装备远程协同诊断服务共享框架及其关键技术研究

信息化时代复杂装备的远程故障诊断要求充分发挥多系统协同诊断效能，针对当前异构诊断应用系统间资源共享和服务协同需求，提出一种以Web Services技术体系为核心的远程协同诊断服务共享框架，通过对该框架理论的构建和关键技术的研究推动远程异构系统协同诊断环境的建立。     

Current account adjustment in industrial countries

This paper examines the dynamics of current account adjustment among industrial countries. The purpose is to evaluate whether there is a threshold level of a current account deficit at which it becomes unsustainable and whether it is possible to characterize episodes of adjustment. We identify 25 episodes in which there was a sustained improvement in the current account following a large deficit between 1980 and 1997. We find that a typical current account reversal begins when the current account deficit is about 5% of GDP. However, we also find considerable cross-country variation in the reversal threshold, consistent with a stock-adjustment model of current account sustainability. Reversals are associated with slowing income growth and a 10–20% real exchange rate depreciation. Real export growth, declining investment, and an eventual leveling off in the budget deficit–GDP ratio are also likely to be part of the adjustment. These results imply that current account reversals in industrialized countries are related to the business cycle.     

中国贸易条件变动趋势分析——基于1993-2017年月度数据的研究

基于1993-2017年月度数据研究发现:中国三大贸易条件指数(2010=100)中价格贸易条件上下波动明显,标准差为6.0;收入贸易条件长期稳步上升,近三年相对于最高点下降了15%~20%;要素贸易条件一直呈上升趋势,标准差为66.2.人民币汇率一次性大幅度变动时,中国价格贸易条件有显著变动.人民币显著升值时,价格贸易条件马上明显改善,但维持时间不长,随后又发生逆转.人民币一次性大幅度贬值导致价格贸易条件长期恶化有一定的时滞.国外发生经济或金融危机而中国宏观经济较稳定发展期间,中国价格贸易条件改善.为此,我国应积极推动人民币汇率向均衡汇率靠拢,针对性地采取限产计划,以提升国际分工地位,从根本上改善贸易条件和增加经济福利.     

Application of graph theory to mining the similarity of travel trajectories

Travel mobility has attracted considerable attention from tourism scholars. Studies have extensively discussed discovering key (i.e., collective) movement patterns. Recently, the advancement of information technology has allowed tourism researchers to obtain detailed information regarding travel digital footprints. This study, which analyzes mobile sensor big data, proposes a data mining approach to measure the similarity of travel trajectories by performing a pair comparison of individual trajectory. This method considers the spatial and temporal dimensions of travel flow to help identify trajectory similarity across individual travelers. Considering graph theory, this research also applies graph-based spatiotemporal analytics to identify important insights from complex travel mobility networks. As a result, this study suggests an innovative approach to assess travel trajectory similarity, which can be regarded as a type of data-driven clustering method. This paper also demonstrates the applicability of network science in travel mobility.     

Does the strength of the legal systems matter for trade in insurance and financial services?

This paper investigates if the strength of the legal system impacts on the trade in insurance and financial services in the high-income OECD and developing countries. Our findings reveal a statistically significant positive correlation of rule of law and regulatory quality with the exports and imports of insurance and financial services. Our empirical findings also reveal a negative and statistically significant correlation of contract enforcement with the exports and imports of insurance and financial services. We conclude that strengthening the rule of law and contract enforcement mechanisms can facilitate higher levels of trade in insurance and financial services.     

Assessing preferences of potential visitors for nature-based experiences in protected areas

Visitor experiences have been identified as critical for the sustainable management of tourism destinations. However, researchers have given limited attention to how to measure visitor preferences for different, newly proposed experiences, especially in nature-based tourism contexts. This paper aims to capture potential visitors' preferences for nature-based visitor experiences that would alleviate pressure on the iconic summit of Mount Warning, Australia. Findings reveal a preference for passive rather than active experiences. Consistency between the four measurement approaches used was high. Future studies should consider adopting multiple measures to underpin evidence-based management that informs the design of nature-based tourism experiences.     

External balances,trade flows and financial conditions

This paper studies how changing expectations concerning future trade and financial conditions are reflected in international external positions. In the absence of Ponzi schemes and arbitrage opportunities, the net foreign asset position of any country must, as a matter of theory, equal the expected present discounted value of future trade deficits, discounted at the cumulated world stochastic discount factor (SDF) that prices all freely traded financial assets. I study the forecasting implications of this theoretical link in 12 countries (Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, The United States and The United Kingdom) between 1970 and 2011. I find that variations in the external positions of most countries reflect changing expectations about trade conditions far into the future. I also find the changing forecasts for the future path of the world SDF are reflected in the dynamics of the U.S. external position.     

Managing service recovery experience: Effects of the forgiveness for older consumers

The research studies empirically the role that fairness plays in shaping emotional and behavioral forgiveness among older U.S. consumers (55 years of age and older). A theoretical model is proposed and tested that proposes, consistent with theory on emotions, that perceptions of justice affect behavioral forgiveness through emotional forgiveness. An alternative theory questions whether the effects of justice are totally mediated by emotion. Comparative results support the latter model. The cognitive perceptions of justice display a stronger effect compared to the mediated effect through emotional forgiveness. Additionally, an examination of moderation by psychological age suggests that relatively old and young (psychologically) consumers react in the same manner. While clearly, service managers need to be sensitive to the emotions of senior customers, the results here suggest a stronger role for cognitive perceptions of justice. Thus, service providers need to provide senior consumers with clearly understandable explanations for any service failure and explain how the recovery efforts will compensate for the failure.     

A membership pricing policy to facilitate service scale-expansion

This paper proposes a multi-year membership pricing policy for a service business like a gym chain. In the pricing policy, the equivalent membership price per year is relatively low to attract customers, and the multi-year membership fees must be prepaid in full. The prepaid cash provides resources for scale-expansion by opening new stores. We develop a nonlinear mixed integer programming model to formulate the pricing decisions. Numerical experiments reveal that the multi-year membership pricing policy, from a long-term perspective, is substantially better than the business-as-usual pricing policy (1-year membership) in cash balance, profit, and market share. Yet, the performances of the two pricing policies do not differ much from a short-term perspective. These findings indicate that the multi-year pricing policy may be a good strategy, because it initially attracts less attention of competitors; suddenly it emerges and substantially outperforms its competitors in cash balance, profit, and market share.