上海自贸区的“光环效应”及问题分析--从自贸区“抢位”现象说起

中国（上海）自由贸易试验区自成立以来一直是人们关注的热点，人们在参与自贸区活动中存在着“抢位”等盲目行为，自贸区“光环效应”明显。不良“光环效应”遮蔽自贸区的内在发展，反映了我国在自贸区发展过程中存在系统性和前瞻性的宏观问题。文章从自贸区的本身、人们心理情感、政策环境和信息传递过程四个方面分析自贸区不良“光环效应”的产生原因，并揭示不良“光环效应”可能带来的弊端，如浪费资源、破坏市场秩序、影响社会稳定、降低政府公信力、增加政策执行难度、遮蔽自贸区本质、不利于长远发展等问题。最后，在健康生态的理念下从三个方面探求破解“光环效应”、回归上海自贸区发展“正道”的有效途径，包括信息传递过程要公开、透明、准确、快速；各活动主体需开阔视野、端正认识、回归理性；自贸区自身建设则要立足国际环境，激发内在动力，以制度创新为突破点，构建对接全球经济发展的市场生态。     

Do economic institutions matter for trade liberalization? Evidence from China’s Open Door Policy

Trade liberalization can promote export by inducing better resource allocation and more advanced technologies. Although the literature emphasizes the mechanism of geographic proximity, this paper identifies an institutional effect. Using infant mortality rate as an instrument that is irrelevant to export and geographic effects, we confirm that the openness due to China’s Open Door Policy promotes firm exports. We further document that the positive relationship between openness and firm exports is mediated by property rights protection and corporate autonomy, either of which reflects institutional quality at the constraint on the government’s strategic behavior. In particular, our estimates are robust to different samples, different estimation methods, and endogeneity bias.     

Cultural distance and international trade in services: A disaggregate view

In this paper, we estimate the effect of “cultural distance” on bilateral trade in services. The measure of cultural distance we use is based on scores that reflect country averages of individuals’ attitudes towards inequality, self-orientation, competition, uncertainty, traditions, and indulgence. Controlling for standard ingredients of gravity equations, we show that an aggregate measure of cultural distance has a significantly negative effect on total bilateral services trade. Once we take a more disaggregate view, we find that the strength of this effect differs across various types of services and various aspects of cultural distance.     

The dynamic effects of infectious disease outbreaks: The case of pandemic influenza and human coronavirus

Pandemic influenza is a regularly recurring form of infectious disease; this work analyses its economic effects. Like many other infectious diseases influenza pandemics are usually of short, sharp duration. Human coronavirus is a less regularly recurring infectious disease. The human coronavirus pandemic of 2019 (COVID-19) has presented with seemingly high transmissibility and led to extraordinary socioeconomic disruption due to severe preventative measures by governments. To understand and compare these events, epidemiological and economic models are linked to capture the transmission of a pandemic from regional populations to regional economies and then across regional economies. In contrast to past pandemics, COVID-19 is likely to be of longer duration and more severe in its economic effects given the greater uncertainty surrounding its nature. The analysis indicates how economies are likely to be affected due to the risk-modifying behaviour in the form of preventative measures taken in response to the latest novel pandemic virus.     

营商环境优化能够提升全球价值链分工地位吗*

本文基于世界银行发布的历年营商环境报告相关数据，从OECD ICIO提供的基础数据测算结果的基本事实出发，理论阐释了营商环境对攀升全球价值链的影响及可能机制。以此为理论先导，进一步利用跨国面板数据的计量检验发现：第一，营商环境优化的确对价值链分工地位具有显著正向作用；第二，上述正向作用不仅来自营商环境优化直接效应，而且还通过价值链迁移、创新活动激发、贸易条件改善等中介作用形成间接效应。据此，打造国际一流营商环境对促进中国攀升全球价值链具有重要支撑作用。     

Simulated economic impacts in applied trade modelling: A comparison of tariff aggregation approaches

This paper assesses the performance of two recently developed tariff aggregators in reducing tariff aggregation bias by analysing Swiss beef market liberalisation scenarios. Specific relevant sources of bias are addressed: substitution effects on import demand, Tariff Rate Quotas and overprotection in tariffs. The aggregators are linked to a global large-scale partial equilibrium model and benchmarked against a standard aggregator. The choice of the aggregation method shows considerable effects on simulated economic impacts, specifically if the dispersion in tariffs or tariff cuts is large. A large bias is revealed in simulated gains from trade liberalisation using the standard aggregator. The impacts on traded quantities are found to be overestimated, while price and welfare effects can be higher or lower by switching to alternative aggregation methods. By reducing aggregation bias and depicting negotiated tariff schedules more directly, the proposed aggregators enhance the contribution of trade modelling to evidence-based policy making.     

Threshold effect of economic openness on bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper investigates the non-linear effects of two aspects of economic openness, namely, trade openness and financial openness, on banking system stability. We use a panel of 42 emerging markets from 2000 to 2014 to test whether bank risk-taking behaviour varies with the level of openness. We find that a higher degree of trade openness promotes bank stability linearly. Conversely, the non-linear effect of financial openness on bank risk-taking is evident. When the financial system is not sufficiently open, the impact of financial openness on bank stability is insignificant. However, as the domestic financial market becomes more open, financial openness can help discipline the behaviour of banks, making them more stable. We also find evidence that these effects are transmitted through the market discipline channel. Our findings highlight the importance of strengthening the domestic regulatory framework and transparency as the economy becomes more integrated.     

Working capital (mis)management – impact of executive age

Several recent studies have used the upper echelons theory to explain the impact of personal traits of top executives on various corporate policies. In this, first of its kind, study we find that older executives invest more in working capital; take longer to convert inventories to cash; and pay their suppliers sooner. These findings are consistent with the argument that risk aversion increases with executive age. Our findings indicate that executive age has significant bearing on working capital management policies. This study also initiates new avenues in research relating behavioral aspect of executives with short‐term financial management.     

Political stability and trade agreements: Evidence for ‘endgame FTAs’

This paper empirically examines the idea that Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are more likely to be signed by governments playing ‘endgames’; that is, when governments are about to lose power. Two empirical strategies shed light on this hypothesis. One relies on events that increase the probability of political turnover, the other on term limits. I find that countries are more likely to sign FTAs after the unexpected exit of their leaders, when political instability is high. The key finding is partly confirmed in the term-limits strategy as governments are found to form more FTAs during their last term in office.