新兴加转轨条件下中国证券公司的风险成因及监控

证券业是一个高风险行业 ,防范和化解风险是证券公司和监管机构的永恒主题。随着我国证券市场的蓬勃发展和逐渐规范 ,证券公司风险监控已经成为一项长期的重大任务。中国目前正处于新兴加转轨过程中 ,证券公司主要面临哪些风险 ?是如何形成的 ?在特定约束条件下怎样提高监控效率 ?围绕这些问题 ,本文首先对中国证券公司的风险及其成因进行分析 ,接着从实践的角度指出风险监控的现实约束 ,最后提出内外部风险监控协调与平衡的基本架构。     

社交指数、风险倾向与创业

创业不仅是经济持续增长的动力,也是新常态下我国经济增长方式转变的重要源泉。从个人社交指数和风险倾向着手,分析其对个人创业的影响,同时考虑政府干预、市场成熟度和产权保护水平对社交指数和风险倾向与创业之间的调节作用,并将个人特质和区域因素作为控制变量纳入分析框架,运用CGSS 3年的数据进行实证分析。结果表明,个人社交指数对创业具有正向影响,个人风险倾向对创业的影响存在区域异质性。在农村地区,个人风险倾向对创业活动具有正向影响,即风险倾向越高,创业概率越大;而在城镇,个人风险倾向对创业的影响为负。在制度环境层面,政府干预和市场成熟度对创业具有负向影响,产权保护水平与创业之间存在“倒U型”关系,制度环境对社交指数与创业之间的关系具有调节作用,较高政府干预力度和较低市场成熟度使社交指数与创业负相关,而产权保护水平的调节作用则较弱;制度环境对风险倾向的调节作用较弱。     

Dynamic decision trees for building resilience into future eco-cities

Intensifying global urbanization and environmental changes bring about the imperative of sustainable urban development and decisions upon inescapable pressures and risks, but knowledge integration between disciplines is a limiting contextual challenge. This paper proposes a reformulation, in terms of urban risk management, of an earlier developed ontological scenario generation method. The procedure consists of several steps: (i) identification-and-prioritization of main pressures, (ii) paired discussion of pressures using four-cell matrices, (iii) re-visit of the pressures' priority order, (iv) articulation of short-listed pressures as decision-making questions, and (v) generation of scenarios via “yes/no” responses to each question, in their order of priority. In this article, the method feeds upon the general context described in recent multi-disciplinary urban studies and public strategic plans in the city of Iasi (Romania), to propose a formal procedure for enabling the acceleration of productive decision making towards city sustainability. Answering three top priority questions, namely “Implement a business-friendly and efficient governance system?”, “Develop a resource management system?”, and “Carry out a human capital accelerator strategy?” results in a 4-scenario set: Receding City, Wanting City, Promising City, Inspiring City. The scenarios are discussed in terms of systemic risks at the end of post-communist transition and beginning of the socio-economic convergence with Western Europe.     

高新技术企业R&D联盟风险评价指标体系研究

R&D联盟是高新技术企业参与市场竞争和获得技术优势的有效路径和重要模式,但也具有较高的风险。针对R&D联盟可控的风险因素进行了分析,构建了高新技术企业R&D联盟风险评价指标体系,并给出了指标采集及应用方法。     

浅谈金融危机下我国商业银行的内部控制

我国商业银行的内部控制正处于不断完善与发展的阶段,2007年至今的金融危机不可否认的为商业银行的内部控制提出新要求,但同时也为银行提供了一个发展壮大的良机。本文通过分析当今经济形势以及国内外的商业银行内部控制情况,为我国商业银行的内部控制制度提供了内部控制模式重构、提升人员胜任能力、提高内部审计的独立性、提升风险管理水平、严格控制贷款流向以及提高上市商业银行内部控制的披露质量的对策。     

In-hospital risk of venous thromboembolism and bleeding and associated costs for patients undergoing total hip or knee arthroplasty

Abstract

Objective:

Benefits of anti-coagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) prevention in total hip and knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA) may be offset by increased risk of bleeding. The aim was to assess in-hospital risk of VTE and bleeding after THA/TKA and quantify any increased costs.

Methods:

Healthcare claims from the Premier Perspective^TM Comparative Hospital Database (January 2000–September 2008) were selected for subjects ≥18 years with ≥1 diagnosis code for THA/TKA. VTE was defined as ≥1 code for deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism. Bleeding was classified as major/non-major. Incremental in-hospital costs associated with VTE and bleeding were calculated as cost differences between inpatients with VTE or bleeding matched 1:1 with inpatients without VTE or bleeding.

