美国经济会因次贷风波而衰退吗

次贷风波后弱于预期水平的美国最新经济数据加剧了市场担忧,美国经济"衰退论"大量涌现,这种极端化观点最大的弊病在于混淆了短期波动和长期趋势。结合美国经济结构特征、演化历史和最新变化,本文认为美国经济在长期内进入衰退的可能性较小,最根本的原因在于美国消费并没有出现长期萎靡的趋势,而具有易变性的投资放缓很可能是造成短期GDP增长率下降的重要因素,影响力相对较小且本身波动较大的净出口则不可能对美国长期经济增长造成较大打击。     

Inconsequential arbitrage

We introduce the concept of inconsequential arbitrage and, in the context of a model allowing short-sales and half-lines in indifference surfaces, prove that inconsequential arbitrage is sufficient for existence of equilibrium. Moreover, with a slightly stronger condition of nonsatiation than that required for existence of equilibrium and with a mild uniformity condition on arbitrage opportunities, we show that inconsequential arbitrage, the existence of a Pareto optimal allocation, and compactness of the set of utility possibilities are equivalent. Thus, when all equilibria are Pareto optimal — for example, when local nonsatiation holds — inconsequential arbitrage is necessary and sufficient for existence of an equilibrium. By further strengthening our nonsatiation condition, we obtain a second welfare theorem for exchange economies allowing short sales.Finally, we compare inconsequential arbitrage to the conditions limiting arbitrage of Hart [Hart, O.D., 1974. J. Econ. Theory 9, 293–311], Werner [Werner, J., 1987. Econometrica 55, abs1403–1418], Dana et al. [Dana, R.A., Le Van, C., Magnien, F., 1999. J. Econ. Theory 87, 169–193] and Allouch [Allouch, N., 1999. Equilibrium and no market arbitrage. CERMSEM, Universite de Paris I]. For example, we show that the condition of Hart (translated to a general equilibrium setting) and the condition of werner are equivalent. We then show that the Hart/Werner conditions imply inconsequential arbitrage. To highlight the extent to which we extend Hart and Werner, we construct an example of an exchange economy in which inconsequential arbitrage holds (and is necessary and sufficient for existence), while the Hart/Werner conditions do not hold.     

The role of fiscal policy in Japan: a quantitative study

This paper analyzes the role of fiscal policy in the recent slowdown in Japan. A dynamic general equilibrium model is developed in which fiscal policy can have both expansionary effects (through increasing returns) and contractionary effects (through the increase of public debt and tax burden). A version of the model is calibrated to the Japanese economy and is used to measure the importance of both these effects. We find that, under a wide range of parameters, net expansionary effects are quantitatively small, thus suggesting a limited role for fiscal stabilization     

The causes of Japan's ‘lost decade’: The role of household consumption

In this paper, I analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and find that the stagnation of investment, especially private fixed investment, was the primary culprit. I then investigate the causes of the stagnation of household consumption during the 1990s and find that the stagnation of household disposable income, the decline in household wealth, and increased uncertainty about the future are among the contributing factors. Finally, I consider whether demand side factors or supply side factors were more important as causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and conclude that the former (especially misguided government policies) were probably more important.     

The role of innovation in driving the economy: Lessons from the global financial crisis

The global financial crisis hit nearly every country in the world, devastating their economies, decimating the financial resources of their companies and citizens, and nearly collapsing the banking systems in their countries. While risky financial instruments and bad home lending practices receive much of the blame for this downturn, too few innovations introduced in the years leading up to the crisis also contribute to this collapse or, at a minimum, deepening the resulting recession. This paper draws on theoretical literature and contemporary media accounts, building the argument for a significant impact of innovations on the economy and its potential role in pulling the US economy out of the financial crisis. The paper develops propositions based on this review and discusses implications for staving off future economic difficulties.     

Contractual Discrimination in Franchise Relationships

Franchisors often modify the contract terms offered to prospective (new) franchisees – to incentivize growth in the number of franchisees, to access capital, or to improve their financial performance. We argue that changes in contract terms offered to new franchisees (contractual discrimination across franchisees) can alter existing franchisees’ perceived equity in their relationship with the franchisor, and affect their freeriding. Specifically, we hypothesize, and show, that positive (negative) discrimination towards new franchisees reduces (maintains) existing franchisees’ perceived equity in their relationship with the franchisor, motivating existing franchisees to increase (eschew) freeriding – with impact on franchisors’ performance. To do so, we first take advantage of an exogenous event (the great recession of 2007-09) to study how 120 restaurant franchisors changed their contract terms to new franchisees and how that affected their post-recession net income (Study 1). We show that changes in contracts for new franchisees impact franchisors’ post-crisis performance, as a function of the number of existing franchisees. Second, with two experiments (Studies 2 and 3) with entrepreneurs and franchisees, we document that the observed changes in performance occur because contractual discrimination affects existing franchisees’ perceived equity and their intentions to free-ride. Thus, we contribute to the literature on equity in franchising relationships, on contract evolution in franchising, and its impact on financial performance.     

American business cycles 1889–1913: An accounting approach

This paper quantitatively investigates the Depression of the 1890s and the 1907 recession in the United States. Business Cycle Accounting decomposes economic fluctuations into their contributing factors. The results suggest that both the 1890s and the 1907 recessions were primarily caused by factors that affect the efficiency wedge, i.e. slumps in the economy’s factor productivity. Distortions to the labor wedge played a less important role. Models with financial market frictions that translate into the efficiency wedge are the most promising candidates for explaining the recessionary episodes.     

Nowcasting in real time using popularity priors

We construct a “Google Recession Index” (GRI) using Google Trends data on internet search popularity, which tracks the public’s attention to recession-related keywords in real time. We then compare nowcasts made with and without this index using both a standard dynamic factor model and a Bayesian approach with alternative prior setups. Our results indicate that using the Bayesian model with GRI-based “popularity priors,” we could identify the 2008Q3 turning point in real time, without sacrificing the accuracy of the nowcasts over the rest of the sample periods.     

Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model: An application to the German business cycle

We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany, preselected from a broader set using the elastic net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show that a two-state model is not sensitive enough to detect relatively mild recessions reliably when the Great Recession of 2008/2009 is included in the sample. Adding a third state helps to distinguish normal and severe recessions clearly, so that the model identifies all business cycle turning points in our sample reliably. In a real-time exercise, the model detects recessions in a timely manner. Combining the estimated factor and the recession probabilities with a simple GDP forecasting model yields an accurate nowcast for the steepest decline in GDP in 2009Q1, and a correct prediction of the timing of the Great Recession and its recovery one quarter in advance.     

The evolution of monetary policy effectiveness under macroeconomic instability

This paper studies the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the US following the Great Recession. The implementation of a modified Dynamic Factor Model enables the identification of two different structural scenarios based on the information contained in a large dataset of 110 variables. Impulse Response Functions to an increase of official interest rate for this large dataset are estimated for each structural context. Three techniques are combined to deal with the dimensionality problems which emerge from an estimation procedure of this magnitude: (i) factor decomposition, (ii) an identification strategy independent of the number of variables included in the dataset and (iii) a blockwise optimization algorithm for the correct selection of the Bayesian priors. Results show the presence of a structural break in 2008 and the higher responsiveness of the economy to monetary policy after that date.