人口老龄化对中国劳动力供给的影响

本文描述了我国劳动力供给的总体数量以及变化趋势,并从劳动参与率、城乡结构、人力资本三方面进行考察,探讨人口老龄化对于劳动力供给的影响。我国劳动参与率还存在较大增长空间,将会是未来劳动力供给的重要增长点;农村剩余劳动力存量仍看似充足,但其老龄化情况较严重,难以维持当前农民工向城市转移的速度;另外我国年轻劳动力的教育程度和人力资本已有显著提升。因此虽然人口老龄化已经对我国劳动力供给产生了一定负面影响,但由于人口和劳动力的变化是一个长期过程,并不会给经济发展带来突发的、灾难性的冲击。     

Reciprocity in Caring Labor: Nurses’ Work in Residential Aged Care in Australia

Feminist economists identify reciprocity as a motivation for both paid and unpaid caring work. In general, reciprocity describes people responding to each other in similar ways, either benevolently or harmfully. The quality of care is potentially increased when care relationships are motivated by positive and generalized forms of reciprocity and decreased with negative forms of reciprocity. This study draws on nursing literature and two qualitative studies in Australian residential aged care facilities, conducted in 2002–3 and 2009, to identify a new form called “professional reciprocity.” This form of reciprocity involves deliberate and skilled relational work by nurses to facilitate mutual and interdependent exchanges with care recipients that are beneficial to both care recipients and nurses. This study argues that professional reciprocity, as a skill that can be taught, is important for achieving quality care and workers’ job satisfaction.     

A Dynamic Gender Analysis of Spain's Pension Reforms of 2011

Abstract

Gender differences in the labor market have been widely studied and discussed in terms of both research and public policy. One of the contributions of feminist economics has been to analyze and demonstrate links between gendered labor market experience and retirement incomes. This paper presents a methodology to study the dynamics of gender differences among retirees in Spain. The study provides a way to predict the effects of government policies proposed in 2011 that change the institutional framework of social security systems in an effort to address the fiscal challenges of an aging population.     

Nonparametric learning rules from bandit experiments: The eyes have it!

How do people learn? We assess, in a model-free manner, subjectsʼ belief dynamics in a two-armed bandit learning experiment. A novel feature of our approach is to supplement the choice and reward data with subjectsʼ eye movements during the experiment to pin down estimates of subjectsʼ beliefs. Estimates show that subjects are more reluctant to “update down” following unsuccessful choices, than “update up” following successful choices. The profits from following the estimated learning and decision rules are smaller (by about 25% of average earnings by subjects in this experiment) than what would be obtained from a fully-rational Bayesian learning model, but comparable to the profits from alternative non-Bayesian learning models, including reinforcement learning and a simple “win-stay” choice heuristic.     

Chronic Diseases, Labor Supply and Medical Expenditure at Older Age: Evidence from China

China has undergone a rapid epidemiological transition from infectious diseases to chronic diseases. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), this paper documents the profile of chronic diseases among older Chinese people, estimates the impact of the onset of chronic diseases on the labor supply, and examines the correlation between the prevalence of chronic diseases, a household’s medical expenditure and the role of health insurance in reducing medical costs. Empirical results show that the prevalence of chronic diseases is extremely high among older Chinese people and increases sharply with age. We find significant negative effects from the onset of chronic diseases on an individual’s livelihood at work. The estimation results by age and education suggest that the labor supply of the older and more highly educated people is more sensitive to the onset of chronic diseases. We also show that there can be a substantial indirect loss of individual and household income due to the onset of chronic diseases by limiting the labor supply. We find that the prevalence of chronic diseases is significantly associated with higher out-of-pocket medical expenditure. The reduced-form estimation results suggest that people with insurance have lower medical expenditure caused by minor chronic diseases, but this is only the case for women and urban residents. However, health insurance contributes little in reducing medical expenditure caused by major chronic diseases.     

Long-run matching relationship in the Japanese labor market

This paper investigates the long-run relationship among new hiring, unemployment (job seekers), and unfilled vacancies in Japan, using an annual panel data on 47 prefectures for 1972-1999. We find that these three variables are I(1) processes, and are cointegrated in our panel data. Further, we estimate the panel cointegration equation derived from a Cobb-Douglas matching function by the heterogeneous fully modified OLS and heterogeneous dynamic OLS. The estimation results reveal that conventional within estimates could have non-negligible biases.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: October 2003All correspondence to Shigeki Kano. The authors are grateful to the associate editor and two anonymous referees of this journal for helpful comments. Doctor Stephen J. Turnbull (University of Tsukuba) is also acknowledged for correcting English errors in this paper. Remaining errors are due to the authors. The data set and GAUSS programming code used in this paperare available upon request.     

浅谈德国劳资关系对我国建立现代企业制度的启示

西方国家劳资双方的矛盾近年来得到很大的缓解,劳资双方的合作关系发生了较大的变化,为社会稳定和经济发展提供了有利的条件,德国政府通过建立社会市场经济,在这方面进行了富有成效的探索,形成了一整套以两大社会平衡系统为主要内容的社会运行机制和企业组织制度,使劳资矛盾得到缓和,结成了较为稳定的“社会伙伴关系”,对社会稳定和经济发展产生了积极影响,为我国企业制度和分配方式的改革和完善提供一些参考。     

Dynamic employment adjustments over business cycles

This paper uses U.S. monthly industrial production employment data between 1964 and 2000 to examine the dynamic labor adjustments of production workers and nonproduction workers in both the short and long-run. The results from the short-run analysis show that the dynamic adjustment of production workers is consistent with business cycles. However, the adjustment of nonproduction workers is relatively fixed, lags behind the shocks over business cycle changes, and exhibits the quasi-fixed factor property. In the long-run, we found that nonproduction workers and production workers are cointegrated indicating that the two series are in long-run equilibrium.First version received: March 2002/Final version received: November 2003We would like to thank James McClure, participants in the Economics Department seminar series at Ball State University, and an anonymous referee for their comments and suggestions.     

生态学理论在劳动经济学领域研究的应用

把生态学与劳动经济学结合是对传统劳动经济问题的再认识。生态学中的种群、群落、生态系统、生态位概念都可以应用到劳动力市场的研究中。企业的劳动力需求是企业生态的重要纬度,企业的劳动力竞争是基于生态位的竞争,这种竞争对企业生态有密度制约作用。总之,移植生态学的概念和理论可以为劳动力市场研究提供新思路。     

中国工业结构有序变动的劳动生产率因素研究——基于劳动生产力增长率和GM(1,3)模型的分析

灰色模型CM(1,3)很好体现了资本使用量和劳动投入量对下期工业产出值增加率的影响。通过对2003-2005年劳动生产力和灰色模型分析可以看出,中国能源类工业部门产出的增加更多依赖于劳动力的投入;化纤和石油等工业生产率提高呈现出较高趋势,其劳动力对产出值增加的影响度在下降。