Fiscal Stimulus in Times of High Debt: Reconsidering Multipliers and Twin Deficits

We investigate the impact of fiscal stimuli at different levels of the government debt‐to‐GDP ratio for a sample of 17 European countries from 1970 to 2010. This is implemented in an interacted panel VAR framework in which all coefficient parameters are allowed to change continuously with the debt‐to‐GDP ratio. We find that responses to government spending shocks exhibit strong nonlinear behavior. While the overall cumulative effect of a spending shock on real GDP is positive and significant at moderate debt‐to‐GDP ratios, this effect turns negative as the ratio increases. The total cumulative effect on the trade balance as a share of GDP is negative at first but switches sign at higher levels of debt. Consequently, depending on the degree of public indebtedness, our results accommodate long‐run fiscal multipliers that are greater and smaller than one or even negative as well as twin deficit and twin divergence behavior within one sample and time period. From a policy perspective, these results lend additional support to increased prudence at high public debt ratios because the effectiveness of fiscal stimuli to boost economic activity or resolve external imbalances may not be guaranteed.     

Trade Openness and Exchange Rate Regimes

The paper evaluates the net welfare gains of inflation targeting over a fixed exchange rate as a function of a country's trade openness, using a multisectoral structural model calibrated to Chile. For most calibrations with separable preferences, net welfare gains are increasing in trade openness. The reason is that in more open economies terms of trade shocks, which favor inflation targeting, become quantitatively more important, while price markup shocks in the imperfectly competitive nontradables sector, which favor exchange rate targeting, become less important. The most important exception is heavily indebted countries, where net welfare gains are decreasing in trade openness.     

The Effectiveness of Technical Trading for Arab Stocks

In this paper, we examine the profitability of technical analysis for a cross section of individual Arab stocks. Our analysis, undertaken from the perspective of an Islamic investor, reveals that technical trading rules do not yield economically or statistically significant returns. While our results uncover some scant statistical evidence of technical trading rule profitability, risk adjusting the returns weakens the evidence in favor of predictability. Furthermore, break-even transaction costs do not exceed estimated transaction costs or bid-ask spreads in the markets examined.     

The Role of Product-Level Dynamics in Export Growth and Productivity: Evidence from Estonia

Recent empirical studies of international trade have stressed that firm-level decisions about the number of export products or markets are an important margin of adjustment in response to globalization and changes in economic conditions. We investigate how decisions about the export product mix are associated with aggregate export dynamics and productivity of firms. We use detailed data on product and export market levels for the full population of Estonia's firms. Decomposition analysis of trade flows shows that both the relative importance of firms' beginning to export products and the role of product-level churning (firms' adding and dropping of products) in total Estonian export growth increases significantly after accession to the European Union in 2004. We show that concentration on core competence products has a rather different association with productivity of firms in different-size groups. Large firms with a large number of different types of export products gain, on average, in terms of productivity from concentrating their export sales on their core export products. There is no such general regularity in the case of small firms.     

Covid-19, Economic Growth and South African Fiscal Policy

Following years of fast-rising debt levels, we show that the Covid-19 crisis worsened an already deteriorating fiscal position in South Africa. To restore fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the crisis some commentators argue that higher government expenditure will grow GDP sufficiently to stabilise the debt/GDP ratio. We reject this, showing that although a real increase in expenditure stimulates economic growth (a short-run, once-off effect), the public expenditure/GDP ratio exceeds the level at which an increase in the ratio positively impacts growth. We then explore the past efforts of government to maintain or restore fiscal sustainability by estimating a fiscal reaction function using a Markov-switching model. Following the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the budget, we subsequently establish the deficit, expenditure and revenue adjustments that the government will have to make to restore fiscal sustainability. Finally, we consider the merits of introducing a debt ceiling.     

中国企业应对国际合法林产品贸易需求现状调研分析

在问卷调查,利益方访谈和实地调研的基础上,对中国企业应对国际合法林产品贸易需求的现状进行了调查和分析,包括对非法采伐贸易法规的认知程度、产生的影响、市场需求、已有的应对措施、面临的挑战,并提出了如何应对的政策建议。结果表明:欧美发达国家纷纷出台的针对非法采伐的贸易法规已对包括中国在内的国际林产品贸易产生了重要影响;中国企业在满足国际市场林产品合法性要求还面临很多的困难与挑战,应从政策、技术、管理和能力建设等多方面提供支持。     

中国-东盟木质林产品贸易竞争性与互补性研究

基于UNcomtrade数据库整理的数据,分析中国与东盟木质林产品贸易状况,并利用显示性比较优势指数与贸易互补性指数分析中国与东盟木质林产品贸易的竞争性与互补性。结果表明,中国与东盟木质林产品进出口贸易总体呈增长趋势,贸易竞争性与互补性并存,木质家具、单板、人造板、木制品等劳动密集型木质林产品的竞争性大于互补性,原木、其他原材、锯材等资源密集型木质林产品互补性大于竞争性,软木及回收纸等木质林产品竞争性与互补性均不强。     

改革开放以来我国粮食贸易政策演变及启示

分析了改革开放以来我国粮食贸易政策的演变,并从规模特征、品种特征、进出口国家或地区分布特征等3个方面分析了我国粮食贸易发展特征,最后提出保障我国粮食安全的粮食贸易政策.     

我国稀土外贸管制实施效果及困境分析

本文分析了我国对于稀土产品出口外贸管制面临的几大瓶颈问题：内外贸政策的一致性、价格传导机制影响实体经济、环境保护及可持续发展问题。通过分析发现,出口限制有效地改善了出口的价格劣势,但是国内市场行业集中度的提高和企业分散经营同时并存;管制让市场形成了价格上涨的预期,引致企业之间的无序扩张,放大了产业链的“牛鞭效应”并最终损害了行业利益;虽然能源利用效率得到提高,但对环境污染问题却有加重趋势,尤其是在稀土金属矿采选行业。最后提出需要转变监管方式,以资源税、环境税替代关税等措施;让市场信息充分流动．减少行政干预,改变国有企业独大的现状：加强环境保护的监管等。     

基于贸易国内增加值视角的中国外贸依存度研究

在国际分工和全球生产价值链深化背景下,按贸易国内增加值来核算贸易额必将成为贸易新统计标准。为此,本文从贸易国内增加值视角,利用WIOT数据库提供的单区域（进口）非竞争型投入产出表,提出基于出口贸易国内增加值的外贸依存度测算方法。结果表明：样本期间内,中国外贸依存度总体上呈迅速上升趋势,其计算结果高于沈氏公式的测算结果,低于传统公式测算的结果;中国具有出口优势的产业逐渐由劳动密集型产业转向资本密集型产业。加入WTO之前,中国外贸依存度仅高于美国、日本、巴西、土耳其和印度,与澳大利亚、法国和墨西哥相近,处于适中水平;加入WTO之后,中国大陆外贸依存度持续攀升,至2008年仅低于中国台湾,2009年虽下降,但仅低于中国台湾、韩国、欧盟和德国。进一步观察发现,在整个样本期间内,中国大陆劳动密集型产业和金属冶炼及压延加工业的外贸依存度有所下降,而电气与光学设备制造业外贸依存度呈上升趋势,至2009年,仅低于中国台湾与墨西哥。