中国科技政策良好体现环境保护的影响因素研究

随着绿色发展上升为事关国家发展理念的全局性政策需求,环境保护因素如何良好地体现在中国公共政策体系尤其是非环境保护类公共政策体系中已成为一个全局性、战略性和跨部门的重大政策问题。然而,现有研究对中国科技政策体现和推动环境保护的作用及其背后影响因素和规律的探索却较少。从公共科技政策对环境保护具有系统重要性的视角切入,通过对1949-2015年全时段、全样本量的中国体现环境保护因素的科技政策变迁进行结构化或半结构化政策文本分析,回答“哪些因素影响着环境友好型公共科技政策的形成”这一研究问题。研究结论是中国科技政策体现环境保护的政策安排具有阶段性特征,“多”并不必然等于“好”。进一步指出,当前环境友好型公共科技政策需要具备政策制定高度、清晰的高层次全局动员治理手段、高效的多部门政策协同和充分的各级资源配置4个方面。力图在理论层面拓展非环境保护类公共政策体现及推动环境保护的政策体系框架,并首次在实践层面就改进中国科技政策对环境保护的体现给出了相应定量值,以测度什么样的“多”才会等同于“好”,不仅将加强对环境保护与科技政策之间关系的认知,还将为环境友好型公共科技政策的制定提供参考。     

基于3T理论的城市创意产业发展路径研究

我国城市化进程中出现的城市制造能力和创造能力的严重不匹配,致使一些城市经济发展处于产业链的低端。近20年来,西方城市大力推进创意产业这一新经济战略概念,其成果证明文化创意与城市经济发展关系密切。研究创意产业的3T理论,并结合我国城市发展的实际情况,试图打破城市对于传统发展模式的路径依赖,为我国城市创意产业经济的可持续发展提供现实的路径选择。     

江苏省大中型工业企业科技投入与科技产出的灰色关联分析

研发既是企业技术创新能力的基础,也是其提高核心竞争力的关键。采用灰色关联分析方法分析江苏省企业科技投入与科技产出之间的关联程度。结果表明,科技经费支出、技术改造费用支出对于科技产出具有重要的推动作用。企业通过灰色预测,可提前合理安排资金,从而促进科技投入与科技产出和谐发展。企业在发展过程中,应加大资金支持力度,从而更加有效地推动科技发展,不断增强企业发展动力,实现可持续发展。     

Structural Change And Innovation In U.S. Telecommunications

This paper reexamines broadly. from the standpoint of innovation, the arguments for vertical integration in the U.S. telecommunications industry in light of structural change since the breakup of the Bell System. While basic and applied research became the casualty of the 1984 breakup and the 1995 AT&T split, there is no evidence that the pace of innovative activity and productivity has slowed. Evidence from R&D and patent data suggests some acceleration of innovative activity. However. the service segment of the industry ceased to be the center of technological innovation. The source of future innovation seems to lie in the telecommunications and Internet equipment firms and independent software firms. The emergence of the competitive stand-alone software industry, combined with a trend towards open operating systems and customer demand for greater flexibility, and growing substitution of technology alliances for in-house R&D appear to have undermined the case for vertical integration in the telecommunications industry. From the standpoint of business strategy, the question of whether a firm like AT&T, notwithstanding its huge investments in cable facilities, can develop distinctive and sustainable capabilities through horizontal expansion and ubiquity and one-stopshopping marketing alone remains open.     

从澳大利亚科学国际化评估结果看科技国际化的重要性

近年,澳大利亚等许多西方国家纷纷开展科教国际化评估和研究。研究表明：世界科技重心正在向东和南转移,亚洲和南美国家的科技产出占世界的比重快速提高;澳大利亚和OECD其他国家国际合作论文的比重快速增加,国际合作论文成为论文增长的主要来源;合作发表论文的引用率明显高于本国发表论文的引用率,国际合作论文成为论文引用率提高的重要原因。由此表明：科技国际化已成为全球科技创新的重要趋势,是提高科技创新效率、增强科技竞争力和国际影响力的重要途径。     

Investor Attention and Earnings Management around the World

This study examines the determinants of earnings management in an international setting using the limited investor attention model of Hirshleifer and Teoh ( 2003 ). The model predicts that investor attention reduces earnings management. I use analyst following, institutional ownership, and Big N auditor choice to proxy for investor attention. I have four key findings. First, I document that financial analysts curb earnings management in U.S. firms but not in non‐U.S. firms. Second, I document that institutional block‐holdings curb earnings management across the world. Third, Big N auditors reduce earnings management in U.S. firms but not in non‐U.S. firms. Fourth, I document that corporate governance mechanisms reduce earnings management in U.S. firms but not in non‐U.S. firms.     

Fuzzy logic,trading uncertainty and technical trading

From the market microstructure perspective, technical analysis can be profitable when informed traders make systematic mistakes or when uninformed traders have predictable impacts on price. However, chartists face a considerable degree of trading uncertainty because technical indicators such as moving averages are essentially imperfect filters with a nonzero phase shift. Consequently, technical trading may result in erroneous trading recommendations and substantial losses. This paper presents an uncertainty reduction approach based on fuzzy logic that addresses two problems related to the uncertainty embedded in technical trading strategies: market timing and order size. The results of our high-frequency exercises show that ‘fuzzy technical indicators’ dominate standard moving average technical indicators and filter rules for the Euro-US dollar (EUR-USD) exchange rates, especially on high-volatility days.     

A. Palmström

Abstract

1. Mr R. Frisch has recently ¹ Ragnar Frisch: Sur les semi-invariants et moments employés dans l'étude des distributions statistiques, Oslo, 1926 (Det Norske VidenskabsAkademis Skrifter, II N:o 3), p. 26. established the interesting identity     

Remittances in Mexico and their unobserved components

ABSTRACT

The present study aims to determine the common trends and the permanent and transitory components of remittances received by Mexican households. This is done by estimating a small Dynamic Factor Model (DFM), using the approach first proposed by Gonzalo and Granger [1995. “Estimation of Common Long-memory Components in Cointegrated Systems.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13 (1): 27–35], determining the number of common trends subject to the cointegration results. The study also shows the similarities between this small DFM with respect to large DFM, which are widely used in the econometric literature. The results indicate the presence of one cointegration relationship. Consequently, there are four common trends. The cointegration relationship is negatively dominated by Mexico's economic activity and positively by the US industrial production. The effects of the exchange rate and the US unemployment rate are positive, but less relevant. This economic scenario leads to remittances exceeding its permanent component.     

The sufficiency strategy: Would rich-world frugality lower environmental impact?

One alleged weapon against unsustainable environmental impact is for the wealthy to consume less. This sufficiency strategy is to complement the efficiency strategy of lowering ratios of resource inputs to economic outputs; the former would reduce the affluence factor in I = PAT, the latter the technology factor. That the latter strategy suffers from a consumption rebound is widely recognized. This paper identifies a similar rebound when the affluence factor is autonomously lowered: The lower initial demand lowers prices, which in turn stimulates new demand by others. The strategy moreover addresses only the rich, raising questions of its theoretical maximum efficacy. Its proponents usually conflate frugality with the North-South dichotomy and intragenerational with intergenerational equity. Moreover, there are difficulties with the supporting arguments that frugality is good for one’s own sake as well as for the environment, and that the rich should ‘lead the way’ to living more lightly. Personal behaviour change is furthermore not a substitute for international political efforts. Finally, since all changes in right-side factors of the I = PAT equation change other right-side factors, such indirect attacks on impact should be abandoned in favor of supply and emissions quotas.