment prefer to grant restricted stock plans. Moreover, the preference of regulators drives the tendency of using restricted stock plans, designed to have higher pay-performance sensitivity (delta) and lower pay-risk sensitivity (vega). Under the intensive regulation, the restricted stock plans designed by firms with executive ownerships and large agency debt costs are more sensitive to risk. As a result, granting restricted stock plans rather than stock options helps improve firm performance and the preference of regulators on restricted stock plans can also enhance firm performance and decrease firm risks.