政府投资项目代建制模式风险管理研究

针对政府投资项目代建模式的风险,分析找出其产生风险的根源。运用风险控制和风险转移的手段,提出相应的风险管理措施,为以后代建制项目的风险管理提供一定参考。     

Portfolio characteristics of outward foreign direct investment and dynamic performance of emerging economy firms: An option portfolio perspective

In recent decades, emerging economy (EE) firms have taken an aggressive approach to international expansion. Drawing upon option portfolio theory, this study develops the characteristics of the OFDI portfolio based on two attributes of a portfolio and two dimensions of host environments. We examine how the characteristics of the OFDI portfolio dynamically influence the OFDI?performance linkage. Using a sample of 545 Chinese listed multinational firms during the period 2009–2018, we find EE firms’ OFDI contributes more to short-term performance when the OFDI portfolio features a higher overall quality of host institutions or a higher diversity of strategic factor market developments in the host countries. However, over a relatively long period, EE firms’ OFDI contributes more to long-term performance when the portfolio features a higher overall diversity of strategic factor markets and institutional environments. These findings offer further knowledge on the OFDI?performance link in emerging economies.     

黄河流域生态补偿政策对企业环保投资的影响——基于重污染行业民营企业的经验数据

采用黄河流域九省区重污染上市企业2006—2015年的面板数据,通过构建多期双重差分模型,研究黄河流域生态补偿政策对民营企业环保投资的影响。实证结果表明,黄河流域生态补偿政策的实施推动了民营企业环保投资的增长。进一步分析表明,在经济竞争力强的地区、存在政企关系的民企中,黄河流域生态补偿政策对民营企业环保投资的促进作用更大。黄河流域生态补偿政策的实施要充分考虑政企互动在其中的作用,不断推动各地区协同共治,切实保障黄河流域高质量发展。     

民间资本进入铁路的障碍分析

通过对民间资本进入铁路障碍的剖析,认为产权的缺失是阻碍民间资本进入的最大障碍,现行的利益分配体制极大挫伤民间资本进入积极性,对保护投资者的政策法规不完善增加了民间资本进入的风险。建议出台铁路投资法,给予民间投资者法律和政策上的支持,同时结合铁路特性,确定合适的合资铁路方式。     

日本财政投融资的转型及启示

历史上日本的财政投融资经历了两次转型，两次转型的动因、内容及效果各不相同。其早期财政投融资成功的经验及后来失败的教训，对于如何提高我国财政投资效率、防范财政投资风险以及寻求以财政投资为主的财政政策的转型提供了有益的启示。     

The global economic consequences of the Uruguay Round

This paper examines the provisions of the recently completed Uruguay Round and evaluates the qualitative and quantitative effects of the Round on major countries and regions of the world. The implications of the Uruguay Round are measured using the G-cubed multicountry model. This model captures macroeconomic and sectoral linkages within the global economy. This study differs from other studies in that it considers the dynamic adjustment path, the impact of expectations formation, and the sectoral as well as macroeconomic consequences of the Round. The results are compared with other studies of the Uruguay Round. Ignoring major changes in productivity induced by the Round, it is found that the gains to the world economy are likely to be around $200 billion (1990) per year by the year 2000. The distribution of the gains across regions from the Round differ from other studies because of the adjustment of international capital flows. Private capital flows to regions that undertake the most extensive liberalization initially worsen their trade positions. In regions that liberalize less and experience a capital outflow, the production gains tends to be less than conventional studies find. The adjustment of private capital has important implications for exchange rates, and therefore for the adjustment of the international trading system over the decade of the implementation of the Round.     

Internal Finance and Corporate Investment

This paper examines Pecking Order/Free Cash Flow behavior in small ($25–$50 million), medium ($100–250 million), and large ($1000 million and over) firms. The purpose is to proffer an explanation for the important role of cash flow on the investment expenditure of firms that is more complete than the commonly given accounts. The Pecking order theory (PO) emphasizes the value‐enhancing influence of cash flow, while the free cash flow hypothesis (FCF) underscores its value‐destroying effect. Using the vector error correction model, we find that although the overall behavior of small firms support the pecking order theory, the cash flow of these firms does not have any causal effect on their investment. We further find evidence of free cash flow theory in large firms.     

证券市场在经济增长中的作用

用实证和时间序列的方法研究了我国证券市场发展和经济增长之间的关系,提出了证券市场把储蓄转化成投资,是证券市场促进经济增长的主要作用。     

2003年中国经济形势分析与2004年预测

中国经济2003年取得了骄人的成绩,2004年将步入协调高速发展的轨道。     

外商对华投资市场战略差异的实证分析

通过探讨美国、日本、韩国、欧盟、新加坡等国家及中国港台地区在华投资市场战略差异的影响因素，运用实证研究的方法验证经典的国际投资理论是否能够解释外资在中国投资的现实。研究发现，长期占领中国市场是影响美国和欧洲在华投资的最重要因素，美欧与中国制造业工资成本之间的差异与其在华投资呈现负相关性。因此，与投资相关的研发和配套投资的本土化战略都具有长期性和战略性。