国际原油价格波动对中国宏观经济影响的重新考察

本文对国际原油价格波动对中国宏观经济的影响进行了重新考察。研究发现:国际原油价格通过影响采购经理人指数进而影响中国主要宏观经济变量,采购经理人指数的引入,完善了国际原油价格波动对中国宏观经济影响的时序传导机制,从而提高了实证结果的显著性。实证结果显示:国际原油价格上涨对中国消费者价格指数有正向影响,但这一结果并不显著;同时国际原油价格上涨并未改变中国经济增长的总体态势。VEC实证模型的估计结果表明:国际原油价格与中国宏观经济变量之间存在显著的协整关系,而且国际原油价格波动对中国宏观经济的影响存在滞后效应。     

不确定性下的房地产价格波动与货币政策反应:一个文献综述

本文就货币政策如何应对房地产泡沫的研究文献进行述评。国内外学者在该领域的争论集中表现为间接反应观、事后反应观与直接干预观,已有文献对货币政策框架进行修正以应对房价异常波动,并且学者们就金融监管的作用已经达成理论共识。本文的主要结论是:政策环境中的不确定性是影响政策选择的决定性因素,在不确定性条件下,货币政策应该综合运用直接干预与间接反应方式应对房价泡沫;货币政策与金融审慎监管的协调配合有助于实现经济金融稳定的目标;运用房贷政策调控房价泡沫更具政策效力。目前,国内学者的理论研究基础还十分薄弱,缺乏结合中国经济转型背景下特定制度性因素的现实考察,另外,将研究视角拓展为开放经济条件是值得进一步研究的方向。     

通货膨胀与物价目标

针对近年来全国各界对通货膨胀的关切和“物价总水平基本稳定”的提法,本文认为有些认识和思路值得反复理清,包括：如何界定通货膨胀及如何看待通货膨胀;通货膨胀与经济增长如何匹配;中国可能期望的,也是难以避免的通货膨胀率是什么水平。文章提出治理通货膨胀要服从核心任务,应建立现实的通货膨胀观念,并在对保持物价总水平基本稳定的提法进行多视角诠释的基础上,给出了控制物价的几点政策建议。     

我国钢材期货对现货价格波动的影响

我国钢材期货和现货价格波动存在正相关性,即使价格短期出现分歧,但从长期来看也会趋向于一致;钢材期货表现出了一定的价格发现功能;上一期现货价格的波动会引起当期期货价格和现货价格的同方向变动,且影响远大于同期期货价格波动和前一期期货价格和现货价格波动的影响;钢材期货的上市不仅不是钢材现货市场价格大幅波动的原因,而且在一定程度上对现货价格的大幅波动起到了抑制作用.钢材期货的推出,无论是对涉钢企业规避价格风险,还是对钢材市场平稳发展及稳定钢材价格,都具有一定的积极意义.     

An explanation for the price puzzle: Asymmetric information and expectation dynamics

Using theoretical and empirical analyses, this paper shows that the expectation dynamics induced by information asymmetry between the Central Bank (CB) and the public can cause the price puzzle. The signalling and learning dynamics between the CB and a representative private-sector agent under asymmetric information is investigated. Inflation positively reacts to contractionary monetary policy because the change in the interest rate is perceived as a signal of the CB’s private information about higher future inflation and output by the public. The empirical section of the paper validates this theoretical argument using a VAR specification about the US economy. Besides providing an explanation for the price puzzle, the results of this paper has practical implications about transparency and monetary policy. The theoretical and empirical findings indicate that asymmetric information causes significant frictions in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. These frictions induce short-run undesired effects like increase in expected inflation and actual inflation as a response to contractionary monetary policy which is identified as “the price puzzle”.     

Price competition in a differentiated products duopoly under network effects

We examine price competition under product-specific network effects, in a duopoly where the products are differentiated both horizontally and vertically. We emphasize the role of consumers’ expectations formation. When expectations are not influenced by prices, the market may be shared but shares must be equal unless product qualities differ or one firm, possibly even the low-quality one, may capture the entire market. When expectations are influenced by prices, which would be the case when there is commitment, competition becomes more intense and the high-quality firm tends to capture a larger market share. Under strong network effects there is a continuum of equilibria and the higher the prices, the smaller the difference between those prices can be. Requiring continuity of expectations, however, delivers a unique equilibrium where one firm captures the entire market.     

个人投资者交易行为研究——来自台湾股市的证据

本文基于台湾股市数据,主要研究个人投资者的交易行为。参照Kaniel et al.(2008)构建了个人投资者交易不平衡性指标─净交易,以反映投资者股票交易的强度。采用这种交易不平衡性指标来构建投资组合研究个人投资者的交易行为。首先研究个人投资者交易和股票的收益之间的动态关系从而分析投资者的交易策略,然后研究个人投资者净交易的收益预测能力从而分析个人投资者交易的信息含量。本文研究发现:台湾股票市场的个人投资者采用负反馈的交易策略,并且个人投资者在交易中表现出很强的处置效应;个人投资者在交易中的信息含量不足;个人投资者交易中的盈利主要来自两个方面:过度反应和价格冲击。文章最后给出政策建议。     

我国承销商利用分析师报告托市了吗?

学术界对于我国IPO市场是否存在承销商托市行为一直存在争议。本文通过搜集新股上市一年之内的分析师报告数据,系统考察了我国承销商利用分析师报告进行托市的行为特征,以及投资者对于承销商分析师具有托市性质报告的市场反应。结果发现:(1)承销商会利用乐观、但偏颇的分析师报告为市场表现不佳的新股进行托市,但这一现象在新股上市90天后消失;(2)声誉机制在新股解禁期后才能有效约束承销商利用分析师报告托市的利益冲突行为;(3)市场投资者总体上能够识别承销商的托市意图,并对承销商分析师报告的系统偏误进行自我调整。本文的研究不仅为我国承销商是否存在托市行为提供了新的直接性经验证据,而且有助于市场各方洞悉分析师报告背后的利益冲突,同时也为监管部门出台相关的规范政策提供了新的决策参考。     

Biological conservation in dynamic agricultural landscapes: Effectiveness of public policies and trade-offs with agricultural production

Land use change and land management intensification are major drivers of biodiversity loss, especially in agricultural landscapes, that cover a large and increasing share of the world's surface. Incentive-based agri-environmental policies are designed to influence farmers' land-use decisions in order to mitigate environmental degradation. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of agri-environmental schemes for biological conservation in a dynamic agricultural landscape under economic uncertainty. We develop a dynamic ecological economic model of agricultural land-use and spatially explicit population dynamics. We then relate policies (subsidies to grassland, taxation of agricultural intensity) to the ecological outcome (probability of persistence of a species of interest). We also analyze the associated trade-offs between agricultural production (in value) and biological conservation (in probability of persistence) at the landscape scale.     

财政分权、政府竞争与土地价格结构性偏离

财政分权背景下地方政府的财政约束和政府竞争是导致土地价格结构性偏离的根本原因。地方政府存在拉升商业用地和居住用地出让价格的倾向,金融宽松环境和投机行为盛行会使这两种土地出让价格存在正向偏离其理论地价的可能;而地方政府对流动性税基的争夺过程会导致工业用地出让价格低于其理论价格。工业用地价格与商业和居住用地价格正是在政府这两种反作用力量的作用下出现结构性偏离。