Results:

A total of 820,197 inpatient stays were identified: 8042 had a VTE event and 7401 a bleeding event (2740 major bleeding). The risks of VTE, any bleeding, and major bleeding were 0.98, 0.90, and 0.33/100 inpatient stays, respectively. Mean incremental in-hospital costs per inpatient were $2663 for VTE, $2028 for bleeding, and $3198 for major bleeding.

Limitations:

These included possible inaccuracies or omissions in procedures, diagnoses, or costs of claims data; no information on the amount of blood transfused or decreases in the hemoglobin level to evaluate bleeding event severity; and potential biases due to the observational design of the study.

Conclusions:

In-hospital risk and incremental all-cause costs with THA/TKA were higher for VTE than for bleeding. Despite higher costs, major bleeding occurred less frequently than VTE, suggesting a favorable benefit/risk profile for VTE prophylaxis in THA/TKA.     

Supply chain risk analysis: a shipbuilding industry case

A lack of empirical studies on Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) is observed, especially in the industries of large projects. Therefore, this paper conducts a risk analysis on the Brazilian Shipbuilding Industry by generating an initial risk profile. A panel was conducted with executives from major shipyards, and the primary risks were identified, assessed, and evaluated. Findings corroborate the academic literature, reinforcing that companies recognise the importance of SCRM, but the concept is incipient and far from being successfully implemented in real life. Despite the fact that the shipyards identified important risks, the focus was on internal factors. Because the industry was exposed to risks from the external environment, no risk mitigation actions existed, resulting in the bankruptcy of many shipbuilders. This research is an initial step toward investigating SCRM techniques, offering academics a novel empirical approach that can serve as a systematic risk management tool for supply chain planning.     

A view of the European Union as an evolving country portfolio

We apply portfolio theory to assess the consequences in terms of risk sharing of the evolution of the industry mix of European Union countries between 1986 and 1997, and of the changes in the membership configurations of both economic and monetary unions. We compute a measure of risk-return performance for EU countries, by considering countries as collections of industries, and observe that risk-return performance improved in most countries. We find that the EU9 is marginally more efficient than the other historical EU groupings and that the Euro Zone might slightly benefit from the inclusion of the United Kingdom.     

货币政策对金融生态的影响机理及实证检验——基于上市商业银行面板数据的分析

传统的货币理论忽视了货币政策对银行风险承担及金融生态的影响,文章从商业银行的微观视角出发研究了货币政策对金融生态的影响机理。理论层面,金融生态与货币政策制度供给、传导机制和有效性相互关联,货币政策则通过资产价格或估值机制、收入及现金流机制、追求收益机制、杠杆调整机制、道德风险机制和风险转移机制影响商业银行的风险承担;实证层面,构建了货币政策影响商业银行信贷投放和风险承担的数理模型,选取国有和股份制两类共12家上市商业银行2008-2013年的面板数据进行固定效应模型实证检验。结果表明,宽松货币政策导致商业银行的信贷投放规模增加、风险承担意愿增强,有利于优化金融生态,反之则反是;国有商业银行对货币政策变化更敏感,而股份制商业银行对金融生态更敏感。因此,在我国宏观经济管理中,需要货币政策与宏观审慎政策相互协调配合。     

More pessimism than greediness: a characterization of monotone risk aversion in the rank-dependent expected utility model

Summary. This paper studies monotone risk aversion, the aversion to monotone, mean-preserving increase in risk (Quiggin [21]), in the Rank Dependent Expected Utility (RDEU) model. This model replaces expected utility by another functional, characterized by two functions, a utility function u in conjunction with a probability-perception function f. Monotone mean-preserving increases in risk are closely related to the notion of comparative dispersion introduced by Bickel and Lehmann [3,4] in Non-parametric Statistics. We present a characterization of the pairs (u,f) of monotone risk averse decision makers, based on an index of greediness G _u of the utility function u and an index of pessimism P _f of the probability perception function f: the decision maker is monotone risk averse if and only if . The index of greediness (non-concavity) of u is the supremum of taken over . The index of pessimism of f is the infimum of taken over 0 < v < 1. Thus, , with G _u = 1 iff u is concave. If then , i.e., f is majorized by the identity function. Since P _f = 1 for Expected Utility maximizers, forces u to be concave in this case; thus, the characterization of risk aversion as is a direct generalization from EU to RDEU. A novel element is that concavity of u is not necessary. In fact, u must be concave only if P _f = 1.Received: 10 April 2001, Revised: 18 November 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D81. Correspondence to: Michéle CohenAlain Chateauneuf, Michéle Cohen, Isaac Meilijson: We are most grateful to Mark Machina, Peter Wakker and two anonymous referees for very helpful suggestions and comments.