基于投影模型的不确定语言型多属性决策方法及应用

研究了不确定语言型多属性决策评价结果与决策者对方案的偏好信息之间存在偏差的问题,提出了基于投影模型的不确定多属性决策方法。该方法通过建立与区间型语言标度对应的术语指标矩阵,及方案综合属性值与决策者主观偏好值之间的投影模型,确定属性的权重,然后运用加权法得到方案的综合属性值,利用已有的可能度矩阵排序公式得到决策方案的排序。最后,通过算例对该方法的实用性和有效性进行了说明。     

An empirical comparison of continuous-time models of implied volatility indices

We explore the ability of alternative popular continuous-time diffusion and jump-diffusion processes to capture the dynamics of implied volatility indices over time. The performance of the various models is assessed under both econometric and financial metrics. To this end, data are employed from major European and American implied volatility indices and the rapidly growing CBOE volatility futures market. We find that the addition of jumps is necessary to capture the evolution of implied volatility indices under both metrics. Mean reversion is of second-order importance though. The results are consistent across the various metrics, markets, and construction methodologies.     

The impact of exchange rates on stock market returns: new evidence from seven free-floating currencies

This paper provides evidence of a significant exchange rate effect on stock index returns using data from seven selected countries practicing free-floating exchange rate regimes. This research uses parity and asset pricing theories, thus placing it within the monetary-cum-economics framework for international asset pricing. In this study, we apply a system of seemingly unrelated regression to control for unobserved heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. The findings constitute evidence of a statistically significant exchange rate impact on stock index returns across selected countries. These findings can be considered as falling under the arbitrage pricing approach of the international capital asset pricing model of Solnik who also used the parity-theoretical framework on exchange rate determination.     

世界烯烃工业生产技术新进展

综述乙烯装置的规模趋向和技术经济指标,甲醇转化成烯烃技术以及增产丙烯技术。     

Modeling Conditional Skewness in Stock Returns

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a new GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model allowing for conditional skewness. The model is based on the so-called z distribution capable of modeling skewness and kurtosis of the size typically encountered in stock return series. The need to allow for skewness can also be readily tested. The model is consistent with the volatility feedback effect in that conditional skewness is dependent on conditional variance. Compared to previously presented GARCH models allowing for conditional skewness, the model is analytically tractable, parsimonious and facilitates straightforward interpretation.Our empirical results indicate the presence of conditional skewness in the monthly postwar US stock returns. Small positive news is also found to have a smaller impact on conditional variance than no news at all. Moreover, the symmetric GARCH-M model not allowing for conditional skewness is found to systematically overpredict conditional variance and average excess returns.     

Equity Fund Performance Persistence with Investment Style: Evidence from Korea

Using a comprehensive database on equity funds in Korea, we investigate the performance and performance persistence with investment style employing the Fama and French three-factor model and the Carhart four-factor model. The paper finds that most investment styles in Korea noticeably outperform the passive benchmarks. In addition, positive performance persistence is observed among funds investing in large-cap stocks and stocks of high past performance. Finally, outperformance and positive performance persistence of equity funds are still present in various ranking and postranking horizons. These empirical findings are in sharp contrast with results from earlier studies on markets in developed countries, such as the United States.     

从固定资产重估看银行资本的提升

分析在国内外会计准则下,通过固定资产重估提升银行资本、缓解监管压力的可行性。根据我国会计准则的相关要求,在固定资产重估方面,目前只能通过投资性房地产重估、固定资产转换与并购重组三种路径提升银行资本,从而达到提升资本充足率的目的,但前两种方法却在一定程度上降低了杠杆率水平,且其市场实施效果也并不乐观。     

资产周期特性与保险公司资产配置策略

在竞争激烈的保险市场上,作为盈利的两大支柱之一,保险公司资产管理的能力日趋重要,而保险公司资产配置是保险资产管理的核心,其研究意义就显得尤为重要。本文首先给出保险资产配置的意义与总体原则,然后从保险资金的来源和特性入手,在详细分析了美国、中国不同经济周期和市场周期下大类资产风险收益特性的基础之上,给出保险公司资产负债管理和资产配置的战略决策建议。     

Determinants of the Method of Payment in Asset Sell‐Off Transactions

Using a sample of asset sell‐off transactions from January 1990 to April 2010, we find that the method of payment used in asset sell‐off transactions is associated with several characteristics cited in the acquisitions research that reflect cash constraints of the bidder. Specifically, bidders facing more stringent cash constraints are more likely to use equity when purchasing assets, while sellers subjected to cash constraints prefer cash when selling assets. Second, we find that the variation in method of payment among asset sell‐off transactions also is partially explained by variables representing asymmetric information. Third, we apply our model to an expanded sample that includes non‐U.S. sellers of assets and find that an equity payment is more likely when sellers are based in countries that have relatively high country risk (more government restrictions), weak shareholder rights, and a weak legal system. Thus, it appears that bidders prefer that sellers share in the risk of the transaction under these conditions.     

The integration substitute: the role of controls in managing human asset specificity

As the integration solution to the problem of specific assets cannot be replicated on human asset specificity because slavery is illegal, economic theory states that control systems substitute for integration through a balanced structure to help align diverse interests. To understand the intricate design features of the balance, we examine a case‐study firm. For low human asset specificity, the restriction and segregation of usable decision rights link with standards. However, incentives are traced to individuals only to the extent task deviations do not create relevant future costs that are difficult to be self‐corrected. For high specificity, incentives are related to outputs rather than outcomes, because outcome variations reduce the attractiveness of maintaining the balance. Subjective assessment is used as an efficient alternate ‘balancing’ solution and decision control is shared when available subjective data are inadequate.