Did APEC's Trade Facilitation Action Plans deliver the goods?

This paper uses new data to examine whether APEC achieved its aim of reducing trade transaction costs by 10% over the 2002–2010 period. An inversion of the familiar gravity model makes it possible to infer trade costs based on the observed pattern of trade and production across economies. Analysis of trade costs calculated in this way shows that although intra- and extra-APEC trade costs fell during the sample period, they did not do so substantially more quickly than elsewhere in the world. Indeed, the region taken as a whole did not meet the 10% reduction goal. However, a considerable number of individual economies not only met the goal, they greatly exceeded it. Consistent with their outward oriented development strategies and leverage of global and regional value chains, some APEC economies saw very rapid falls in their trade costs over the 2002–2010 period, Viet Nam being a standout performer. Overall, about one third of the forum's membership for which consistent data are available met or exceeded the 10% reduction goal. APEC's two Trade Facilitation Action Plans can therefore be seen as having had mixed records of success.     

The effects of tourism on HSR: Spanish empirical evidence derived from a multi-criteria corridor selection methodology

The exorbitant cost of new High-Speed Rail (HSR) lines requires a selection methodology to define which HSR corridors within a network should be built first, and the most suitable evaluation tool appears to be the multi-criteria approach. In any corridor-ranking methodology, and especially in countries with high tourism attractiveness, tourism impacts on HSR should be considered as a variable.In addition to economic geography and destination choice models, the current literature on tourism demand is dominated by econometric models using a single-equation time-series based approach. However little research has been done so far on methodologies to rank HSR corridors taking into account the tourism variable. In 2014, a ranking methodology developed by Todorovich and Hagler was validated using the current Spanish HSR network. Twelve variables were used to create an index to assign scores to the city pairs, but tourism was not included as a variable. The findings showed the consistency of the model for ranking pairs mainly in the top O–D relations; however the tool failed to discriminate clearly between secondary groups of corridors.The aim of this paper is to assess empirically the positive effect of tourism on HSR and to enhance the abovementioned ranking tool with a tourism database. The new methodology is tested by application to 1176 city pairs in Spain, and the results clearly show that the implementation of a tourism variable helps discriminate between secondary groups of corridors and offers a more effective approach for determining the implications of tourism on HSR.     

Impacts of seasonal patterns of climate on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand: Evidence from Aruba

This study estimates the effect of seasonal patterns of pull and push climate elements (rainfall, temperature, wind, and cloud coverage) on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand from the United States (USA) and Venezuela to Aruba. The seasonal patterns were first isolated from the series using the Census X-12 decomposition method, after which the analysis included panel data unit root testing, panel data regression, and Euclidean distance calculation. The results show that both pull and push seasonal factors of climate were relevant in determining the seasonal variations in tourism demand from both countries. The study derives two theoretical propositions: (1) climate is a significant push and pull factor affecting tourism demand; and (2) tourism demand and climate are bounded by intertemporal climate constraints.     

温泉度假村旅游服务质量评价实证研究——以河源御临门温泉度假村为例

以河源御临门温泉度假村为例,以温泉旅游服务质量评价问卷为基础,对影响温泉旅游服务质量的20个因素进行了分析,探讨游客对温泉度假村整体旅游服务质量的总体评价。建议度假村从"原生态"温泉文化、温泉旅游解说系统的建设、特色客家温泉饮食文化、员工培训等四个方面进行完善与提高,提升服务满意度。     

Short-term forecasting of Japanese tourist inflow to South Korea using Google trends data

We utilize the Internet search data from Google Trends to provide short-term forecasts for the inflow of Japanese tourists to South Korea. We construct the Google variable in a systematic way by combining keywords to minimize mean squared or mean absolute forecasting errors. We augment the Google variable to the standard time-series forecasting models and compare their forecasting accuracies. We find that Google-augmented models perform much better than the standard time-series models in terms of short-term forecasting accuracy. In particular, Google models show better out-of-sample forecasting performance than in-sample forecasting.     

