The Monetary Policy Model

Most monetary economists today conduct their analysis within some version of a rational expectations model. A well-defined equilibrium in such a model requires that the private sector understand policy goals and the policymakers' model of the economy. An austere version of the model, with no information asymmetries, is valid only to a first approximation but nevertheless provides core insights to short- and long-run monetary policy. In this model, effective policy requires clarity of policy goals and clarity of the policy model as to how the economy works. The central bank must enjoy sustained credibility in the markets. Communication should focus on policy fundamentals and the monetary authorities’ understanding of the economy, both of which are enhanced by continued research by monetary policy experts. JEL Classification E5     

Enhancing Fed Credibility

The Fed's credibility regarding control of inflation helps to anchor public expectations of price stability. This makes the Fed's actions more predictable in any given set of circumstances and thus strengthens the monetary policy transmission mechanism and shortens policy lags. The importance of the Fed's credibility can be illustrated by the consequences of its absence in the 1970s. This paper discusses the roots of the Fed's current credibility: a systematic approach to controlling inflation, transparency of its policy decisions, and timely communication of the decisions and the considerations upon which they are based. The paper also discusses areas in which there is room for further improvement. It argues that the most important future step would be to adopt specific inflation targets. Such a step would not only enhance credibility, it would help to focus policy-making itself. While there are some risks to establishing specific numerical targets, these risks can be managed and are outweighed by the benefits of explicit targets. JEL Classification E58     

基于技术创新能力的创新开放度研究

本文从技术创新能力的角度研究了技术创新软、硬能力对创新开放度的影响。对136家中国企业的调查数据显示,企业技术创新硬能力负向影响开放度显著,软能力与创新开放度正向关系显著。企业可以通过增减研发人员及设备的投入来调整开放度,通过提高协同创新能力、提升开放度来获得更多创新源。因此,在企业技术知识积累达到较高水平时要避免开放度下降而减少与外界的协同创新。     

提高我国农业及农产品经济效益的措施探讨

我国拥有九亿多农民,农业是农民收入的主要来源,提高农业及农产品经济效益是提高农民收入的基本途径,是促进农业和农村经济健康发展的重要举措。本文提出了调整财政政策、优化经济结构、提高资本积累等提高我国农业及农产品经济效益的措施。     

中国外汇储备的安全性研究

外汇储备的安全性关系到我国的金融安全,已成为我国经济发展中亟待研究解决的一个重要问题。我国的外汇储备保持了高于常规水平的规模,外汇储备广义上的安全性处于良好状态,高额外汇储备为金融安全增加了保险系数;而我国外汇储备狭义上的安全性,即外汇储备资产本身的安全却令人担忧,已经为高额的外汇储备付出巨大成本和承担了很高的风险,特别是在美元弱势明显的情况下将要进一步承受巨大的损失风险。同时高额外汇储备也对我国经济发展产生了一系列负面影响和风险,如果从这个意义上来看,我国外汇储备的现状已成为威胁金融安全的一个重要隐患。我国在外汇储备规模方面存在的种种理论误区,导致了政策偏差,使得我国外汇储备处于高风险状况之中。因此,我国外汇储备政策的调整已经刻不容缓。     

国际货币体系改革方向及其相关机制

当前的国际金融危机促进了改革国际货币体系的讨论,而对超主权国际储备货币与多元化国际货币体系的改革目标的讨论需要深化对相关机制的研究。本文分析了超主权国际储备货币的必要条件和特别提款权的缺陷及改革的复杂性,提出将多元化的国际货币体系作为现实选择,认为美元、欧元与亚洲关键货币将成为多元化国际货币体系的核心;推行多元化的国际货币体系也需完善国际汇率协调机制,对美元发行应建立国际制衡机制。     

循环积累因果原理与青藏高原特色农业国际竞争力

目前我国以农业国际竞争力的五层次论为基点,针对青藏高原特色农业国际竞争力不足的问题,借鉴西方经济学“循环积累因果原理”,由于把社会经济作为一个整体,分析各相关因素的因果联系,并在分析因素时考虑到非经济因素的影响,因此具有一定的合理性和科学成分。所以对提升青藏高原特色农业国际竞争力很有借鉴意义。     

Transitional dynamics of the R&D growth model with public education

This study analyzes the transition dynamics of the R&D-based growth model with public education, based on [Prettner, K. (2014). The non-monotonous impact of population growth on economic prosperity. Economics Letters, 124, 93–95]. We show that the equilibrium path can be monotonous or oscillatory, but may not converge depending on the value of parameters. Thus, we determine and indicate the sufficient condition for long-run oscillation to emerge. In addition, we find that the technological progress rate speeds up during the long-run balanced growth path when income tax rates for public education rise. This result is consistent with empirical analysis.     

Bank profitability and interest rate risk

It is frequently asserted that the profitability of institutions that lend long and borrow short is restricted during periods of rising interest rates. In banking circles this assertion has been translated into a concern primarily for the soundness of smaller banks, which are commonly thought to hold a large proportion of their portfolios in longer term fixed-rate loans and thus face considerable interest rate risk. Moreover, with the popularity of the new “NOW” accounts and competing money market mutual funds, there is a fear that a potential profit squeeze at these institutions has been made more probable. The present study examines the issue of the interest rate sensitivity of commercial bank profitability at a theoretical level and attempts to measure empirically the extent to which the profitability of different size classes of banks has been affected by periods of changing interest rates since 1976. This study finds that small commercial banks as a group have actually experienced increased profitability both absolutely and relative to large banks in recent periods (since 1976) of rising interest rates. However, this variation is numerically small. This finding calls into question both the usefulness of the maturity composition model as a predictor of interest rate risk and the concern for the supposed plight of small banks during periods of rising interest rates.     

美国物质产品生产部门产能过剩变动趋势及其原因的经验分析

1990-2011年美国采掘业、制造业和公用事业的资本积累和产出不断增长．但这种增长的背后却存在越来越严重的产能过剩问题。为了解释这一现象,笔者提出二个假定并进行统计检验,结果表明三部门的产能过剩主要归因于生产部门整体资本有机构成、三部门自身的利润率和资本积累的变化。此分析结果对于区分中国产能过剩形成过程中政府和市场的不同作用有一定借鉴意义。