Numerical Maximisation of Likelihood: A Neglected Alternative to EM?

There is by now a long tradition of using the EM algorithm to find maximum‐likelihood estimates (MLEs) when the data are incomplete in any of a wide range of ways, even when the observed‐data likelihood can easily be evaluated and numerical maximisation of that likelihood is available as a conceptually simple route to the MLEs. It is rare in the literature to see numerical maximisation employed if EM is possible. But with excellent general‐purpose numerical optimisers now available free, there is no longer any reason, as a matter of course, to avoid direct numerical maximisation of likelihood. In this tutorial, I present seven examples of models in which numerical maximisation of likelihood appears to have some advantages over the use of EM as a route to MLEs. The mathematical and coding effort is minimal, as there is no need to derive and code the E and M steps, only a likelihood evaluator. In all the examples, the unconstrained optimiser nlm available in R is used, and transformations are used to impose constraints on parameters. I suggest therefore that the following question be asked of proposed new applications of EM: Can the MLEs be found more simply and directly by using a general‐purpose numerical optimiser?     

进口货物特许权使用费海关估价之完善路径分析

在经济全球化背景下,涉及知识产权的贸易越来越普遍,而现代国际贸易的特点之一,就是进口货物的商标权、专利权等无形的特许权伴随着有形货物的转移,因此,目前进口货物的特许权使用费成为中国海关估价难点之一.文章在综述我国现行特许权使用费海关估价规则的基础上,针对我国进口货物特许权使用费海关估价所面临的问题,着重就如何进一步完善进口货物特许权使用费海关估价,从海关估价技术、估价法规、估价制度、外部环境等四条路径进行了具体分析,并提出了相关建议.     

Oil risk contracts,business conduct and performance patterns: Data panel analysis

Using the economic and financial performance data of international companies for the exploration, and exploration–extraction (E&E) of oil, as well as the patterns of institutional situation and orientation with the government market and national oil companies or NOCs that receive project offers, we analyze the institutional development and behavior patterns by type of E&E contract, following the strategic actor approach, or the so-called agency theory. Additionally, in light of Mexico's energy reform being implemented between 2015 and 2019, we analyzed the types of license contracts compared to those for production and shared profit. Subsequently, it was determined-through panel data methods in the analysis of 17 companies between 2005 and 2015-that global companies present bigger yields and commitments compared to specialized companies, confirmed by their net income and returns on equity or ROE.     

Forecasting China's foreign exchange reserves using dynamic model averaging: The roles of macroeconomic fundamentals,financial stress and economic uncertainty

We develop models for examining possible predictors of growth of China's foreign exchange reserves that embrace Chinese and global trade, financial and risk (uncertainty) factors. Specifically, by comparing with other alternative models, we show that the dynamic model averaging (DMA) and dynamic model selection (DMS) models outperform not only linear models (such as random walk, recursive OLS-AR(1) models, recursive OLS with all predictive variables models) but also the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) model for examining possible predictors of growth of those reserves. The DMS is the best overall across all forecast horizons. While some predictors matter more than others over the forecast horizons, there are few that stand the test of time. The US–China interest rate differential has a superior predictive power among the 13 predictors considered, followed by the nominal effective exchange rate and the interest rate spread for most of the forecast horizons. The relative predictive prowess of the oil and copper prices alternates, depending on the commodity cycles. Policy implications are also provided.     

Econometrics and equilibrium models

In Rational Econometric Man, Edward Nell and Karim Errouaki present a welcome and timely case for the view that econometrics and econometric model-building may not be the magic tools to solve all empirical questions despite what many seem to have thought they were in the 1960s. Here I examine some possible problems with econometric models that have to do with their usually taking the form of equilibrium models. Some of these problems were recognized by Trygve Haavelmo decades ago. And as Aris Spanos has recently discussed, the problems are often the result of what we say in our textbooks. Some problems have to do with what we mean by econometric parameters and others with how we use probabilities.     

DEMAND,CUSTOMER BASE‐LINE AND DEMAND RESPONSE IN THE ELECTRICITY MARKET: A SURVEY

The increasing use of demand‐side management, as a tool to reliably meet electricity demands at peak time, has stimulated interest among researchers, consumers and producer organiza‐tions, managers, regulators and policymakers. This research reviews the growing literature on models which are used to study demand, customer base‐line (CBL) and demand response in the electricity market. After characterizing the general demand models, the CBL, based on which the demand response models are studied, is reviewed. Given the experience gained from the review and existing conditions, the study combines an appropriate model for each case for a possible application to the electricity market; moreover, it discusses the implications of the results. In the literature, these aspects are studied independently. The main contribution of this survey is attributed to the treatment of the three issues as sequentially interdependent. The review is expected to enhance the understanding of the demand, CBL and demand response in the electricity market and their relationships. The objective is conducted through a combination of demand and supply side managements in order to reduce demand through different demand response programs during peak times. This enables electricity suppliers to save costly electricity generation and at the same time reduce energy vulnerability.     

