Ranking Crop Yield Models: A Comment

This comment discusses key specification issues that may have affected the performance and, therefore, the ranking of parametric models that were compared in a recent AJAE article. A procedure to obtain the most flexible parametric model specification possible, given the particular probability distribution function on which the model is based is presented. These specifications also allow for standardized and, therefore, more valid comparisons across parametric models that are based on different probability distributions. Finally, the comment cautions against generalization of the rankings in that AJAE article and recommends that these more flexible specifications be adopted in future comparisons and applications.     

北京文化创意产业集聚区建设研究

近年来,北京文化创意产业发展态势良好,成效显著,形成了一批特色鲜明的文化创意产业集聚区。本文在介绍北京文化创意产业集聚区总体发展情况的基础上,着重分析总结出北京文化创意产业集聚区建设发展的四种典型模式,并提出了进一步推进文化创意产业集聚区发展的对策与思路。     

Empirical Bayes analysis of log-linear models for a generalized finite stationary Markov chain

This article presents the empirical Bayes method for estimation of the transition probabilities of a generalized finite stationary Markov chain whose ith state is a multi-way contingency table. We use a log-linear model to describe the relationship between factors in each state. The prior knowledge about the main effects and interactions will be described by a conjugate prior. Following the Bayesian paradigm, the Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators relative to various loss functions are obtained. These procedures are illustrated by a real example. Finally, asymptotic normality of the empirical Bayes estimators are established.     

Does Twitter chatter matter? Online reviews and box office revenues

ABSTRACT

With a rapid rise of text-based social media and online Word-of-Mouth (WOM) activity, millions of people express their thoughts and opinions on a variety of topics. Considering that nowadays WOM is a most influential source of information when guiding consumers’ choice and purchase decisions, in this paper we look at the relationship between Twitter messages (tweets) and cinema box office revenues. Using static and dynamic panel data regression approaches, we show that the frequency, sentiment and timing of tweets posted about a film are correlated to different extent with the movie’s box office revenues, with negative tweets being particularly damaging to the box office revenues. From a managerial perspective, this is important to know, such that film production companies and distributors can adjust their strategy accordingly.     

地方政府住宅用地出让价格跨区域联动模式研究

研究目的:刻画、解构地方政府住宅用地出让价格跨区域联动系统。研究方法:全局向量自回归(GVAR)模型与网络分析工具。研究结果:(1)地方政府住宅用地出让价格跨区域联动系统呈现出高聚类、短路径的"小世界网络"特性。(2)地方政府住宅用地出让价格跨区域联动网络分为3个板块:板块1为"领导人"角色,板块2为"经纪人"角色,板块3为"谄媚人"角色。(3)地方政府住宅用地出让价格跨区域联动表现出明显的空间异质性。研究结论:应该从跨区域联动视角,深化对地方政府住宅用地出让价格形成机制的认识,有效管控地方政府住宅用地出让价格的跨区域影响。     

人力资源计量探讨

人力资源计量分为人力资源成本计量和人力资源价值计量,会计学界已对人力资源的这两方面计量有了一定的认识,并形成了一些计量方式,但这些方法尚有其各自的优缺点.在分析它们的主要优点和不足的基础上,本文建议对人力资源的成本计量应尽量采取历史成本法计价,对人力资源的价值计量可将未来工资报酬折现法和经济价值法结合起来使用.     

Willingness to pay: Who are the cheap talkers?

The purpose of this paper is to determine who is willing to pay (WTP) for a greener event by applying a Contingent Valuation (CV) approach together with an experimental design. To identify the cheap talkers a survey was conducted at the Wacky Wine Festival in South Africa, were 474 respondents participated. Using a Heckman two-step approach, the results confirmed that the decision to contribute depends on behavioural and motivational factors, while the amount is income-dependent. The extent of cheap talking is significant, with a 50% deviation in stated and revealed behaviour. Besides cheap talkers, another category is identified, namely “ethicals”, who contribute their voucher to the tree planting project without indicating that they are willing to pay.     

Pricing a rural development program: uncertainty,indifference, and protest behaviors

This article presents an econometric approach to modeling uncertainty, unwillingness to pay, and protest behavior in contingent valuation studies. For that purpose, a mixture model with sample selection is developed for a multiple‐bounded uncertainty elicitation format. The proposed theoretical framework is applied to evaluate the social welfare impact of implementing a sustainable rural development program. Results show that a “naive” analytical approach that excludes protesters from the analysis would result in significantly higher willingness to pay estimates for those individuals who favor the implementation of the program and agree to reveal their true reservation prices.     

居民生态补偿意愿影响因素研究

基于条件价值评估法设计调查问卷,对哈尔滨市居民随机调查,建立结构方程模型,以此分析影响居民生态补偿意愿的关键因素。研究表明:影响居民生态补偿意愿的因素有学历、家庭收入、对生态补偿以及生态重要性的认知程度,而且学历和家庭收入有双向关系,学历对居民的生态补偿及生态重要性的认知程度有正向影响。因此,提出提高人们的文化程度以提升居民的生态补偿意愿;加大生态补偿的宣传力度,从而增强居民的生态补偿意识等建议。     

Portfolio optimization based on GARCH-EVT-Copula forecasting models

This study uses GARCH-EVT-copula and ARMA-GARCH-EVT-copula models to perform out-of-sample forecasts and simulate one-day-ahead returns for ten stock indexes. We construct optimal portfolios based on the global minimum variance (GMV), minimum conditional value-at-risk (Min-CVaR) and certainty equivalence tangency (CET) criteria, and model the dependence structure between stock market returns by employing elliptical (Student-$t$ and Gaussian) and Archimedean (Clayton, Frank and Gumbel) copulas. We analyze the performances of 288 risk modeling portfolio strategies using out-of-sample back-testing. Our main finding is that the CET portfolio, based on ARMA-GARCH-EVT-copula forecasts, outperforms the benchmark portfolio based on historical returns. The regression analyses show that GARCH-EVT forecasting models, which use Gaussian or Student-$t$ copulas, are best at reducing the portfolio risk.