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71.
This paper shows that financing constraints of small firms were one of the drivers of unemployment dynamics during the 2007–2009 recession in the United States. Specifically, workers in small firms were more likely to become unemployed during the 2007–2009 recession than comparable workers in large firms, but only if they were employed in industries with high financing needs. We find very similar results for the 1990–1991 recession, but not for the 2001 recession, where only the former was associated with a reduction in loan supply. The findings support the credit constraints hypothesis and underscore the role of bank lending in explaining labor market activity. 相似文献
72.
In the wake of the Great Recession, almost all countries suffered a severe and synchronized trade collapse unlike any seen since the Great Depression. To the extent that economic integration fosters trade among countries, this paper examines the role that international integration played in moderating the negative shock caused by the Great Recession on trade. The methodology adopted is a modified gravity model in which we control for the Great Recession, different forms of integration, as well as the interaction between integration and the recession. Measuring integration in three different ways, the findings show that countries that were more integrated fared better in trade – the extent of trade collapse was milder – than less integrated countries. Specifically, Regional Trade Agreement, as a form of trade integration, had a positive and robust effect on trade during the Great Recession. This positive effect is also robust across regions and countries around the world. In a nutshell, countries that are into some form of trade agreements are better-positioned to absorb negative demand-side shocks caused by economic recessions than similar countries without such agreements. 相似文献
73.
Joseph Han 《Global Economic Review》2018,47(4):434-463
This study investigates the effects of labour market conditions at the time of graduation, proxied by the local unemployment rate, on long-term family and labour market outcomes in Korea. The examination yields four main findings. Labour market entry conditions have strong and persistent effects among high school graduates. Male college graduates have a persistently lower probability of working at large firms if the demand for local labour shrinks at the time of graduation. Self-employment can be persistently hampered by adverse economic conditions at graduation. Family formation and childbearing are temporarily affected by labour market entry conditions, especially for less educated women. The first three findings highlight the notable segmentation of the Korean labour market into protected jobs in large firms – mostly part of business groups (chaebols) – and unprotected jobs. 相似文献
74.
This paper examines the relationship between the firm's governance structure and its value during different economic conditions. We show that both relative industry turnover and CEO entrenchment increase during economic downturns. We also find that relative industry turnover and managerial entrenchment have opposite impacts on the value of the firm throughout the recessionary period. While industry turnover leads to an appreciation in firm value, managerial entrenchment reduces shareholders’ wealth. The negative impact of managerial entrenchment on firm value, however, outweighs the positive impact of industry turnover. Accordingly, we propose that a recession provides managers with a good opportunity to camouflage their behavior and extract more private benefits and, thus, blame the poor performance on bad economic conditions. 相似文献
75.
Joel R. Evans Anil Mathur 《International Review of Retail, Distribution & Consumer Research》2013,23(1):30-58
Today, more than ever, retailers need to analyze the key solvency (liquidity) and efficiency financial ratio measures that affect how well their firms perform and to engage in long-term activities that will lead to improved results. Clearly, the recent ‘Great Recession’ has had a significant negative impact on retailers worldwide. Yet, an important question remains largely answered: Was the retail industry a major contributor to the events leading up to the economic crisis or was it an affected bystander shaken by the recession? This paper addresses the question for US retailing, the largest retail economy in the world. Although there has been considerable research on some aspects of the performance of the industry and individual firms, no prior studies exist that comprehensively examine the financial ratio performance of the totality of US retailing over time. Here, the financial performance of US retailers in 54 different sectors is analyzed for the 1982–2007 period using a model and data derived from Dun & Bradstreet's annual Industry Norms & Key Business Ratios. Results show that for many financial measures – such as the current ratio, liabilities to net worth, return on sales (profit margin), return on assets, financial leverage, and return on net worth – US retailing's financial performance has been in a steady decline for decades. The model introduced here is largely validated. 相似文献
76.
Spyridon D. Vrontos John Galakis Ioannis D. Vrontos 《International Journal of Forecasting》2021,37(2):647-671
The most representative machine learning techniques are implemented for modeling and forecasting U.S. economic activity and recessions in particular. An elaborate, comprehensive, and comparative framework is employed in order to estimate U.S. recession probabilities. The empirical analysis explores the predictive content of numerous well-followed macroeconomic and financial indicators, but also introduces a set of less-studied predictors. The predictive ability of the underlying models is evaluated using a plethora of statistical evaluation metrics. The results strongly support the application of machine learning over more standard econometric techniques in the area of recession prediction. Specifically, the analysis indicates that penalized Logit regression models, k-nearest neighbors, and Bayesian generalized linear models largely outperform ‘original’ Logit/Probit models in the prediction of U.S. recessions, as they achieve higher predictive accuracy across long-, medium-, and short-term forecast horizons. 相似文献
77.
在经济衰退期间减少广告支出,将导致在衰退期间及以后的商品销量下降,且不能带来实质性的利润的增加。在经济衰退期间增加广告支出对企业的销量、市场份额、利润及品牌资产都有积极的作用,且其影响远大于经济扩张期和稳定期。增减广告支出的影响时效往往超出衰退期本身。 相似文献
78.
How durable is sustainable enterprise? Ecological sustainability meets the reality of tough economic times 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Today's business leaders are pressed to achieve ecological (eco) sustainable enterprise, but must do so with fewer resources. Given a protracted global recession, our concern is that the motivation for eco-sustainability may not be as strong as hoped for, nor as swift or durable as expected. To create a more explicit discourse on eco-sustainability activities during a recession, we set forth a framework to help business leaders examine their strategic perspective based on their organization's identity. We describe how this may influence how leaders broach change within their organizations, taking a surface or deep approach to achieve eco-sustainability. The intent is to highlight the importance of honestly assessing the firm's purpose and to work toward a more relational orientation in the new economy. To establish eco-sustainability during this recessionary period, we believe a middle path is needed, adopting a blended perspective. To this end, we offer three practical steps to begin this effort: reflection on the firm's values, development of relationships, and cultivation of different forms of change. 相似文献
79.
The US economy has not recovered from the Great Recession as strongly as predicted by the neoclassical growth model, even after incorporating a variety of frictions to it. The paper explores quantitatively the hypothesis that the counterfactual predictions are mostly the result of ignoring the expectations of higher taxes prompted by unprecedented fiscal challenges faced by that country in peacetime. The main finding is that this fiscal sentiment hypothesis can account for a substantial fraction of the decline in investment and labor input in the aftermath of the Great Recession, provided the perceived higher taxes fall almost exclusively on capital income. 相似文献
80.
Huanan Xu 《Applied economics》2017,49(52):5370-5396
Using matched monthly CPS data, this article studies differences in labour force transitions across age groups focusing on periods prior to and after the start of the Great Recession. Monthly transitions between employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation of 25–55-year-old males are examined from 1996 through 2013. Prior to the Great Recession (1996–2007), younger groups of workers are more likely to move from employment to unemployment and face an increased risk beyond that of other workers of making this transition as the economy worsens; however, this differential responsiveness no longer appears after the start of the Great Recession. Before and after the start of the Great Recession, younger groups of workers are more likely to move from unemployment to employment; however, there is no extra responsiveness among younger workers to the business cycle. Transitions into and out of the labour force nuance these findings; however, there is no evidence of differential responsiveness among younger workers since the start of the Great Recession. These findings challenge interpretation of the movements of unemployment rates by age group over the business cycle as being driven by differential hiring and firing particularly since the start of the Great Recession. 相似文献