Trade credit and the joint effects of supplier and customer financial characteristics

We examine how access to bank credit affects trade credit in the supplier–customer relationships of U.S. public firms. For identification, we use exogenous liquidity shocks to supplier firms in the form of staggered changes to interstate bank branching laws. Using a variety of tests, we show that supplier firms with greater access to banking liquidity offer more trade credit to their customers. We also show that when bank branching restrictions are relaxed in the supplier’s state, the supplier–customer relationship is more likely to survive.     

The development of service quality dimensions for internet service providers: Retaining customers of different usage patterns

This study examines the relationships among relevant service quality dimensions of Internet service providers (ISP) and their customers’ perceived value, trust and commitment. Data was collected from residential Internet users in Thailand. The final usable sample size was 1507. The analyses include segmenting ISPs’ customers on the basis of their usage pattern and evaluating their perceptions of Internet service quality dimensions. In addition, several alternatives models were compared using structural equation modelling to confirm the mediation effects. An ISP’s service quality is influenced by the following four dimensions (a) network quality, (b) customer service and technical support, (c) information quality and (d) security and privacy. The findings reveal that while all dimensions have positive effects on trust, only network quality, information support and privacy influence customer value significantly and information support is the only dimension which is directly related to commitment. Additionally, the effects of customer service and information support on value vary across customers of different Internet usage patterns. The contribution of the present paper stems from the simultaneous modelling of a range of mediation effects which can better help explain the impact of service quality dimensions on customers’ cognitive and affective evaluations in high-tech service settings.     

‘Stop Being a Tourist!’ New Dynamics of Urban Tourism in Berlin‐Kreuzberg

Berlin is witnessing a massive tourism boom, and parts of it can be described as ‘new urban tourism’, which shows a preference for off the beaten track areas and ‘authentic’ experiences of the city. This form of tourism seems especially salient in Kreuzberg. It is here that an openly articulated critique of tourism attracted national attention in 2011 and has not ceased to do so since. This article aims to better understand the conflictive potential of (new urban) tourism in Kreuzberg. We argue that the readily expressed negative attitudes against tourists and the easily accepted link between tourism and gentrification have to be explained against the backdrop of certain housing‐market dynamics. Rising rents and a diminution in the number of flats available for rent are fuelling fears of gentrification in Kreuzberg, while the interest shown in new urban tourism and the comparatively low‐priced real‐estate market in Berlin result in a growing number of holiday flats. Although adding only slightly to the tightening of the housing market, holiday flats render complex processes of neighborhood change visible and further sustain an already prevalent tourism critique.     

Reciprocal effect of tourist destinations on the strength of national tourism brands

The assignment of a brand to a product affects consumer's perceptions not only about the product, but also about the brand itself. The reciprocal effect of the product on its brand can be either positive or negative. Extending the concept of reciprocal effect to a new context, this study analyzed how consumer's perceptions about tourist destinations can affect the national tourism brand. An experiment showed that destinations leading to attitudes that are more positive than the average can strengthen the national tourism brand, while destinations leading to attitudes below the average can weaken it. Brand dilution can happen even when the outcome is effective from the destination's perspective. Because of the reciprocal effect, the determination of public policies in the destination level is usually inefficient from the country's perspective. These results reinforce the need for national brand governance.     

服务贸易:新常态下创新路径

服务业开放水平不高和贸易监管制度不健全已成为我国服务贸易发展的制约。在我国经济新常态下,应充分利用上海自由贸易试验区建设机遇,加快开放以计算机服务为重点的跨境交付、以专业服务业为主的商业存在和以职业资质互认为重点的自然人移动等领域,培育本土供应商和打造公共服务平台,完善服务贸易监管制度、促进制度和统计制度,推进区域拓展和主体拓展,实现我国服务贸易整体创新。