中国产业结构转型中的障碍突破与经济增长

随着生产要素的加速流动,产业结构对经济增长的影响更趋复杂化。文章主要分析了产业结构转型对中国经济增长的影响特征,以及经济增长的几个障碍,并提出相应的建议措施。     

On sustained economic growth with wealth effects

In a discounted one-sector convex model of optimal economic growth where utility may depend on both consumption and capital stock, I derive necessary and sufficient conditions for sustained growth (unbounded expansion of capital and consumption). Conditions for bounded growth and extinction are also outlined. Optimal paths may be non-monotone. Sustained growth may occur even though the asymptotic marginal productivity is less than the discount rate and may require the initial capital stock to be above a critical level. The behavior of the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and capital plays a crucial role in the conditions.     

Russian Competitiveness in the Global Economy

Abstract

Using data on Russia's competitiveness collected by our research team as part of the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report (GCR), literature on competitiveness, in particular Michael Porter's theories on economic development and competitiveness, and benchmarking data from the global competitiveness project for other countries, this paper analyzes Russia's comparative strengths in its macro and microeconomic competitiveness. We investigate Russia's movement in ranks over a three-year period, discussing Russia's strengths in its macroeconomic climate and the weaknesses of its institutions. We illustrate the effects of these on three-key growth industries in Russia: oil, IT outsourcing, and the food sector.     

Vertical Specialization and Trade Growth in Northeast Asia

As the global economy has become further integrated, the international production chain has become more sophisticated, with diversified stages of production located in different countries. Economic theorists have argued that the fragmentation of the global production chain is partly attributable to the high growth in international trade over the past several decades. In this study, we examine vertical specialization in China, Japan and Korea, and its contribution to these nations' trade. Using a multilevel model, it is illustrated that vertical specialization has encouraged increases in trade among all three countries. In particular, China's outcome is remarkable considering how recently it became a member of the WTO.     

我国居民消费增长的未来趋势与现实抑制

经济增速维持高位、就业形势趋好、收入分配格局改善等利好因素支撑着我国居民消费的长期增长趋势。但是,消费率偏低仍然是困扰我国经济发展方式转变的主要困难。收入分配差距大、公共服务不健全、消费环境不佳、通货膨胀、外部不确定性等矛盾同时制约着消费增长。必须长期制度创新与短期政策优化相结合,力促居民消费增长。     

上海第三产业内部各行业的发展与经济增长研究——基于1980～2009年的数据分析

依据行业大类,把上海第三产业内部各行业与经济增长的关系进行深入分析,通过eviews等统计软件对1980～2009近20年的时间序列数据进行实证分析,本文得出了一些重要结论尤其是与传统意义上相抵触的结论。     

青海省普惠金融发展对经济增长影响研究

为研究青海省普惠金融发展对经济的影响,本研究结合青海省2015-2020年的统计资料来分析普惠金融的发展对经济增长的影响,分别从国内生产总值、三次工业增加值所占的比重来衡量青海省普惠金融在经济中的发展现状;用金融机构的存款余额及其贷款余额、财政厅专项资金的投入情况来衡量青海省普惠金融的发展现状。得出结论为:普惠金融的发展对经济增速具有正向作用。     

河南省农村公共物品投资的经济增长效应研究

本文运用面板数据模型分析了河南省农村公共物品固定资产投资对农村经济增长的影响。固定效应模型表明,农村公共物品固定资产投资是造成地区间农业总产值差异的因素;随机效应模型表明,农村公共物品固定资产投资也是造成同一地区不同年份农业总产值变化的因素,即农村公共物品固定资产投资促进了农村经济增长。最后分析了河南省当前农村公共物品供给存在的问题及解决对策。     

中国保险业具有持续的经济增长促进作用吗?——基于期限结构视角的时变参数研究

保险业促进经济发展的相关理论及由实践经验数据所得结论并未达成一致共识,部分学者认为保险业的发展有助于推动经济增长;同时也有部分学者认为保险业的经济助推作用并不明显。本文基于1999~20丨7年财险和寿险月度数据,运用时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)研究保险业对经济增长的促进作用,得出如下结论:整体上,保险业对经济增长能够产生促进效应,并且随着保险业的发展,促进作用愈发显著;财险和寿险的发展均对经济增长产生显著地直接促进作用,在不同的期限结构时点,其持续程度与显著程度不同;此外,保险业对经济增长还存在持续的间接促进作用。该结论对于新常态下的保险监管政策制定者存在一定借鉴意义。