虚拟财务管理研究

为了适应全球经济一体化的新形势，使财务管理满足国际化的要求，文章提出了虚拟财务管理概念，阐述了虚拟财务管理的特点及其与传统财务管理的区别，论述了虚拟财务管理的基本内容，分析了实现虚拟财务管理存在的障碍和困难并提出了改进建议。     

全面理解人力资本的经济价值——教育经济学与培训经济学的融合

教育经济学不应只是正规学校教育的经济学,在终身学习的理念下,正规学校教育的结束并不意味着学习步伐的停滞和人力资本投资的终结。教育经济学未来拓展的路径,除了理论基础上的"外延式"发展外,还可以在原有的人力资本理论框架内走一条"内涵式"发展的道路,即强调综合考察人力资本投资的多种途径,特别是教育和培训这两种最主要的人力资本投资形式,让教育经济学走出正规学校教育经济学的固有领地,团结在人力资本理论的名义下,与培训经济学融合,走向人力资源开发研究的广阔天地,惟其如此,才能全面、深入地研究人力资本的经济价值及其实现机制。     

发展我国养老保险的思考

本文分析了现阶段养老保险中人口老龄化的压力日益加剧，覆盖范围明显过窄，已入保群体“空账运行”，养老待遇过低等问题，提出了提高退休年龄、降低缴费比率、将社会统筹基金与个人账户基金实行分账管理、让基金保值增值加快社会保障制度立法等若干相关政策建议。     

A model of fractional cointegration, and tests for cointegration using the bootstrap

The paper proposes a framework for modelling cointegration in fractionally integrated processes, and considers methods for testing the existence of cointegrating relationships using the parametric bootstrap. In these procedures, ARFIMA models are fitted to the data, and the estimates used to simulate the null hypothesis of non-cointegration in a vector autoregressive modelling framework. The simulations are used to estimate p-values for alternative regression-based test statistics, including the F goodness-of-fit statistic, the Durbin–Watson statistic and estimates of the residual d. The bootstrap distributions are economical to compute, being conditioned on the actual sample values of all but the dependent variable in the regression. The procedures are easily adapted to test stronger null hypotheses, such as statistical independence. The tests are not in general asymptotically pivotal, but implemented by the bootstrap, are shown to be consistent against alternatives with both stationary and nonstationary cointegrating residuals. As an example, the tests are applied to the series for UK consumption and disposable income. The power properties of the tests are studied by simulations of artificial cointegrating relationships based on the sample data. The F test performs better in these experiments than the residual-based tests, although the Durbin–Watson in turn dominates the test based on the residual d.     

Tolerance for uncertainty and the growth of informationally opaque industries

Hofstede's [Hofstede, Geert H. 1980. Culture's consequences: international differences in work-related values. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.] cross-country psychological survey of IBM employees finds that some countries (societies) are systematically less tolerant of uncertainty, while uncertainty-tolerance is shown by some theoretic models to be essential to the growth of emerging sectors about which less is known. This paper first uses Durnev, Morck, and Yeung's [Durnev, Art, Morck, Randall, and Yeung, Bernard. 2004. Value-enhancing capital budgeting and firm-specific stock return variation. The Journal of Finance. 59(1): 65–105.] methodology to identify these informationally opaque industries. The hypothesis is then made that countries characterized by high uncertainty aversion (measured by Hofstede's indicator, and two other alternative indicators) will grow disproportionately slower in industrial sectors where information is less available. Using the Rajan and Zingales [Rajan, Raghuram G. and Zingales, Luigi. 1998. Financial Dependence and Growth. American Economic Review. Vol. 88(3): 559–586.] “difference-in-differences” methodology, which is relatively free from the endogeneity problem, the study provides robust evidence of such an industrial growth pattern in 34 countries and 36 manufacturing industries. It also shows that national uncertainty aversion is not driven by underdevelopment of financial sector, inadaptability of civil law systems, lower level of economic or human capital development, labor market inflexibility, or any of many other institutional factors. The results remain robust when religious (Catholic vs. Protestant) composition is used as an instrumental variable for national uncertainty aversion. The international evidence presented helps explain why some countries are slower in embracing “new” (vs. traditional) industries.     

刍议"以德治国"的特殊社会功能

本文道德建设探讨了以德治国的社会功能。阐述了“以德治国”的重要性和必要性。     

Bureaucratic integration and regional specialization in China

Fiscal decentralization introduced as part of China's economic reform since 1979 has unleashed strong incentives for China's local governments to pursue economic development, but the same incentives have also led to local protectionist policies inhibiting the process of regional specialization. This paper focuses on the constraints or freedom with which local governments can implement their protectionist policies. Using a panel data of 29 China's regions over the time period of 1985–1997, we find that China's political system of bureaucratic integration (specifically, concurrent appointment of local government officials in the central government) imposes constraints on the local governments from practicing protectionism. We also find that the effectiveness of local protectionist policies is limited by market competition, specifically, competition from foreign-invested firms operating in China and foreign imports. Our results on the role of local protectionism remain robust to controls for the regional variations in the size of the economy and the stage of economic development.     

Catching up: The role of demand, supply and regulated price effects on the real exchange rates of four accession countries

The main aim of this paper is to examine the exchange rate behaviour of a group of four transitional, EU accession countries, with a view to making policy recommendations regarding their full accession to the European Monetary Union. We employ a dynamic OLS panel estimator to investigate the relative importance of demand and supply influences on the exchange rates of these countries. Our analysis shows that both supply‐ and demand‐side effects are important for the accession countries, although their overall effect on inflation differentials and competitiveness seems to be small. An additional focus of the paper is the examination of the role that administrated, or regulated, prices and the productivity of the distribution sector play in the real exchange rate dynamics. Using a unique database we show that administrative prices have been a powerful force behind price and real exchange developments for our group of accession countries. The distribution sector is shown to have an independent effect on the internal price ratio over and above that generated by the Balassa–Samuelson effect.     

温台沿海产业带区域物流一体化对策研究

温台沿海产业带经济一体化是浙江经济发展的重点，对带动浙江省经济发展有重要意义。构建温台沿海产业带区域一体化的物流体系，将加速该区域产业集聚，提升区域综合竞争力，进一步促进经济一体化的进程。文章分析了温台两地物流发展的现状及制约因素，提出了促进温台沿海产业带区域物流一体化发展的若干对策。     

Experiments in Environmental Economics and Some Close Relatives

Abstract.  It is not only the great number of papers written on environment economics that make it worth dealing with this special branch of experimental research, but the environmental problem in all its facets seems to serve as a catalyst for identifying some methodological problems of the experimental method. For this reason, we will not only try to give an overview of recent experiments in environmental economics but also add some thoughts on the methodological implications of this work. We identify three direct connecting factors for the experimental method and environmental economics. First, social dilemmas are, in many cases, at the core of environmental problems. Experiments are able to test theoretical hypotheses for individual behavior in such social dilemma situations. The second connecting factor comes from the field of applied experimental work and can be characterized as the testbedding of institutional arrangements for the solution of environmental problems. The last direct application of experimental methods to environmental economics concerns the individual evaluation of environmental resources.