Forecasting the Value-at-Risk of REITs using realized volatility jump models

This paper examines jump risk in the time series of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Using high-frequency index-level and firm-level data, the econometric model in this paper integrates jumps into the volatility forecast by estimating jump augmented Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) models of realized volatility. To assess the information value of these specifications, their forecasting accuracies for generating one-step ahead daily Value-at-Risk are also compared with other VaR specifications, including those generated from historical returns, bootstrap technique, and severity loss distribution.     

REITs：房地产融资多元化的重要渠道

2003年6月央行出台121号文件,2004年4月国务院下发提高房地产开发固定资产投资项目资本金比例通知,2004年9月央行出台212号文件,大幅提高了房地产开发融资门槛,融资多元化成为房地产业面对的重要问题。RE-ITs就是一种全新的融资渠道。     

我国设立REITs风险分析

本文通过阐述REITs的概念、种类和特征,对我国设立REITs的风险,从投资者的投资风险和REITs管理者的运营风险两个方面进行分析,以便我国引入REITs后能够充分地进行风险控制,保证其健康发展。     

房地产投资信托基金法律框架的国际比较与启示

以最小的制度代价建立有利于房地产投资信托基金(REITs)持续健康发展的规则体系,是我国开展REITs试点面临的关键问题.本文以美同、澳大利亚、日本、新加坡和中国香港为例,比较分析主要经济体的REITs法律框架,并结合我国REITs相关法律法规现状,提出构建完善我国REITs法律框架的建议.     

Applying VaR to REITs: A comparison of alternative methods

This study employs five methods to calculate the VaR of twelve REITs portfolios and evaluates the accuracy of these methods. Firstly, we find that the VaR varies among individual portfolios. The Hotel REITs has consistently the largest VaR. The low-leveraging portfolio tends to have the largest VaR measured by the parametric methods, while the high leveraging portfolio has the largest VaR calculated by the non-parametric methods. Secondly, each method performs differently at different confidence levels, and no method dominates the others. At the 95% confidence level, the EWMA method performs relatively well. The EQWMA and the two non-parametric methods perform equivalently and slightly overestimate VaRs. The EQWMA_T method ranks the bottom and significantly overestimates VaRs for all portfolios. At the 99% confidence level, the EQWMA method performs the best. The EQWMA_T and the two non-parametric methods perform equivalently and may overestimate VaR for all portfolios. The EWMA method turns out to be the worst and tends to underestimate the VaR. These findings may provide more insights for institutional real estate investors.     

The Long-Horizon Performance of REIT Mergers

We study long-horizon shareholder returns in a comprehensive sample of Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) mergers, to test whether or not the anomaly of post-merger underperformance observed in conventional firms applies to the case of REITs. Constructing synthetic benchmark portfolios controlling for firm size and for book-to-market value ratio, we find that 60-month buy-and-hold abnormal returns for REIT acquirers are significantly negative at approximately −10%, supporting the position that REIT merger acquirers underperform non-merging REITs in the long run. We find no evidence to challenge previous studies reporting positive announcement period returns for acquirers when the target is privately held, but we do find evidence that these positive returns do not persist. The long term performance of acquiring REITs is approximately the same whether the target is public or private.

我国房地产投资信托法律问题研究

近年来,房地产投资信托以其灵活性和门槛低的特点正好契合了我国的房地产企业高速发展要求并逐步在我国发展壮大。但我国房地产信托的发展形式尚在探索之中,加之信托市场不完善,信托法规尚待健全,投资者在投资时将不可避免的面临较大风险。本文拟从法律角度就房地产投资信托做相关的概述、并提出我国目前存在的问题及对其进行的法律思考,以期待我国房地产市场尽快完善发展。     

基础设施公募REITs与地方政府债务风险化解

2022年新国发2号文件明确提出,将防范和化解地方政府债务风险作为保障国家经济安全的重要工作。本文基于贵州省地方政府债务风险现状及基础设施公募REITs在中国的发展情况,探究基础设施公募REITs作为权益型融资渠道,通过降低政府杠杆率在传统融资渠道模式困境中实现金融创新,并向市场注入经济发展动能,从而防范和化解地方政府债务风险。针对公募REITs推行过程中的项目筛选难度大、专业水平人才缺乏、治理机制不健全、政策仍处于探索阶段等问题,提出做好优质项目的储备和孵化、公募REITs智库组建等应对措施。本文为化解地方政府债务风险提供了有益参考,对稳步推进基础设施公募REITs后续发展具有一定的借鉴意义。     

The Performance of REIT-owned Properties and the Impact of REIT Market Power

Using a unique, detailed panel dataset of lodging properties, this paper tests whether properties owned by real estate investment trusts (REITs) perform differently than other properties and whether the concentration of real estate ownership brought about by REITs has increased market power. Our results demonstrate that REIT-owned properties, which are primarily mid-scale and high-end hotels, did not perform significantly better, on average, than other mid-scale or high-end hotels in the same geographic area. However, because of the superior overall performance of mid-scale and high-end hotels, REIT properties as a whole did perform better, on average, than non-REIT properties. From these results we conclude that the superior performance of REIT properties was due to the fact that REITs tended to acquire properties in market segments that performed well; REIT ownership in itself does not appear to have increased performance. Our results also suggest that the superior performance of the market segments in which REITs have a significant presence is not attributable to the market power of the REITs.     

我国房地产信托投资基金(REITs)发展现状、困境及建议浅析

房地产投资基金(REITs)已经成为发达国家和地区房地产市场中非常重要的融资渠道。近年来我国在REITs的发行上做了许多尝试和研究,但真正意义的REITs没有出现。本文分析了国内REITs的最新实践,通过比较分析REITs的基本特征,从基础资产的质量、制度环境、专业人才建设等方面剖析了国内发行REITs存在的现实困境,提出了加快法律法规建设、提高基础资产质量以及专业人才培养方面的政策建议。