内外生双重约束下农村外生与内生金融的融合

我国二元的农村金融结构,面临着内生外生双重约束及其交互作用,表现为均衡和非均衡的双重信贷配给,导致了供需失衡和有效供求的双重不足。应降低农村金融市场的进入壁垒,完善农村正规金融机构改革,逐步放宽利率约束,以消除外生约束,增加有效供给;通过内生金融与外生金融的联合来降低内生性约束,同时大力提升农村内生性发展动力,真正释放农村真实有效的信贷需求;从而实现农村金融的总供求均衡。     

中国式分权下的电力需求与经济增长

在中国式分权的背景下,出于缓解自身财政压力和政治晋升等动因,地方政府的投资行为会直接或间接地影响区域电力需求。采用系统广义矩估计方法对1999—2010年30个省区的动态面板系统进行估计分析,结果与理论预期相吻合：财政分权、电力需求、市场化都能促进经济增长,各省区的经济增长、第二产业比重、市场化程度、城市化水平显著地影响了电力需求,财政分权、人口、电力耗能指数与电力需求正相关,价格与电力需求负相关;而在不同省区,同一影响因素对电力需求的作用力度不同。     

基于扩展线性支出系统(ELES)的城镇居民消费需求分析——以广西为例

从基本消费需求、需求的收入弹性、边际消费倾向及增量投向系数等角度,运用ELES模型对2010年《广西统计年鉴》提供的城镇居民收入、消费支出等数据进行分析,探讨优化城镇居民消费结构的途径。     

The impact of relative prices on tourism demand for Mauritius: An empirical analysis

The present study assesses the impact of relative prices on tourism flows in Mauritius. To account for dynamism in tourism flows modelling, a dynamic time series analysis – namely the vector autoregressive model – is employed. The results show that relative price measures have a long-run impact on international tourism flows, indicating that tourists are sensitive to price levels. The relative average cost in the different competing destinations is also reported to be positive and significant, indicating that the impact of relative price changes in foreign destinations competing with Mauritius tourism matters; thus indicating a certain degree of substitutability between Mauritian and its regional competitors’ tourism. Tourism infrastructure, income in country of origin and the island's level of development are confirmed to be key factors in the tourist selection decision. Finally, overall, short-run estimates confirm the above results.     

农村小额保险购买意愿影响因素的实证研究——基于江苏省的调查数据

本文利用江苏省13市379个农村人口的调查数据,建立实证模型分析影响农村小额保险购买意愿的主要因素。研究结果表明,年龄、受教育程度、保险认知水平、近三年的风险情况以及来源地等因素对农村人口购买小额保险的意愿具有显著影响,而就业状况、家庭年收入、储蓄情况、人均拥有土地情况以及保单持有状况等因素的影响不太显著。     

人民币升值及我国的应对措施

人民币升值已经是我国无法回避的问题。总体来看,在现阶段对于我国宏观经济均衡目标而言,人民币升值比不升值对我国经济更有利。但人民币升值的速度取决于我国企业对人民币升值的承受能力、我国扩大内需的能力、我国政府掌控人民币汇率的能力以及热钱流入的速度和资产价格泡沫的大小等。其中,扩大内需是最根本的决定因素。本文提出了在短期内扩大内需以应对人民币升值的两个主要措施,即放松计划生育政策和进行大规模生态开发。     

税收政策与居民消费需求——基于结构效应视角的新思考

本文运用税收经济效应原理系统阐释所得税、商品税与财产税对居民消费需求的作用机制,在考察我国税制结构整体状况及其对居民消费需求负面影响的基础上,通过建立动态面板数据模型与采用GMM估计方法实证估计税收政策对居民消费需求的结构效应,结果发现：一方面,财产税挤入居民消费;另一方面,商品税和所得税均挤出居民消费需求,但开征利息税能够显著降低个人所得税对居民消费需求的抑制效应。基于理论分析与实证估计结果,本文认为,政府为了提高税收政策对居民消费需求调节的针对性与激励效果,应充分发挥税收政策的结构效应,积极推进与实行“有增有减”的新一轮税制改革,构建与扩大居民消费需求相协调的税制结构。     

消费需求与国内旅游消费需求的周期性波动同步吗——基于MS-VAR模型时变特征的分析

系统把握消费需求与国内旅游消费需求的周期运行规律与联动机制,是提升我国消费需求与旅游消费需求的协同增长水平、促进需求结构转型升级的关键。文章基于宏观动态演进视角,构建马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归模型（MS-VAR）,通过变量协整分析、模型拟合、周期阶段划分以及格兰杰因果关系检验等动态计量分析过程探究二者周期联动规律。结果证实,消费需求与国内旅游消费需求的周期波动具有同步性,且这一关系形式实则是消费需求周期波动引发旅游消费需求同步变动的结果。文章认为,二者周期同步变动本质上是经济转型过程中,消费结构根据实际购买力水平和消费倾向,不断变更总体消费规模和服务型消费比重,以实现整体消费与局部支出协同增长的自组织与他组织过程。增强二者协同增长水平和推动消费结构优化转型,则需要产业政策与消费政策的共同调节和适时引导。     

On the impacts of carbon tax and technological progress on China

Using a dynamic national computable general equilibrium model, we investigate the impact of carbon tax and energy efficiency improvement on the economy and environment of China. The Chinese social account matrix is presented based upon the latest input–output table (2012 IO table) and other data. The business as usual (BAU) scenario is designed according to several forecasts about China by 2030, followed by six policy scenarios, including different levels of carbon tax and technological progress as well as their combinations. The results show that carbon tax will frustrate the overall economic growth slightly. The CO₂ emission will be 13.81% lower in 2030 compared to BAU case if the carbon tax scheme is carried out at a rate of 200 RMB/ton of CO₂. Technological progress will stimulate the economic growth, enrich the household and government income, increase total investment and make most sectors prosperous with the exception of energy industries.     

Empirical research on time-varying characteristics and efficiency of the Chinese economy and monetary policy: evidence from the MI-TVP-VAR model

Based on the general time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model and data mining technology, this study proposes a new extension mixed innovation time-varying parameter stochastic volatility vector autoregressive model and investigates time-varying characteristics and efficiencies of different shock effects on China’s monetary policy towards inflation and GDP. Using sample monthly data for 1979–2014, we utilize typical time points to illustrate the mechanisms between different economic variables via the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and impulse response function. The empirical results show that the monetary transmission mechanism in China can be effective in the real economy, but with delay and efficiency leakage. The average delay and maximum efficiency can be measured through the MI model, which can capture accurate information of economic variables, effectively improving the precision of macroeconomic regulation and control. Meanwhile, the difference between the impacts of different channels is obvious; while the impact of interest rates is not significant, the impact of stock market is significant. The action mechanism between GDP and the inflation rate undergoes a gradual structural change, evidently displaying time-varying characteristics and a gradually weakening impact over time.