2008年10月份银行间市场运行报告

2008年10月,银行间外汇、货币、债券、利率和汇率衍生品市场整体运行平稳,货币市场利率单边下行、成交量与上月基本持平,短期资金交易比重加大;现券交易大幅上涨,债券远期成交量明显下降,人民币外汇掉期交易小幅增长,人民币外汇远期交易有所下降;美元中间价冲高回落,人民币对美元贬值0.11%。     

立式金属罐平均板厚对静压力容量修正值的影响

罐壁的平均板厚是立式金属罐静压力容量修正值影响量的重要参数之一。通过实例的计算和分析进一步阐述两者的变化关系。并给出了建设性的规避措施。     

分布未知情形下基于Burr近似的VSSI EWMA图多目标优化设计

为了提高过程质量监控效率和降低过程质量控制成本,针对过程质量特性分布未知情形,利用Burr分布近似未知分布,研究可变样本容量和抽样间隔(VSSI)的指数加权移动平均(EWMA)控制图的统计经济多目标优化设计问题。首先,建立基于Burr近似的未知分布VSSI EWMA图,采用平均产品长度、单位产品质量成本分别作为统计和经济指标,构造该图的统计经济多目标优化设计模型 。之后,采用NSGA-Ⅱ算法对模型进行算例求解和灵敏度分析。最后,将该方案与已有几种EWMA图设计方案比较。结果表明,在总体分布未知时,该方案在统计监控效率和过程监控成本两方面都要优于VSSI EWMA图的单一性设计,以及EWMA图多目标优化设计。     

Economics of tourism investment in data scarce countries

Ex-ante economic impact analyses are required to demonstrate the development impact and viability of multilateral loans. These assessments are often performed under tight timelines, in data scarce environments and with limited opportunity for primary data collection. This paper develops a framework for assessing tourism interventions under these challenging conditions and evaluates a US$15 million tourism investment in Belize. This paper contributes to the literature by: (i) developing a generalizable approach to building economy-wide models in data scarce environments; (ii) generating realistic expectations of agent responses with quasi-contingent valuation and auto-regressive integrated moving average methods. Applying the first economy-wide model for Belize, results show that the investment would stimulate GDP by 3% and reduce unemployment from 12% to 10% by 2040.     

Nonlinear Pricing and the Market for Settling Payments

Fedwire Funds is a real‐time gross settlement system that uses a decreasing block pricing scheme to attract nonurgent payments. A bank's optimal response to Fedwire's pricing depends on its perceived benefits to settling nonurgent payments quickly. If the urgency for immediate settlement is great enough, a bank responds to marginal price; otherwise, it responds to average price. We find banks respond to average price, suggesting that Fedwire's advantage over competing services of being able to provide immediate settlement is small. Moreover, attempts to increase demand for Fedwire services by lowering the cost of banks' final block of payments may be ineffective if there is not a corresponding decrease in average cost.     

论调和平均数的实践教学方法

随着社会经济的不断发展,统计学的理论在实践中的运用越来越广泛,国家教育课程设置中已经把＂统计学＂升为一级学科,并且规定其为经济管理类专业的必修核心课程之一,但其在实践教学中面临着诸多挑战。在课堂教学中,应改变过去填鸭式的教学方法,采用案例教学,与学生互动起来,以提高学生应用统计方法,解决实际问题的能力。统计学创新教育、教学改革研究和试验这一重要课题,已经提上了议事日程,只有做好统计学教育的创新,才谈的上统计学实践的创新,因此,进行统计学创新教育与教学改革研究具有重要的现实意义。     

A rating model for loss of profits insurance

Abstract

In this paper we present a rating model for loss of profits insurance for a production system consisting of n production units. Explicit expressions for the company's long run expected average claims expenditures are derived. A numerical example is given.     

2010年4月银行间市场运行报告

2010年4月份,银行间外汇、货币、债券、利率和汇率衍生品市场整体运行平稳,主要特点是：货币市场利率以小幅波动为主,短端Shibor各期限品种普遍上扬,中长端Shibor走势平稳;银行间国债指数大幅上升;人民币对美元汇率月末中间价与上月末持平,掉期价格显示人民币对美元升值预期有所增强。     

The Moving Average Ratio and Momentum

I show the ratio of the short‐term moving average to the long‐term moving average (moving average ratio, MAR) has significant predictive power for future returns. The MAR combined with nearness to the 52‐week high explains most of the intermediate‐term momentum profits. This suggests that an anchoring bias, in which investors use moving averages or the 52‐week high as reference points for estimating fundamental values, is the primary source of momentum effects. Momentum caused by the anchoring bias do not disappear in the long‐run even when there are return reversals, confirming that intermediate‐term momentum and long‐term reversals are separate phenomena.     

改革开放三十年成都理工大学教学质量监控工作回顾与展望

改革开放三十年来，成都理工大学教学质量监控工作经历了恢复、规范、发展和构建四个发展阶段，并形成了如下的工作经验：狠抓教学质量不松懈．始终重视教学质量监控工作，质量监控措施得力，善于总结经验等。展望未来，监控工作还应继续强化质量意识，加强理论研究，并进一步创新体系。