Asset price targeting in an open economy with cognitive limitations: The best for macroeconomic and financial stability?

The choices of policy targets and the formation of agent expectations have been critical issues addressed by monetary policy management since the financial crisis of 2008. This paper evaluates macroeconomic stability in a new Keynesian open economy in which agents experience both cognitive limitations and asset market volatility. The (im)perfect credibility of various monetary policies (e.g., a Taylor-type rule with- or without asset price targeting, strict domestic inflation targeting, strict CPI inflation targeting, and exchange rate peg) may lead agents to react according to their expectation rules, and thus create various degrees of booms and busts in output and inflation. Simulations confirm that a Taylor-type CPI inflation targeting including an asset price target is the best choice. In contrast, the business cycles induced by Keynesian “animal spirits” are enhanced by strict inflation targeting. Furthermore, a credible exchange rate pegging system with an international reserve pooling arrangement can improve social welfare and stability in an open economy, even though its absolute value of the loss function is slightly lower than a Taylor-type CPI inflation targeting including an asset price target.     

GDP growth and currency valuation: The case of the dollar

One popular view on the strength of the US dollar around the turn of the century is that the higher growth in the US compared to Europe had stimulated foreigners to buy American assets, thereby driving up the exchange rate. In this paper a modified portfolio balance model is presented, in which it is shown that the impact of output growth on the exchange rate depends crucially on the origin of this growth. An improvement of the output gap is shown to actually depress the exchange rate whereas an increase in potential output growth leads to an appreciation, especially if this improvement is likely to be persistent. In an empirical example, it is shown that the equilibrium real dollar rate is indeed positively affected by high trend growth in the US, whereas it is negatively affected by a positive output gap. The model outperforms the random walk in forecasting future real dollar rates one to eight quarters ahead.     

基于方差分解法的中国股市泡沫检验问题研究

基于理性投机泡沫理论,采用方差分解法对2005年5月到2012年9月上证综指是否存在泡沫以及泡沫的严重程度进行实证检验,并将检验结果同动态自回归法得到的结果进行比较。研究发现该方法能更有效地检测出我国股市中存在的严重投机性泡沫。     

106例药品不良反应报告分析

目的：探讨患者发生药品不良反应（ADR）的特点,加强ADR监测,促进临床合理用药。方法收集惠州市中医医院2014年通过广东省药品不良反应管理平台报告ADR监测网的106例ADR报告,对患者的年龄、性别、给药途径、药物联用情况、ADR累及器官或系统及临床表现等方面进行分类统计和分析。结果106例ADR报告中,患者年龄最小3岁,最大85岁,其中以大于50岁的患者居多,共57例,占53.7%;发生ADR患者的主要给药途径为静脉滴注;涉及药品共9类,以使用抗感染药品出现ADR最多见,中药制剂次之;两药联用最多见,占51.9%;主要以皮肤及其附件损伤为主,共27例,占25.5%;消化系统、神经系统次之;治疗后56例患者治愈,50例好转。结论由于ADR的发生与多种因素相关,存在一定的不可预见性,因此临床需提高对ADR的重视程度,加强对ADR的监测与报告,减少ADR的发生,保障临床用药安全。     

Asset price volatility and trading volume with rational beliefs

Summary. This paper develops a model of speculative trading in a large economy with a continuum of investors. In our model the investors are assumed to have diverse beliefs which are rational in the sense of being compatible with observed data. We demonstrate the existence of price amplification effects and show that the equilibrium prices can be higher or lower than the rational expectation equilibrium price. It is also shown that trading volume is positively related to the directions of price changes. Moreover, we study how asset price volatility and trading volume are influenced by belief structures, short selling constraints and the amount of fund available for investment.Received: 23 January 2003, Revised: 30 April 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D84, G12.We are grateful to Professors Mordecai Kurz, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Judd, Carsten Nielsen, Maurizio Motolese, Mark Garmaise, Jean-Michel Grandmont, Peter Hammond, Karl Shell, Jan Werner and participants of the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET) Conference and Stanford Institute of Theoretical Economics (SITE) Conference for many helpful suggestions. Correspondence to: H.-M. Wu     

Community health service centers in China, not always trusted by the populations they serve?

Based on the idea that healthcare needs to be managed by individuals and that basic health services should be provided by the community, this paper examines the factors that impact urban outpatients' preferences for particular community health service centers (CHSCs) and hospitals. Rational consumption of healthcare is influenced by a patient's beliefs, beyond simple demographics and social structure. Ignorance of basic health issues leads to non-rational patient behavior, which also explains the confusion in Chinese health reform regarding people's mistrust of CHSCs. Health education in the form of self-managed care may increase personal health knowledge and encourage individuals to make use of the basic health services that are supplied by CHSCs.     

基于理性预期条件下的宏观经济政策有效性分析

理性预期理论是最近二十几年在西方发展起来的一个新兴学派,它的发展在一定程度上改变了现代西方经济学的分析方法和理论结构。本文从理性预期学派的起源和理论基础出发,以理性预期的视角探讨现代宏观经济体系中微观层面上个体行为与宏观层面上经济行为之间的内在联系,认为政府在微观经济主体具备良好理性预期能力的前提下,宏观经济政策对经济的调节是有限的,政府必须充分尊重并合理引导微观经济主体的预期,才能不断提高宏观经济政策的效用。     

科学提升中国金融业“走出去”品质——兼论推进人民币理性国际化的路径选择

文章认为中国走出去分为三个层次,一是产品走出去,二是企业走出去,三是金融走出去。金融走出去最关键的是人民币走出去,即实现人民币的全球化。在后危机时代,金融是实现战略转型的重要手段,而且是提升我国走出去品质的战略抓手。我们要真正提升金融走出去品质,一要优化金融走出去的载体结构,做大做强金融机构;二要优化金融走出去的产品结构,提升金融知识产权状态;三要提高人民币的社会主义运用水平,科学推进人民币理性国际化。