政策网络的结构与治理:以我国房地产宏观调控政策为例

房地产的宏观调控是我国政府公共管理能力的核心体现,然而,近年来其调控效果并不显著.作为一种新兴的分析工具--政策网络能较好地掌握与处理多元角色参与公共政策制定的议题.因此,本文从政策网络的视角,通过理论研究和案例分析,探讨房地产政策网络的结构特征及其治理机制.研究发现:我国房地产宏观调控的困境关键在于政策网络的开放度太...     

Unemployment in Greece: Evidence from Greek regions using panel unit root tests

The purpose of the paper is to examine the nature of Greek regional unemployment. The paper contributes to the literature assessing the stochastic properties of Greek unemployment rate in the context of the Greek regions by relying on various univariate and panel unit root tests. In particular, recently developed and more powerful panel unit-root tests that control for structural breaks, heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence in the panel are employed. The results show that in all cases, after taking into account the fact that regional unemployment rates in Greece are subject to a structural break, the null hypothesis of a unit root is not rejected, indicating that the Greek regional unemployment series are non-stationary with the presence of a structural break.     

Revisiting Purchasing Power Parity in OECD

This study revisits Purchasing Power Parity theory (PPP) in the 34 OECD countries during January 1994–August 2013. We use a new panel stationary test with both sharp breaks and smooth shifts, a novel approach to panel unit-root testing, proposed by Bahmani–Oskooee et al. (2014). The results indicate that the PPP holds in half of the 34 OECD countries. These results indicate the importance of proper modelling of both sharp breaks and smooth shifts in real effective exchange rate series of OECD countries.     

Modeling how institutional investors allocate business to brokers

A model of how institutional investors evaluate and allocate business to brokers shows a complex pattern of influences. The broker's ability to execute transactions at appropriate prices is basic, but this combines with research and sales force performance to build a relationship that affects over-time allocation of business. It is difficult to separate relationship and selling performance, and relationship is subject to considerable decay. Research ability has a weak effect on business allocated on the basis of trading, while trading ability does affect business allocated on the basis of research.     

Complexity and the limits to learning

In this paper we look at the manner in which ideas coming from complexity science change our understanding of the cognitive powers of agents that is really necessary to explain the evolution of markets and of firms. The general ideas behind complex systems dynamics and evolution are presented and then two examples are treated in detail. The first in an evolutionary model of a market in which some new product is developed by competing firms and their “task” is to find a strategy in terms of quality and price that will be sustainable. This essentially requires agents/firms to discover mutually compatible strategies, and to create thereby sustainable market niches. The second example considers the internal structure of firms, in terms of their constituent working practices and skills. It demonstrates that it is precisely their ignorance of the consequences of adopting any particular practice that generates diversity in the emergent capabilities of firms, exploring the dimension of potential demand and therefore leading to a successful and sustainable business sector. The work supports the notion that the cognitive abilities that are involved are not about deduction and logic, as a traditional view of rationality might suggest, but are about the development and contraction of interpretive frameworks, which will be different for each player. The paper links these examples to a general recognition of the idea that complex, multi-agent systems evolve through successive “structural attractors”—multi-dimensional dynamical systems—with temporary structural stability. Because real systems contain both the structure and deviations from it, then there is a constant probing of structural stability and the possibility of qualitative change to a new structural attractor. This resembles the ideas in biological evolution related to “punctuated equilibria,” but it also links this to the idea of emergent and evolving networks of interaction, never of course near thermodynamic equilibrium.      

解决农村义务教育投入保障中的制度缺陷——对中央转移支付作用及事权体制调整的思考

财权与事权不匹配的矛盾是解决农村义务教育投入保障中的最大难点,受财力制约和宏观政策引导缺位的影响,地方投入为主的财政制度很难为义务教育发展提供全面、长远的支持。针对学界期望通过创新或完善中央转移支付制度解决农村义务教育投入的观点,本文提出不同看法:单纯依靠转移支付制度的改进来解决农村义务教育的地区差异和保障农村义务教育的公共投入是不可能的,只有在事权体制上做大的调整,将农村义务教育事权上划中央政府和财政,才是解决该问题的最佳选择。本文尝试通过建立计量模型,从保障农村义务教育投入中的制度缺陷的视角构建框架,为农村义务教育事权体制改革寻求另一个解决方案。     

基于MRCI的中国能源消费变动及驱动因素分析

如何减缓能源消费的过快增长是应对能源安全和气候变化的重要课题。通过对投入产出分析原理和无残差的完全结构分解法（MRCI）量化分析发现,产出规模效应和生产结构效应对中国能源消费增长起到主导作用,是主要驱动因素,而中国能源强度效应能有效抑制中国能源消费的增长;人口规模效应和人均生活能耗效应对中国能源消费增长的影响相对较小,但也有一定的促进作用。因此,依靠技术创新、提高能源使用效率,控制人口增长、引导居民向低能耗方向发展有利于减少中国能源消费水平。     

Structural transformation in emerging economies: leading sectors and the balanced growth hypothesis

The paper uses the World Input-Output Database to address patterns of structural transformation in BRIC countries, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico and Turkey. Sectoral drivers of aggregate labour productivity growth, and the relative importance of within-sector versus employment reallocation effects on aggregate labour productivity growth, are evaluated using growth accounting decomposition methods. Decomposition results are used to assess how patterns of structural transformation relate to macroeconomic performance in terms of aggregate labour productivity, output and employment growth. Together with the construction of ‘Hirschman compliance indices’, decomposition results are also used to shed light on the balanced versus unbalanced growth debates. The paper goes on to assess the extent of complementarities between manufacturing and information and communications technology-intensive advanced services through intermediate inputs, comparing the eight emerging countries with G7 countries over time.     

Competing on the edge: Implications of network position for internationalizing small- and medium-sized enterprises

Three generic competitive strategies attributed to internationalizing SMEs of targeting niches, differentiating products and leveraging networks fail to adequately explain how SMEs win customers in other countries against both large and small competitors. This study distinguishes competitive strategy (how firms compete) from competitive advantage, and from competitive engagements where firms deploy their competitive advantages to win customers within business network relationships. By abductively reasoning from the competitive engagements entered into by the internationalizing SMEs from the Fleet Management Systems industry segment in New Zealand, we show that these firms often compete with foreign rivals by using their position on the edge of a business network to leverage information asymmetries across structural holes. We contribute by integrating this conception of internationalizing SME competitive strategy with the business network foundations of the Uppsala internationalization process model.     

Do rice prices follow a random walk? Evidence from Markov switching unit root tests for Asian markets

This study revisits the issue of mean reversion in the import rice prices of six Asian countries over the period between 1995 and 2015. Augmented Dickey Fuller tests with a conventional linear regression model support the presence of a unit root in the levels of the price data. However, when regressions allow for Markov switching in coefficients and variances to capture periodic shifts in levels and volatilities, there is strong evidence against the unit‐root null hypothesis in favor of stationarity over much of the observation period.