中国城镇贫困的变化趋势和模式:1988—2002

本文利用中国家庭收入项目(CHIP)调查数据,估计了1988—2002年中国城镇绝对贫困的变化趋势。根据CHIP调查数据所绘制的贫困发生曲线表明,不论把绝对贫困线确定在哪里,在该时期内中国城镇贫困都在显著减少。1988—1995年,收入分配不平等加剧,但此后基本保持稳定。分析收入和贫困决定因素的多元回归模型显示,教育、性别和中共党员等特征扩大了收入差异。来自政府反贫困措施的生活困难救助对减少城镇贫困影响很小。城镇贫困的缓解几乎完全归因于经济增长而非收入再分配。     

Spatial determinants of productivity: Analysis for the regions of Great Britain

This paper uses NUTS3 sub-regional data for Great Britain to analyse the determinants of spatial variations in income and productivity. We decompose the spatial variation of earnings into a productivity effect and an occupational composition effect. For the former (but not the latter) we find a robust relationship with proximity to economic mass, suggesting that doubling the population of working age proximate to an area is associated with a 3.5% increase in productivity in the area. We measure proximity by travel time, and show that effects decline steeply with time, ceasing to be important beyond approximately 80 min.     

Will democracy engender equality?

Summary. Many suppose that democracy is an ethos which requires, inter alia, a degree of economic equality among citizens. In contrast, we conceive of democracy as ruthless electoral competition between groups of citizens with different interests, who are organized into parties. We inquire whether such competition, which we assume to be concerned with distributive matters, will engender economic equality in the long run. Society is modeled as OLG, and each generation competes politically over educational finance and tax policy; the policy space is infinite dimensional. A political equilibrium concept is proposed which determines the membership of two parties endogenously, and their proposed policies in political competition. One party wins the election (stochastically). This process determines the evolution of the distribution of human capital. We show that, whether the limit distribution of human capital is an equal one depends upon the nature of intra-party bargaining and the degree of inequality in the original distribution.Received: 3 December 2002, Revised: 6 February 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D72, H2.This article reports on a longer project, to be published as Democracy, Education, and Equality (Cambridge University Press). Here, I motivate the problem, explain one of the models, and state one of the principal results. Proofs of theorems are omitted, but will be available in the aforementioned monograph. Many individuals have provided valuable comments and help on this project, including Ignacio Ortuño-Ortin, Herbert Scarf, Roger E. Howe, Karine Van der Straeten, John Geanokoplos, and Colin Stewart. I also acknowledge the useful comments of an anonymous referee for this journal. A preliminary version of this work was delivered as the Graz-Schumpeter Lectures at the University of Graz in May 2003, and I am grateful to the Graz Schumpeter Society for their hospitality and comments.The general topic of this article has been, I believe, of keen interest to Birgit Grodal, a dear friend and staunch supporter of my unconventional work in economic theory since I embarked upon that path in the late 1970s. I will always be deeply grateful for her friendship, support and encouragement, and I am honored to contribute this paper to her festschrift.     

区域环境对产业集群创新绩效的影响

基于创新环境学派和能力理论的相关观点,深入探讨区域环境对集群创新绩效的作用机制,通过对江苏省若干产业集群的调查,研究结果显示：社会文化对集群创新绩效具有直接的积极影响;要素环境、区域政策正向影响集群创新能力从而影响集群创新绩效;集群氛围通过对集群创新能力的作用对集群创新绩效产生倒U型影响。     

区域创新力量对区域知识产出的影响

以中部地区84个城市为研究对象,从空间角度对区域创新力量与知识产出之间的关系进行地理加权回归（GWR）分析。结果表明,中部大部分城市区域创新力量对知识产出具有正向影响,但在进行分变量、分城市分析时所表现的影响程度存在一定的差异性。此外,通过对主要自变量的GWR分析结果与绝对发展水平进行比较可以看出,区域创新相关变量绝对发展水平与区域知识产出之间的关系不大。这一结果表明,只有政府、企业和大学等创新主体在建立区域创新体系并对其进行合理运作的前提下,区域创新力量对知识产出才能发挥重要作用。最后,对区域创新体系下层结构因素进行了分析。     