Contagion risk in the interbank market: a probabilistic approach to cope with incomplete structural information

One lesson of the financial crisis erupting in 2008 has been that domino effects constitute a serious threat to the stability of the financial sector, i.e. the failure of one node in the interbank network might entail the danger of contagion to large parts of the entire system. How important this effect is, depends on the exact topology of the network on which the supervisory authorities have typically very incomplete knowledge. In order to explore the extent of contagion effects and to analyse the effectiveness of macroprudential measures to contain such effects, a reconstruction of the quantitative features of the empirical network would be needed. We propose a probabilistic approach to such a reconstruction: we propose to combine some important known quantities (like the size of the banks) with a realistic stochastic representation of the remaining structural elements. Our approach allows us to evaluate relevant measures for the contagion risk after default of one unit (i.e. the number of expected subsequent defaults, or their probabilities). For some quantities we are able to derive closed form solutions, others can be obtained via computational mean-field approximations.     

On estimating long-run effects in models with lagged dependent variables

A common procedure in economics is to estimate long-run effects from models with lagged dependent variables. For example, macro panel studies frequently are concerned with estimating the long-run impacts of fiscal policy, international aid, or foreign investment.Our analysis points out the hazards of this practice. We use Monte Carlo experiments to demonstrate that estimating long-run impacts from dynamic models produces unreliable results.Biases can be substantial, sample ranges very wide, and hypothesis tests can be rendered useless in realistic data environments. There are three reasons for this poor performance. First, OLS estimates of the coefficient of a lagged dependent variable are downwardly biased in finite samples. Second, small biases in the estimate of the lagged, dependent variable coefficient are magnified in the calculation of long-run effects. And third, and perhaps most importantly, the statistical distribution associated with estimates of the LRP is complicated, heavy-tailed, and difficult to use for hypothesis testing. While many of the underlying problems have been long-known in the literature, the continued widespread use of the associated empirical procedures suggests that researchers are unaware of the extent and severity of the estimation problems. This study aims to illustrate their practical importance for applied research.     

再思社会科学方法论的形式主义与实质主义之争——以经济学的新进展为例

笔者从社会科学方法论中的形式主义与实质主义之争这一古老论题出发,阐明了经济学中的形式主义思想在最近半个世纪的发展是建立细节完全刻画的"全模型",并指出其背后的理念不在于建立普遍规律,而在于形成可以用以启发人们理解经验世界的辅助性认知手段。在澄清全模型方法认识论价值的同时,本文也指出其应用重点不在于形成理想化与意识形态化的叙事,而在于针对局域的经验事实,建立具有确定经验限定意涵的模型化推论,以阐明经验事实背后不易被单纯质性研究阐发的机制。当代经济学方法论显示的这一发展,可以被称为"形式主义经济学的实质主义化",对这一趋势的把握有助于揭示主流经济学独特的认识论价值。     

Welfare effects of the Telecommunication Reform in Mexico

The telecommunication sector in Mexico was highly concentrated until 2013. The sector was mostly composed by a dominant player, a rationed market (low density of services), a poor institutional design, high tariffs, and weak regulation agents. The Herfindahl-Hirschman (HHI) index was 5333 for mobile telephone and 7,029 for fixed telephone services—among the highest scores in the world. In order to promote competition in the sector, Congress approved a reform in 2013 to establish a new regulator empowered to impose asymmetrical rules in the case of the predominance of a single firm. A declaration of preponderance of the dominant player was issued, promoting free interconnection rates and the mandatory sharing of its passive and active infrastructure with the rest of the firms in the industry. The new institutional design led to increased competition in the sector, decreasing the mobile and fixed telephone prices while increasing the coverage and penetration of these services. In this article, an applied general equilibrium model for the Mexican economy is employed to assess the impact of the Telecommunication Reform in Mexico in the telephone sector, consumer welfare, and income distribution. The model is static, encompassing 10 types of consumers (rural and urban and the five income quintiles) and 40 sectors (of which four are disaggregate telecommunications industries). It assumes fixed wages and capital rental prices as well as idle resources. The main results indicate that the effects of the reform are not minor; the drop in telephone prices would reduce the general consumer price index by almost 2%, and the value added would increase by more than 3%, benefiting mainly households in the highest income quantiles.