组织决策的理性限制及其修正——兼谈员工参与决策对组织绩效的影响

本文分析了高效的组织绩效对组织决策的理性要求及这种理性要求的现实可行性 ,指出由于人类的理性有限及组织决策依赖于决策的制定者和实施者 ,所以组织决策也有其理性限制 ,要求完全理性的决策是不现实的。并在分析的基础上提出 ,可以通过扩大组织决策的理性边界及其可实现性来提高组织绩效。最后 ,对员工参与决策的实现提出了可操作性的建议。     

Spillovers in Exchange Rates and the Effects of Global Shocks on Emerging Market Currencies

This paper provides an investigation into the spillover effects of exchange rate returns and volatility for developed and emerging market currencies, using data from 1997 to 2011. The results suggest that spillovers in exchange rate returns have increased steadily over time, in moderate reaction to economic events. In contrast, spillovers in total observed volatility (measured by squared returns) react more strongly to economic events, and this transmission has remained at a relatively high level since the global financial crisis. Furthermore, over the course of time, global shocks would appear to account for a larger proportion of aggregate exchange rate volatility (and the relative importance of domestic shocks has declined). The paper also considers whether the increase in volatility spillover is due to sudden shocks, or whether it is due to changes in the stochastic trend of the underlying volatility process. The results suggests that in most cases, this increase is due to sudden shocks, however, in certain instances country‐specific events may perpetuate changes to the trend of the underlying volatility spillover.     

初选阶段知识联盟成员评价与选择模型

根据知识联盟成员选择与形成的实际过程,将知识联盟成员的选择分为初选和谈判(精选)两个阶段。在综合国外联盟实践经验及影响联盟成败的实证性研究结论的基础上,分析了知识联盟成员初选阶段影响联盟成败的关键变量,以此构建了知识联盟成员初选模型,并依据指标间的相互关系,提出了基于二值变量的初选阶段评价方法。     

The (Dis)Advantage of Friendship on Information Search and Satisfaction

Across four experiments, and focusing on consumer behaviour in a high uncertainty market (i.e., a used car market), this research shows that prior to a purchase, buyers are less motivated to search for information when they purchase a product from a friend (compared to someone they do not know). We also show that buyers are more willing to search for information after a transaction when sellers are their friends, a reversal in search behaviour due to the greater social risk that buyers bear when dealing with a friend. Finally, this research shows that both the transaction outcome (i.e., positive versus negative) and the buyer–seller relationship determine the degree to which people are satisfied or dissatisfied with a seller. Copyright © 2018 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

知识交流视角下孵化网络动态演化与层级关联研究——以T孵化器网络为例

基于知识交流视角，构建孵化载体、在孵企业、服务机构分层嵌入的孵化网络模型框架，通过调研数据分析以T孵化器为核心节点的孵化网络拓扑结构动态演化过程，探究孵化网络不同层级之间知识交流相互关联的特点。结果表明，T孵化器网络密度呈指数下降，平均度稳中有升、增幅缓慢，平均路径长度和网络中心势呈对数增长，平均聚类系数在高值区间缓慢下降至稳定状态；T孵化器网络在演化过程中表现出自组织、无标度和小世界的复杂网络特性；“T孵化器-在孵企业”网络与“在孵企业-服务机构”网络之间、“T孵化器-服务机构”网络与“在孵企业-服务机构”网络之间的知识交流频次显著正相关。     

Age‐Dependent Increasing Risk Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle

We introduce a new preference structure—age‐dependent increasing risk aversion (IRA)—in a three‐period overlapping generations model with borrowing constraints, and examine the behavior of equity premium in this framework. We find that IRA preferences generate results that are more consistent with U.S. data for the equity premium, level of savings and portfolio shares, without assuming unreasonable levels of risk aversion. We find that the relative difference between the two risk aversions (how much more risk‐averse old agents are relative to the middle‐aged) matters more than the average risk aversion in the economy (how much more risk‐averse both cohorts are). Our findings are robust with respect to a number of model generalizations.     

斜拉-刚构组合体系桥零号块空间应力分析

以河谷汉江公路大桥斜拉桥主桥部分作为依托工程,针对其零号块空间受力问题,采用有限元软件midas FEA建立零号块有限元模型并进行相应分析.以施工过程中成桥运营阶段最大弯矩工况、最大剪力工况以及施工阶段最大双悬臂工况为控制计算工况,分析3种工况下零号块最不利内力情况.研究表明,在现有的设计条件下,结构受力可满足规范要求,相应的设计细节可为类似的工程提供借鉴.     

The effect of the euro on foreign direct investment

In this paper the recent effect of the European Monetary Union on inward FDI-flows is examined using a difference-in-differences approach. The estimated results show that the introduction of the euro raised inward FDI flows by approximately 16% within the euro area, by approximately 11% to non-members and weakly by around 8% from non-member countries into the euro area. Moreover, the geographical effects of the euro are explored. The results show partial agglomeration tendencies for the euro area. There are also some indications of increased importance of vertical specialization in the sample.     

BIG QUESTIONS IN AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC HISTORY: FROM THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN1

The conventional story of Australian economic history is worth challenging. Rather than just assuming a national economy with conventional turning points such as Federation, economic historians would do well to investigate more complex processes like the interplay between regions, races and development, and the changing patterns of interaction with the outside world. The big question for economic historians is whether in the future they can undertake economic research which informs history and so contributes to the national debate.