Do the Forward Sales of Real Estate Stabilize Spot Prices?

We examine the effect of forward sale (pre-sale) activities on the volatility of spot prices in the real estate market. The abundance of pre-sales data and major changes in regulatory control on the pre-sale market during the 90's in Hong Kong allow us to undertake empirical tests using Hong Kong's real estate data. Our results show that the volatility of spot prices increased significantly after forward sales were severely dampened by regulatory control measures introduced in 1994, but decreased again when the measures were partly relaxed in 1998. The results contribute to the long lasting debate on whether the introduction of a futures market reduces the volatility of spot prices. Previous studies were mainly conducted in markets with low transaction costs, notably financial markets. By utilizing the unique regulatory changes in the pre-sale market of Hong Kong, we are able to conduct an experiment on the conditional volatility of spot prices in a high information-cost environment, thereby shedding light on the important role of forward housing contracts in providing price expectation information for spot trading.     

What can we learn from past price stabilization policies and market reform in Mexico?

This paper reviews experience with policy reforms in the maize sector in Mexico, beginning in the 1980s with particular reference to impacts on price variability. It analyses Mexico’s transition from past price stabilization policies under a state-trading enterprise to market reforms implemented during the 1990s. The nature, extent, and costs to producers and consumers of maize policies is discussed for both the pre-reform and the reform periods. Although wide ranging reforms have been introduced, impacts on efficiency and fiscal outlays have been less than expected.     

2006年石油价格展望

本文对影响2006年石油价格的因素做了系统分析。认为2006年形成油价风险的主要动因已从需求的波动转向供给的波动;2006年油价将由于供求的脆弱平衡维持高位运行的格局,并且,由于供给链中潜在的危机,油价波动性将会非常大;但在全球经济增速下降、石油需求增长放缓、石油生产国家和公司仍然在努力满足市场需求、炼油瓶颈有望缓和的大背景下,油价在2006年按2005年可比价格计不会大幅上升,不会对全球经济产生重大负面影响。     

Informed and uninformed trading on the Australian dollar

Using a high-frequency data set of the spot Australian/US dollar, this study examines the distribution of quotes, spreads, and returns across the trading day. By identifying the direction of trade and the subsequent quote returns from contributing banks, the segmented nature of the market into market-makers and informed and uninformed traders is investigated. The results suggest that the economic gain possible from private information is maximised over 2 to 5 quotes and is rapidly eroded by 20 quotes (about 2 min later during busy trading times) as other new information enters the market. Also, the analysis is revealing of discontinuities in trading and the volatility of pricing across the trading day.     

金融投机、实需与国际大宗商品价格——信息摩擦视角下的大宗商品价格影响机制研究

本文实证考察了2005-2015年金融投机和实需对国际大宗商品现货价格的影响及其作用机理。首先对具有信息噪音属性的金融投机进行了明确识别。其次,从多个维度出发区分市场信息摩擦状态,定量分析不同信息摩擦环境中金融投机和实需的影响差异。研究发现:大宗商品价格在长期中由实需因素主导,短期中由金融投机主导;短期中,相对于低信息摩擦环境,在市场波动性较高、金融压力上升以及投资者情绪高涨的高信息摩擦环境中,以金融投机为主的信息噪音对大宗商品价格的影响更强。进一步分析证实,相比于低信息摩擦环境,高信息摩擦环境中金融交易者的市场份额反而降低。据此,本文提出稳定大宗商品市场的关键在于提高市场透明度,减少信息摩擦,从市场质量出发降低信息噪音的影响。     

Sustainability assurance provider participation in standard setting

This paper examines the participation of accounting firms in the development of sustainability standards by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB). This study shows that the Big Four accounting firms have an active role in both the submission of comment letters on sustainability to the SEC and participation in the industry working groups (IWG) for the SASB. The SASB participation reveals that individuals located within the US and at international affiliates are participating at earlier career stages. In addition, this paper leverages LinkedIn data, identifying the career path of the individuals subsequent to their participation with the IWG, to determine how large accounting firms are retaining the skills and knowledge necessary for this field. Since the Big Four firms are market leaders in sustainability assurance, the finding that Big Four firms can retain individuals with financial assurance backgrounds differently than individuals with other backgrounds speaks to the unique skill set that financial assurance develops. This suggests that the career opportunities for interested financial assurance individuals within the sustainability sphere remain robust within the Big Four environment.     

《经济应用数学》课程分层次教学调查与思考

随着近年高校招生规模的扩大,学生数学基础差和数学水平参差不齐的状况越来越明显。通过对高职高专学生进行分层次教学问卷调查,试用分层次教学调动学生学习数学的积极性,满足不同层次学生的学习需求,从而使他们顺利达到教学目标,提高学生的数学素质及能力。     

房地产价格与通货膨胀、产出的关系——理论分析与基于中国数据的实证检验

本文运用一个简单的数理模型与四象限模型分析了房地产价格影响通货膨胀与产出的机制,结论是:房地产价格通过影响总需求对物价水平产生压力,其中,房价对储蓄的边际影响十分重要。在此基础上,综合运用相关性分析、协整检验、脉冲响应函数与方差分解等方法实证检验我国房地产价格与通货膨胀、产出的关系,其结论是:短期内,房地产价格对通货膨胀与产出的影响十分有限,长期则对通货膨胀与产出产生重要的影响,并且,在房价与通货膨胀、产出之间存在正反馈作用机制。这意味着在一个平稳的宏观经济环境中,这种正反馈机制可能会引发经济过热和房价泡沫。     

价格信息发布、消费者偏好差异与价格离中现象

本文运用博弈论方法研究互联网市场信息服务商的收费策略。互联网市场信息服务商的收入,来源于向厂商收取的信息发布费用。和向消费者收取的信息订阅费用。本文解释了,为什么目前大多数提供价格信息的网站只向厂商收取信息发布费用,而对消费者提供完全免费的服务。本文所建立的模型显示,如果互联网市场的规模足够小,消费者的信息订阅策略对信息服务商的收费足够敏感,则完全免费策略是信息服务商的最优策略。     

涨跌停机制的绩效:上海股市的经验分析

一直以来,理论界和实务界对证券市场实施涨跌停机制的效果存在争议.本文以改进了的Kim和Rhee(1997)的研究方法为基础,结合上海股市的个股价格资料,从波动率溢出假设、延迟价格发现假设和交易干涉假设三个方面对上海股市涨跌停机制的绩效进行实证考察.研究结果表明,中国股市的涨跌停机制是缺乏效率的.文章的最后提出了放宽价格限制幅度和采取不对称的涨跌停机制的政策建议.