我国校企知识转移研究定位分析

在介绍我国目前校企知识转移活动与相关学术研究现状的基础上,指出当前我国校企知识转移处于活动频繁而相关学术研究不足的失衡状态,提出基于提高企业自主创新能力的校企知识转移研究定位,并分析了3个主要问题,即：高校知识转移效率分析、利用校企知识转移提高企业自主创新能力、以及校企知识转移对构建区域创新体系的作用。     

An analysis of geographical agglomeration and modularized industrial networks in a regional cluster: A case study at Yamagata prefecture in Japan

In a regional innovation system, a dense inter-organizational network within the region is recognized as a key factor in enhancing knowledge diffusion, regional learning, and effective resource transfers. Therefore, understanding the network structure and physical proximity of organizations is essential. In this paper, we investigated the industrial structure of Yamagata prefecture in Japan as a case study. Because Yamagata is a representative industrial region, the analysis can also provide an insight into other industrial regions. Initially, we investigated the geographical dispersion of firms and found them to be agglomerated along Route 13 and the Tohoku Shinkansen railroad, indicating that infrastructures for transportation still have a decisive role in terms of site location. Subsequently, we analyzed the modular structure of the inter-firm network. The results showed that hub firms construct a different type of network and play different roles within the inter-firm network, reflecting their strategic choice. The results also showed that there is a tendency for firms to transact with those in close proximity, and that firm location is also affected by the location of the hub firm in the module in addition to the infrastructures.     

中国城镇家庭财产水平研究:基于行为的视角

本文首先提出了一个各种因素影响家庭财产水平的理论框架。然后通过对奥尔多投资研究中心2007年"城市投资者行为调查问卷"数据的处理和实证分析,估算了中国城镇居民的财产函数,重点考察了户主的主观行为特征在财产积累过程中的重要作用。本文发现:户主投资参与度与风险偏好度的提高有利于家庭财产水平的增加;与低收入或者经济相对落后地区的家庭相比,对高收入或者经济发达地区的家庭来说,投资参与度与风险偏好度对家庭财产水平的积极影响更显著一些。最后,针对政府如何促进居民财产水平的提升,本文给出了相关的政策建议。     

要素重置、经济增长与区域非平衡发展

研究目标：要素错配对经济增长和区域非均衡发展的影响。研究方法：运用提出的测算框架将经济增长分解为部门全要素生产率、要素禀赋和资源配置效率,并通过构建反事实框架重点探讨要素错配如何影响区域经济的非平衡发展。研究发现：2000~2013年要素再配置仅能解释中国经济增长的9.2%,中国经济增长主要依赖于要素积累和部门全要素生产率;部门全要素生产率、要素错配和要素禀赋分别可以解释区域非平衡发展的56.5%、30.7%和12.8%;要素完全有效配置将使得人均真实收入年均增加31.4%,但提升空间趋于缩小。研究创新：拓展传统经济增长分解方法并构建反事实框架研究要素错配的经济效应。研究价值：有助于深入理解要素配置在经济增长和区域非平衡发展中的重要性。     

中国物价波动与经济增长关系研究——基于城乡居民消费差距视角的分析

物价波动与经济增长之间的关系是经济学传统的研究课题。本文在测量城乡居民消费差距的基础上,利用TARCH模型研究了物价波动对城乡居民消费差距的非对称影响,并从城乡居民消费差距的视角分析了物价波动对经济增长的影响。研究结果表明:物价波动使得城乡居民消费差距的变化越来越小;物价波动与城乡居民消费差距之间呈负相关关系,当物价变动1%时,城乡居民消费差距反向变动0.579%;物价波动对经济增长有着负的直接影响;物价波动通过影响城乡居民消费差距进而对经济增长产生负的间接影响。