大飞机产业发展的财政政策支持

大飞机产业作为国家战略性产业,对国民经济发展和国家安全至关重要,是推动国家综合国力提升以及国家竞争优势形成的重要力量。大飞机产业的特殊性和战略性使得市场机制在产业发展中难以充分发挥效应。而政府的公共政策支持成为推动产业快速发展和竞争力不断提升的重要基石。政府通过财政补贴、税收政策、政府采购等方式来支持大飞机产业发展,并推动产业发展目标的实现。     

Estimating the public's social preference function between inflation and unemployment using survey data: The survey research center versus Gallup

Economists often use Gallup Poll data on presidential performance to analyze the interaction between politics and the state of the macroeconomy. The household survey undertaken by the Survey Research Center (SRC) of the University of Michigan provides an alternative data base. The SRC asks respondents about the government's performance specifically with respect to inflation and unemployment. We compare whether the Gallup or SRC data are the more useful for estimating the public's social preference function between inflation and unemployment for the Carter, Reagan, Bush and Clinton presidencies. The estimates that use Gallup Poll data are unsatisfactory because for two of the periods the coefficients of inflation and unemployment are not well estimated and for one period there is serial correlation of the residuals. The estimates using the SRC data set are satisfactory and the results are consistent with economic theory. We conclude that a researcher using survey data to estimate the public's reaction to varying rates of inflation and unemployment should prefer the SRC series when it is available. First version received: October 1995/final version received: July 1998     

资产选择、风险偏好与储蓄存款需求

本文以消费者最优资产选择模型为基础,采用局部均衡分析方法探讨了通货膨胀、股市收益波动、消费者风险偏好对储蓄存款需求的影响。2001年6月以后,通货膨胀方差下降,股市持续下跌,股市收益率下降,收益率方差也有所下降,但货币需求却加速增长。本文根据不同的相对风险回避指数,模拟了利率、通货膨胀、股市收益率、股市收益率方差等因素对2001年6月至2005年9月平均储蓄存款的影响。在适当的相对风险回避指数下,储蓄存款增加的30%左右可以由这些因素解释;如果不考虑GDP等规模变量,股市收益率下降是导致平均货币需求增长的主要因素。     

Role of constraints in Chinese calligraphic landscape experience: An extension of a leisure constraints model

The study of constraints in the leisure and tourism context has been a growing research theme during the past four decades. This article focused on participants' constraints that inhibit an experience of Chinese calligraphic landscapes. The purpose of this study was to determine whether three types of constraints existed in the context of a calligraphic landscape experience. A confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the fitness of the collected data for the hierarchical constraints model. This study also extended this hierarchical model to prove that some constraint dimensions do influence tourists' preference, participation and satisfaction. This research concluded that intrapersonal constraints had a negative influence on preference, while neither interpersonal nor structural dimension influenced tourists' participation or satisfaction.     

Application of Fuzzy Benchmarking Approach for Strategic Planning of Tourism Destination

The quality of strategic planning and resulting strategies is a key factor for the competitiveness of tourism destinations. Even though this is not a typical field where benchmarking methods are widely used, such an approach can be successfully applied. This article drafts a methodology for strategic benchmarking based on a quality evaluation of development strategies in tourism destinations. These strategies are evaluated by key regional stakeholders. The evaluation of fifteen selected strategies of the Czech, Slovak, and British regions has been made by an on-line application incorporating carefully defined criteria designed to operate with fuzzy data. The best strategies—as an etalon of good practice—are selected by the means of the fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. The Region of Vysocina was selected for realization of the benchmarking gap analysis towards all strategies from the etalon with the aim to identify the opportunities for quality enhancement and corresponding good practices.     

Representing preferences with nontransitive indifference by a single real-valued function

Let be an interval order on a topological space (X, τ), and let x _˜^* y if and only if [y z x z], and x _˜^** y if and only if [z x z y]. Then _˜^* and _˜^** are complete preorders. In the particular case when is a semiorder, let x _˜⁰ y if and only if x _˜^* y and x _˜^** y. Then _˜⁰ is a complete preorder, too. We present sufficient conditions for the existence of continuous utility functions representing _˜^*, _˜^** and _˜⁰, by using the notion of strong separability of a preference relation, which was introduced by Chateauneuf (Journal of Mathematical Economics, 1987, 16, 139–146). Finally, we discuss the existence of a pair of continuous functions u, υ representing a strongly separable interval order on a measurable topological space (X, τ, μ, ).     

