The impact of parental migration on non-cognitive abilities of left behind children in northwestern China

Despite the vast literature surrounding various aspects of left behind children (LBC)’s development in China, very few studies have examined the development of, and impact on their non-cognitive abilities as a result of parental migration. Using survey data consisting of 5002 eighth graders from 160 middle schools in northwestern China, this paper investigates how parental migration affects children’s non-cognitive abilities, as is measured by Big Five components of conscientiousness, extraversion, neuroticism, agreeableness, and openness, as well as children’s grit. We narrow our analysis to long run and short run migration subsamples and use the propensity score matching method to address the potential selection bias issue. Our results show that mother’s migration is particularly harmful to the development of children’s non-cognitive abilities, as mother is usually the primary caregiver and mother’s migration makes less economic contribution to the family. In the long run, LBC with migrant mother tend to have lower levels of conscientiousness and grit; they also have higher level of neuroticism (or lower level of emotional stability). In the short run, when mother migrates, children tend to have lower levels of conscientiousness, agreeableness and openness.     

Will We Ever Meet Again? The Relationship between Inter-Firm Managerial Migration and the Circulation of Client Ties

A large body of research shows that the migration of managers from one professional service firm to another weakens the old employer’s relationship with its clients, because migrating managers remove their relationship-specific knowledge and expertise – i.e., human and social capital – from their old employers, redeploying it to their new employers. This study extends this research by introducing a bi-directional perspective of social capital in which both firms and managers may exploit these relationship-specific resources. We use theory on social capital to build arguments about how one form of manager mobility, manager migration between two service providers in a single market, can both lead and lag the movement of client ties between those providers, and signaling theory to hypothesize the conditions under which this is likely to occur. Analyses using longitudinal data on New York City advertising agencies generally support our arguments. Our findings contribute to theory and research on manager migration, social capital, and signaling, and raise new questions for how the portability of relationship-specific social capital shapes markets.     

Estimating and interpreting internal migration flows in Russia by accounting for network effects

The present article follows two objectives. First, to apply a recently developed spatial interaction model and discuss its power in explaining social developments. Second, to obtain information on internal migration's determinants in Russia by taking into account that its eastern and western regions differ in many respects. Two alternative panel specifications are considered, labelled “spatial interaction specification with exogenous spatial lags” and “gravity-type specification with network effects”. While both specifications are designed to capture the impacts of neighbouring regions in migration dynamics, they differ with respect to the implementation of fixed effects. It is argued that neighbourhood impacts manifest themselves either as spillover effects, which amplify a variable's impact, or competition effects, which attenuate them. The results show that variables indeed differ from each other in these respects, demonstrating how migration patterns are subject to events beyond the directly involved regions, and that these are furthermore influenced by the distances between regions. In addition, the results provide further evidence that migration determinants differ for Eastern and Western Russia.     

Drug‐related violence and the decline in the number of Mexican cross‐border workers

This study examines how variations in homicide rates in Mexico are associated with the likelihood of participating in cross‐border work, that is, living in Mexico but working in the U.S. Based on Mexican census data from 2000, 2010, and 2015, and information on homicides, a series of ordinary least squares models are estimated to analyze the relationship between cross‐border commuting and homicide rates at the individual level. Fixed effects models are also estimated to study this relationship at the municipal level. The results show that from 2000 to 2010 the increase in homicide rates in northern border municipalities in Mexico reduced the likelihood of being a cross‐border worker, while from 2010 to 2015 the decrease in the homicide rate increased the probability that workers engage in cross‐border work. The decline in the number of cross‐border workers is likely in part a result of the escalation in drug‐related violence that may have led them to change their country of residence.     

Migrants' Home Town Associations and Local Development in Mali

We explore the impact of migrants' Home Town Associations (HTAs) on the provision of public goods in Mali. We combine an original dataset on all the HTAs created by Malian migrants in France from 1981 with census data on public goods in all Malian villages since 1976, and we run double‐difference estimations to compare villages with and without an HTA, before and after the creation of the HTAs. We find robust evidence that the provision of schools, health centers, and, to a lesser extent, water amenities has increased significantly faster in villages targeted by an HTA between 1987 and 2009 than in control villages.     

Labor and behavior determinants of remittances in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is the second largest sender of international remittances. These remittances constitute large foreign capital inflows to labor‐exporting remittee economies. This study is the first to structurally decompose remittance dynamics into behavioral and labor market outcomes of migrants. Remittance outflows are decomposed into migrant labor supply, unemployment and participation rates, wage earnings, and the marginal propensity to remit (MPR) out of migrant earnings. The estimates suggest that migrant labor supply is highly elastic. The important driver of remittance dynamics is the MPR, migrant wages, and the labor supply of migrants. The MPR is found to respond counter‐cyclically to foreign gross domestic product.     

Assigning Refugees to Landlords in Sweden: Efficient,Stable, and Maximum Matchings*

In this paper, we investigate the problem of finding housing for refugees once they have been granted asylum. In particular, we demonstrate that market design can play an important role in a partial solution to the problem. More specifically, we investigate a specific matching system, and we propose an easy-to-implement mechanism that finds an efficient, stable, and maximum matching. Such a matching guarantees that housing is efficiently provided to a maximum number of refugees, and that no refugee prefers another specific landlord to their current match when, at the same time, that specific landlord prefers that refugee to their own current match.     

Voting with your feet: Political competition and internal migration in the United States

Do people “vote with their feet” in response to a lack of political competition? Since political competition is associated with higher growth and welfare, with the free movement of labour, we argue that it should also encourage inward migration. We test this hypothesis by using data from the US and find a strong positive relation between political competition and net migration. This result is robust to alternative specifications, alternative samples and addressing endogeneity using the Voting Rights Act to instrument for political competition. The effect is economically large, specifically, we find that an increase in political competition in the order of magnitude observed in US Southern states during the post-war period leads to an increase in net migration by between 27 and 44 individuals per 1000 population.     

Probabilistic wind forecasting up to three months ahead using ensemble predictions for geopotential height

We develop a method for forecasting the distribution of the daily surface wind speed at timescales from 15-days to 3-months in France. On such long-term timescales, ensemble predictions of the surface wind speed have poor performance, however, the wind speed distribution may be related to the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere, for which the ensemble forecasts have better skill. The information from the large-scale circulation, represented by the 500 hPa geopotential height, is summarized into a single index by first running a PCA and then a polynomial regression. We estimate, over 20 years of daily data, the conditional probability density of the wind speed at a specific location given the index. We then use the ECMWF seasonal forecast ensemble to predict the index for horizons from 15-days to 3-months. These predictions are plugged into the conditional density to obtain a distributional forecast of surface wind. These probabilistic forecasts remain sharper than the climatology up to 1-month forecast horizon. Using a statistical postprocessing method to recalibrate the ensemble leads to further improvement of our probabilistic forecast, which then remains calibrated and sharper than the climatology up to 3-months horizon, particularly in the north of France in winter and fall.