MIND THE GAP: UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE NEW EU REGIONS

Abstract.  The paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on regional unemployment during transition in Central and Eastern Europe. The focus is on optimal speed of transition (OST) models and on comparison of them with the neo-classical tradition. In the typical neo-classical models, spatial differences essentially arise as a consequence of supply side constraints and institutional rigidities. Slow-growth, high-unemployment regions are those with backward economic structures and constraints on factors mobility contribute to making differences persistent. However, such explanations leave the question unanswered of how unemployment differences arise in the first place. Economic transition provides an excellent testing ground to answer this question. Pre-figuring an empirical law, the OST literature finds that the high degree of labour turnover of high unemployment regions is associated with a high rate of industrial restructuring and, consequently, that low unemployment may be achieved by implementing transition more gradually. Moreover, international trade, foreign direct investment and various agglomeration factors help explain the success of capital cities compared to peripheral towns and rural areas in achieving low unemployment. The evidence of the empirical literature on supply side factors suggests that wage flexibility in Central and Eastern Europe is not lower than in other EU countries, while labour mobility seems to reinforce rather than change the spatial pattern of unemployment.     

中国转型期城乡收入差距的制度成因分析

中国转型期城乡收入差距呈扩大趋势,城乡收入差距偏大;城镇居民收入增长率明显大于农村居民收入增长率.重工业优先发展战略、二元的价格制度是中国转型期城乡收入差距扩大的历史成因;财税体制、金融体制、户籍制度是根本原因;此外,农村土地产权制度、二元的计划生育政策、制度变迁扩大了城乡收入差距.     

A 10-year retrospective on the determinants of Russian stock returns

We study factors influencing returns at the Russian stock market from 1995 to 2004, putting emphasis on how these evolved over time. We find that the relationship is highly unstable and this instability is not confined to financial crises alone. Most computed statistics exhibit constant ups and downs, but there has been recently a sharp rise in explainability of stock returns. Domestic factors have been playing a gradually diminishing role, while the importance of international factors has been increasing. In recent years, the effect of oil prices and foreign exchange rates has diminished, the impact of US stock prices and international and domestic interest rates has increased, while the influence of monetary aggregates such as gold reserves and credit balances has fallen to practically zero.     

Financial dollarization: Short-run determinants in transition economies

This paper examines the determinants of financial dollarization in transition economies from a short-run perspective. Using aggregate monthly data of deposit and loan dollarization we study the drivers of short-term fluctuations in dollarization and test their importance at different levels of dollarization. The results provide evidence that (a) the positive (negative) short-run effects of depreciation (monetary expansion) on deposit dollarization are exacerbated in high-dollarization countries; (b) short-run loan dollarization is mainly driven by banks matching of domestic loans and deposits, currency matching of assets and liabilities, international financial integration, and institutional quality; and (c) both types of short-run dollarization are affected by interest rate differentials and deviations from desired dollarization.     

经济转型时期的法制与金融发展——基于中国的实证研究

法与金融理论认为法律是金融体系发展的重要制度因素.我国转型时期的金融发展正经历着深刻的体制改革,需要法律制度对金融改革的支持以及对改革成果的保护.所以法律制度时金融发展进程有着重要影响,它们的内在关系是一项重要的研究课题.文章设计立法效率和司法效率两个指标来代表我国法律制度建设状况,用金融深化和金融市场化两个指标来反映金融发展程度,实证检验发现它们之间存在显著的协整关系和因果关系,我国在转型时期的法律制度建设对金融发展有着积极作用和深远影响.加强法制建设是促进我国金融发展的重要措施,尤其需要更多地关注如何提高立法效率;而金融发展如何由当前的强制性制度变迁向诱致性制度变迁转化是需要进一步的深入研究.     

Land use transitions: Socio-ecological feedback versus socio-economic change

The concept of land use transition highlights that land use change is non-linear and is associated with other societal and biophysical system changes. A transition in land use is not a fixed pattern, nor is it deterministic. Land use transitions can be caused by negative socio-ecological feedbacks that arise from a depletion of key resources or from socio-economic change and innovation that take place rather independently from the ecological system. Here, we explore whether the sources of land use transitions are mostly endogenous socio-ecological forces or exogenous socio-economic factors. We first review a few generic pathways of forest transition as identified in national case studies, and evaluate the varying ecological quality of expanding forests associated with these pathways. We then discuss possible explanatory frameworks of land use transitions. We use the case of the recent forest transition in Vietnam as an illustration. Socio-ecological feedbacks seem to better explain a slowing down of deforestation and stabilization of forest cover, while exogenous socio-economic factors better account for reforestation. We conclude by discussing the prospects of accelerating land use transitions in tropical forest countries.     

转型中的财政分权、地区增长差异与公共品供给

现有的分权理论大多强调分权对经济转型的激励作用,却很少提及其负面效应,尤其是无法清晰地解释分权程度与地区经济增长差异间的关系。本文结合Dewatripont and Maskin（1995）提出的DM模型和Zhuravskaya（2000）的模型,构造了符合中国这样区域发展不平衡转型大国的理论模型,并对此进行深入研究,认为：1）经济发达地区分权程度增加对公共品投资及经济增长有正向的激励;2）经济落后地区,分权程度增加很难激励有效的公共品投资和经济增长,政府职务消费反而会增加;3）分权程度的增加很可能会导致地区经济差距加大。     

户籍门槛、发展型政府与人口城镇化政策——基于大中城市面板数据的经验研究

文章从制度变迁视角分析了户籍改革难以突破的原因,在发展主义理念的指引下,如果户籍改革对地方经济增长或财政收支产生负面影响,地方政府可能会拖延或阻碍改革进程。基于大中城市面板数据的实证研究显示,特大城市提高门槛对地方人均产出有正面影响,户籍改革动力最弱。其他城市虽然可以通过降低户籍门槛提高人均产出水平,但率先放开户籍制度可能引发流动人口大量涌入抵消政策效果,地方政府的户籍改革动力随着城市人口规模增长逐步下降。同时,户籍人口增长会带来财政支出的显著增加,为避免户籍化政策对财政支出产生压力,地方政府会通过户籍门槛对流动人口进行筛选,将对财政收入贡献较低或产生明显财政支出的群体排斥在户籍门槛之外。本文认为中国大中城市的户籍制度存在刚性,可以通过收回地方制定落户政策的权力强制推动户籍制度改革,或利用财政政策降低户籍化成本,激励地方政府推动改革。     

基于文献计量的我国创新驱动研究述评

基于中国期刊全文数据库和国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库,运用文献计量方法,对848篇创新驱动研究论文的研究特征和主题内容进行了总结分析,揭示了该主题领域的期刊与学科分布、核心作者群以及机构和区域分布。从研究主题来看,国内创新驱动理论成果划分为国家层面的宏观研究、产业和区域层面的中观研究、企业层面的微观研究3个层次。最后进行研究展望,认为创新驱动产业升级和经济发展的机理仍将是创新驱动系统的研究重点,基础研究和商业模式创新的驱动作用是重要衍生问题,科技金融和知识产权则是探讨的分域热点,创新驱动的绿色化和民主化将成为研究新趋向。