A decomposition of repeat buying

The authors decompose repeat buying for frequently purchased nondurables. The results are very similar for two categories each over a different city and time period. A factor analysis of 18 measures of repeat buying obtains four principal factors that explain 79–85% of the variance: Preference, Inertia, Coupon Proneness and Impulse Buying. A cluster analysis of factors on these dimensions yields four segments, with distinct behavioral characteristics.The authors thank IRI for the data.     

Demographic versus expenditure flexibility in Engel curves

We consider the effects of demographic and expenditure variables on consumer demand in a system of Engel curves using a smooth coefficient semiparametric model where the expenditure effects on the budget shares vary nonparametrically with demographic variables such as the age of head and number of children in the household. Our findings, based on UK micro data, suggest that with a smooth coefficient semiparametric model there is no need for nonlinear logarithmic expenditure effects in the budget shares. Furthermore, we find evidence of a trade-off between demographic and expenditure effects in Engel curves and that a rank-2 system of Engel curves where the logarithmic expenditure effects are allowed to vary with demographic characteristics either nonparametrically or as a third degree polynomial function cannot be rejected against a rank-3 (quadratic logarithmic) model. The implications on household behavior and welfare are also examined. We would like to thank an anonymous referee and Baldev Raj, the editor, for useful comments and suggestions. We would also like to thank the University of Cyprus for financial support, Theofanis Mamuneas for stimulating discussions and the Office of National Statistics for making available the UK Family Expenditure Survey data through the ESRC Data Archive. The last author would also like to acknowledge the financial support from SSHRC of Canada.     

Contingent valuation: A new perspective

After several decades of academic research on the contingent valuation (CV) method a consistent behavioral explanation of ‘hypothetical bias’ is still lacking. Based on evidence from economics, economic psychology and the political sciences, I propose an explanation that is based on two simple working hypotheses about respondent behavior in contingent valuation surveys. The first hypothesis is that survey respondents are unable to form consistent preferences about unfamiliar goods unless the choice context offers reliable, informative cues which can be rationally exploited in simplified heuristics. The second hypothesis is that the probability and impact of strategic responses in dichotomous-choice questions about public goods depends on the extent to which the presented hypothetical costs differ from the actual costs. The literature on hypothetical bias is revisited in the light of these behavioral hypotheses. I find that the hypotheses are generally supported by the empirical data. Moreover, the hypotheses are able to explain several important empirical phenomena that previous research has not been able to explain. In particular, they solve the puzzle that pre-election polls, but not CV surveys, are able to predict actual referendum outcomes, and they explain why income effects on willingness to pay are lower in CV responses than in actual votes. If confirmed by further studies, the hypotheses will have important implications for future research and practice. First, the hypothetical costs presented in the dichotomous-choice question should to be close enough to the actual costs to be credible to all respondents. This can be achieved by specifying the costs as a percentage (rather than absolute) change in taxes. Second, the respondents should be given the option to answer based on information about the positions of large parties and interest groups with known political orientation rather than based on the raw policy information. Theory and evidence suggest that this new survey paradigm largely eliminates the fundamental problems of the conventional stated preference methods.     

Preference uncertainty in contingent valuation

In this paper, the results of empirical studies that applied two widely used methods - numerical certainty scale (NCS) and polychotmous choice (PC) - for estimating preference uncertainty adjusted willingness to pay (WTP) in contingent valuation (CV), are summarized. For this review, a number of conclusions are reached. First, there is a lack of consensus about which method is more appropriate for measuring preference uncertainty. Second, although preference uncertainty information has been found useful in detecting the incidence of hypothetical bias in CV studies, a consensus about a standard certainty threshold (or treatment mechanism) at which hypothetical behaviour converges to real behaviour is yet to emerge. Third, insufficient empirical evidence exists about the causal relationship between preference uncertainty scores and the theoretically expected explanatory variables. Finally, the preference uncertainty adjusted PC and NCS models fail to provide a consistent and more efficient welfare estimate compared to the conventional dichotomous choice certainty model.